NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	99		Excitement	11.0 [39]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +21.4%
Boston Celtics	94		Comeback	4.6 [166]		LVP	Jason Terry (BOS): -28.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Larry Sanders	0.13	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.06	0.03	10	74%	0.16	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.04
Mike Dunleavy	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.06	-0.01	7	50%	0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Monta Ellis	0.08	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.05,0.08	-0.03	0.11	0.00	21	51%	0.19	4	-0.11	11	82%	-0.03
Ekpe Udoh	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Doron Lamb	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	15	50%	0.06	5	-0.16	10	40%	-0.08
Marquis Daniels	-0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.04,0,0,0,0.06,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.19,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26,-0.23	-0.14	-0.11	-0.01	11	46%	0.12	7	-0.35	4	50%	0.04

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.06,0,0.05,-0.05,0.36,0.3,0.3,0.23,0.29,0.21	0.21	0.10	0.16	0.04	23	65%	0.41	6	-0.20	8	75%	-0.03
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	61%	0.11	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.03	-0.02	9	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	100%	0.05
Jared Sullinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	6	43%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.24,-0.31,-0.31,-0.4,-0.24	-0.24	-0.17	-0.08	-0.02	22	27%	-0.17	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29,-0.29	-0.29	-0.17	-0.14	-0.03	15	13%	-0.29	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	1.6	29.3	15.5	28.4	1.8	33.1	1.5	14.8	151.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +26.2%

MIL +7.6%

MIL +59.9%

BOS -44.6%

MIL +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	BOS	NBA	MIL	BOS	NBA
this game	15.5	14.7	15.4	94.3	88.7	104.1
season	14.7	14.9		101.6	101.2
opponent	16.2	15.3		101.7	103.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIL	14.9	16.3	14.8	15.2	17.3	15.5
BOS	14.5	15.7	13.4	16.1	12.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	77	79	1.03	-0.53	1.56	0.80	8	-3	11	16.2	13.4	2.83	14.8	14.4	0.36
Larry Sanders	79	78	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.32	11	-6	17	15.6	15.0	0.67	14.7	14.7	-0.05
Brandon Jennings	95	96	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.44	6	-1	7	15.4	16.0	-0.59	14.8	13.2	1.63
Ekpe Udoh	48	50	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.19	2	3	-1	16.2	14.9	1.29	15.9	13.6	2.35
Ersan Ilyasova	56	55	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.10	3	2	1	14.9	16.2	-1.31	13.6	15.8	-2.17
Mike Dunleavy	36	36	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.12	10	-5	15	15.1	15.7	-0.58	16.2	13.9	2.38
Doron Lamb	14	14	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.04	1	4	-3	14.2	15.7	-1.45	13.4	14.9	-1.52
Monta Ellis	82	83	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.11	-8	13	-21	15.3	15.9	-0.57	14.3	16.2	-1.96
Marquis Daniels	38	39	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.03	-8	13	-21	14.8	15.8	-0.98	13.9	15.1	-1.16

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	57	56	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.24	7	-12	19	14.6	14.8	-0.22	16.1	14.8	1.26
Jason Collins	30	28	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.06	-4	-1	-3	16.1	14.1	2.03	15.3	15.5	-0.25
Jared Sullinger	29	31	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-4	3	14.0	14.9	-0.98	14.5	15.9	-1.35
Paul Pierce	85	86	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-8	11	14.1	17.0	-2.89	15.7	14.4	1.34
Courtney Lee	54	53	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.18	-1	-4	3	14.2	15.2	-1.01	15.9	15.1	0.81
Rajon Rondo	91	90	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.29	-1	-4	3	14.3	16.8	-2.47	15.8	13.5	2.26
Brandon Bass	43	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.16	-9	4	-13	16.5	13.4	3.04	15.5	15.4	0.09
Jason Terry	65	64	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.23	-10	5	-15	15.0	14.1	0.91	14.4	17.1	-2.64
Kevin Garnett	76	77	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.41	-9	4	-13	14.5	15.0	-0.49	15.4	15.7	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.63,0.69,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.74,0.67,0.7,0.54,0.66,0.69,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.72,0.81,0.66,0.71,0.57,0.53,0.41,0.4,0.33,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.05,0.46,0.55,0.45,0.23,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 118, WAS 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.73,0.73,0.7,0.63,0.55,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.74,0.82,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.19,0.22,0.14,0.22,0.14,0.59,0.54,0.45,0.37,0.33,0.15,0	89.1%
MIA 119, SAC 115	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.6,0.68,0.64,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.81,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.42,0.47,0.54,0.33,0.31,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.46,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.72,0	88.6%
OKC 105, WAS 103	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.53,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.48,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.19,0.36,0.47,0.27,0.54,0.75,0.55,0.32,0.42,0	88.1%