NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	95		Excitement	1.7 [1306]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +8.4%
Houston Rockets	125		Comeback	1.2 [1223]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -8.7%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mason Plumlee	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.08	9	43%	0.01	3	0.00	3	33%	-0.00
Juan Hernangomez	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	8	47%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	5	75%	0.00	2	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Trey Lyles	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	50%	-0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.08	-0.00	0.08	9	65%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	6	17%	-0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	8	42%	-0.03	3	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Nikola Jokic	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.00	0.08	14	55%	-0.03	2	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.16	0.00	-0.11	5	8%	-0.02	4	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Will Barton	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	0.04	-0.01	0.11	16	54%	-0.05	2	-0.04	5	80%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.25	0.00	0.17	12	104%	0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.22	0.00	0.15	11	88%	0.07	1	-0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	72%	0.06	2	-0.01	4	75%	0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	0.00	0.04	4	70%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.12	0.00	0.11	5	130%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	-0.00	-0.07	16	51%	0.07	7	-0.06	9	89%	0.00
Tarik Black	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	7	57%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	17%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Bobby Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.10	0.00	-0.10	5	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Briante Weber	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zhou Qi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	6	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Clint Capela	0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	0.01	7	50%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	1.6	28.7	14.0	27.2	1.7	23.0	125.8
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +41.4%

HOU +5.4%

HOU +3.2%

DEN -0.0%

HOU +0.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	HOU	NBA	DEN	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	13.0	14.7	92.2	125.0	107.5
season	14.7	14.6		111.2	112.8
opponent	14.8	14.7		105.6	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	17.2	14.5	14.9	15.2
HOU	11.1	13.3	13.2	14.5	13.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	17	17	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.50	17	-47	64	12.5	15.8	-3.31	15.9	12.4	3.52
Juan Hernangomez	39	37	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.11	0	-30	30	14.7	15.5	-0.79	14.1	12.3	1.82
Mason Plumlee	47	46	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.37	-18	-12	-6	16.2	14.4	1.80	12.1	13.7	-1.62
Wilson Chandler	57	57	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	0.27	-16	-14	-2	15.4	15.0	0.46	12.6	13.4	-0.72
Jamal Murray	54	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.12	-12	-18	6	14.3	16.2	-1.93	13.4	12.5	0.96
Emmanuel Mudiay	53	52	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.24	-17	-13	-4	15.8	14.6	1.19	12.3	13.7	-1.36
Nikola Jokic	56	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.01	-12	-18	6	14.4	16.2	-1.80	13.7	12.1	1.62
Gary Harris	64	63	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	0.49	-30	0	-30	15.5	14.7	0.79	12.3	14.1	-1.82
Trey Lyles	52	49	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.19	-20	-10	-10	15.4	15.1	0.27	12.7	13.2	-0.44
Will Barton	76	74	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	0.82	-42	12	-54	15.9	13.5	2.37	12.8	13.4	-0.57

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	56	57	0.48	0.02	0.46	-1.19	57	-27	84	11.3	15.1	-3.76	16.4	13.8	2.62
Trevor Ariza	73	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	-0.54	34	-4	38	12.5	14.3	-1.88	15.5	14.6	0.88
PJ Tucker	73	76	0.42	0.08	0.34	-0.72	39	-9	48	12.4	14.4	-1.93	16.0	13.0	3.03
James Harden	67	69	0.37	0.13	0.25	-0.48	29	1	28	12.2	14.5	-2.37	15.1	15.4	-0.31
Nene	43	43	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.61	32	-2	34	10.7	14.6	-3.89	15.4	15.1	0.28
Chris Paul	55	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.50	26	4	22	13.3	12.6	0.74	16.1	14.2	1.95
Clint Capela	33	35	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	28	-26	14.7	12.1	2.64	15.3	15.2	0.08
Zhou Qi	25	25	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.42	-14	44	-58	15.1	12.3	2.83	13.4	15.8	-2.42
Tarik Black	24	25	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	34	-38	14.5	12.5	2.03	14.9	15.3	-0.47
Troy Williams	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.50	-17	47	-64	15.9	12.4	3.52	12.5	15.8	-3.31
Bobby Brown	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.50	-17	47	-64	15.9	12.4	3.52	12.5	15.8	-3.31
Briante Weber	17	17	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.50	-17	47	-64	15.9	12.4	3.52	12.5	15.8	-3.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 78, OKC 118	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.1%
ATL 65, NYK 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%
LAC 87, POR 116	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	98.0%