NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	123		Excitement	3.5 [1123]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +29.8%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	2.1 [1065]		LVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): -10.1%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.28	0.03	0.01	16	83%	0.30	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Klay Thompson	0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	15	59%	0.09	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
David West	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.02	-0.04	4	62%	0.08	1	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Kevin Durant	0.07	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.07	0.03	18	60%	0.14	4	-0.06	4	100%	0.01
Zaza Pachulia	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	4	73%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Patrick McCaw	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.05	2	33%	0.03	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Bell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	4	100%	0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevon Looney	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	3	67%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JaVale McGee	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omri Casspi	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	0.00	0.06	6	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.17	0.01	0.05	10	87%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	-0.08	10	45%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bam Adebayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	5	64%	0.07	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.02	-0.03	11	55%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	11	56%	0.03	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Jordan Mickey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.04	0.00	0.05	10	59%	-0.01	1	0.00	2	100%	-0.01
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.05	5	70%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.00	-0.06	8	29%	-0.01	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.12	-0.03	-0.05	10	18%	-0.06	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.8	1.7	27.2	13.5	24.3	2.5	24.3	123.2
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +22.6%

GSW +7.4%

GSW +10.9%

GSW +13.0%

MIA -3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	13.7	17.0	14.7	129.5	102.2	107.5
season	13.7	15.1		112.6	105.4
opponent	14.6	15.1		105.8	105.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.7	15.4	12.4	13.3	13.7
MIA	15.8	15.9	18.9	17.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	64	62	0.59	-0.09	0.68	-0.35	32	-4	36	13.5	14.1	-0.58	17.3	16.2	1.11
Klay Thompson	63	59	0.58	-0.09	0.67	-0.38	33	-5	38	13.4	14.2	-0.77	17.5	16.0	1.48
Zaza Pachulia	33	32	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.14	20	8	12	13.9	13.6	0.31	18.3	16.3	2.05
Stephen Curry	60	59	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.17	20	8	12	13.5	14.1	-0.56	17.0	16.9	0.18
Kevin Durant	56	55	0.39	0.12	0.27	-0.14	18	10	8	13.6	13.8	-0.24	17.1	16.8	0.26
Shaun Livingston	11	11	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.02	2	26	-24	15.6	13.5	2.18	15.7	17.1	-1.41
David West	25	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.19	8	20	-12	14.0	13.6	0.45	16.6	17.1	-0.46
Omri Casspi	51	50	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.09	4	24	-20	13.6	13.9	-0.30	16.4	17.6	-1.18
Kevon Looney	12	11	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	29	-30	15.2	13.5	1.77	17.7	16.9	0.86
JaVale McGee	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	29	-30	15.7	13.5	2.23	17.9	16.9	0.96
Nick Young	30	30	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	26	-24	13.8	13.7	0.09	16.8	17.0	-0.20
Jordan Bell	25	27	-0.02	0.52	-0.53	-0.02	0	28	-28	12.7	14.1	-1.39	15.7	17.5	-1.83
Patrick McCaw	37	38	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.14	3	25	-22	13.9	13.6	0.26	16.1	17.6	-1.50

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jordan Mickey	11	12	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-29	30	17.7	16.9	0.86	15.2	13.5	1.77
Tyler Johnson	53	54	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	0.18	-7	-21	14	16.6	17.4	-0.80	13.5	13.9	-0.39
Wayne Ellington	53	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	0.22	-9	-19	10	16.4	17.7	-1.24	14.0	13.3	0.64
Kelly Olynyk	55	56	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.26	-12	-16	4	16.5	17.7	-1.21	13.9	13.4	0.46
James Johnson	60	60	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.34	-15	-13	-2	16.4	17.9	-1.46	13.3	14.4	-1.10
Justise Winslow	37	40	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.01	-11	-17	6	17.7	16.5	1.18	14.9	12.8	2.11
Bam Adebayo	38	39	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	-12	-4	17.7	16.5	1.21	13.4	13.9	-0.46
Dion Waiters	47	48	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	0.11	-19	-9	-10	16.9	17.1	-0.24	13.5	13.9	-0.46
Goran Dragic	49	49	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.18	-23	-5	-18	17.6	16.3	1.23	13.6	13.8	-0.28
Josh Richardson	62	63	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	0.26	-29	1	-30	17.3	16.3	0.97	13.2	14.7	-1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.57,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.44,0.44,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.32,0.26,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 111, PHI 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.3,0.19,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%
MIA 114, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.59,0.54,0.48,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.37,0.24,0.18,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.7%
LAL 109, IND 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.6%