NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	125		Excitement	10.2 [55]		MVP	Kelly Olynyk (MIA): +26.4%
Miami Heat	122		Comeback	3.8 [464]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -23.4%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Teague	0.18	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.18	0.00	0.16	-0.01	18	55%	0.26	4	-0.09	6	100%	0.07
Jamal Crawford	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.11	0.03	7	65%	0.18	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Karl-Anthony Towns	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.16	0.00	0.03	11	77%	0.13	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.00	4	90%	0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	4	78%	0.10	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Andrew Wiggins	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.03	-0.09	0.10	-0.03	23	41%	0.11	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.04
Shabazz Muhammad	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyus Jones	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	62%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02	-0.03	0.04	-0.00	13	52%	0.17	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.06
Gorgui Dieng	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.07	2	-0.08	3	67%	0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.26,0.26,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26	0.26	0.13	0.13	-0.00	12	88%	0.46	4	-0.19	2	100%	0.05
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.29,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.13,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.17	0.17	0.01	0.16	-0.00	28	54%	0.37	5	-0.20	5	80%	-0.03
Bam Adebayo	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.10	-0.00	9	54%	0.14	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.05
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.05	0.00	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	0.00	2	100%	0.11	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	0.01	7	67%	0.07	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.04
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	3	20%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.02
Josh Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.11	-0.12	-0.00	10	25%	-0.11	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.07	-0.14	0.02	16	53%	-0.01	6	-0.23	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.9	2.4	30.0	14.6	29.7	2.3	40.4	2.4	17.2	163.0
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	3.2	17.5	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA -32.1%

MIN +41.1%

MIA -8.3%

MIN +45.4%

MIN +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	MIA	NBA	MIN	MIA	NBA
this game	13.8	14.1	14.7	108.7	108.0	107.5
season	15.3	15.1		111.8	105.4
opponent	14.6	14.4		105.8	110.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIN	14.3	12.3	13.8	14.0	15.5	13.8
MIA	14.0	15.4	13.8	14.2	11.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Teague	80	81	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.37	18	-15	33	14.1	13.2	0.90	14.2	13.8	0.35
Karl-Anthony Towns	83	82	0.86	-0.36	1.23	0.51	12	-9	21	14.1	12.9	1.20	14.2	13.7	0.53
Jimmy Butler	83	83	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.46	5	-2	7	14.3	12.4	1.93	14.2	13.7	0.50
Andrew Wiggins	86	85	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.39	-1	4	-5	14.1	13.0	1.07	14.2	13.8	0.37
Jamal Crawford	49	48	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	2	-1	13.1	14.3	-1.18	13.2	14.7	-1.47
Taj Gibson	66	65	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.17	2	1	1	14.3	13.1	1.18	14.7	13.2	1.47
Nemanja Bjelica	35	33	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	2	-1	12.5	14.4	-1.89	13.6	14.3	-0.65
Shabazz Muhammad	26	25	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	2	-1	13.0	14.0	-1.08	14.0	14.1	-0.18
Gorgui Dieng	32	31	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.10	-9	12	-21	12.9	14.1	-1.20	13.7	14.2	-0.53
Tyus Jones	35	32	-0.40	0.90	-1.30	0.04	-15	18	-33	13.2	14.1	-0.90	13.8	14.2	-0.35

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	49	49	0.34	-0.84	1.17	0.10	8	-11	19	14.9	13.5	1.38	12.7	14.7	-2.00
Okaro White	36	38	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.03	6	-9	15	13.7	14.3	-0.55	12.9	14.2	-1.31
Wayne Ellington	9	10	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-3	3	11.2	14.3	-3.12	12.8	13.9	-1.10
Kelly Olynyk	65	65	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.21	6	-9	15	14.0	14.3	-0.34	13.8	13.8	-0.07
Goran Dragic	84	87	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.39	11	-14	25	13.3	16.5	-3.21	14.1	12.9	1.25
Justise Winslow	59	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	8	-19	14.2	14.0	0.15	13.0	14.7	-1.71
James Johnson	51	50	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.05	-5	2	-7	14.7	13.6	1.11	13.6	14.0	-0.42
Josh Richardson	68	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	-1	-1	14.1	14.0	0.12	14.5	12.8	1.66
Dion Waiters	82	84	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.51	-10	7	-17	14.2	13.8	0.45	14.0	13.3	0.74
Bam Adebayo	63	64	-0.98	0.48	-1.46	-0.51	-16	13	-29	14.5	13.6	0.86	14.8	12.6	2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.74,0.58,0.54,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.42,0.52,0.48,0.31,0.33,0.52,0.62,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.36,0.14,0.19,0.07,0.11,0.15,0.46,0.47,0.1,0.1,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 114, MEM 110	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.26,0.32,0.38,0.44,0.63,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.47,0.26,0.24,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.15,0.28,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.27,0	87.0%
MIL 99, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.57,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.05,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.23,0.15,0	86.9%
SAS 92, VAN 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.63,0.68,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.59,0.52,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.29,0.05,0.04,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.1,0.05,0	86.0%