NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	108		Excitement	4.8 [894]		MVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): +8.0%
Miami Heat	112		Comeback	1.7 [1051]		LVP	Lance Stephenson (IND): -9.1%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	-0.01	0.01	10	61%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
TJ Leaf	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	3	83%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	54%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Damien Wilkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Domantas Sabonis	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.08	-0.00	0.09	10	64%	0.03	2	-0.05	8	75%	-0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02	-0.11	0.00	-0.09	10	36%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	0%	-0.00
Darren Collison	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.01	0.03	9	50%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05	0.07	-0.03	0.10	23	56%	0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	-0.01
Thaddeus Young	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.00	0.05	16	44%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lance Stephenson	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.11	-0.01	-0.02	9	21%	-0.04	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.14	0.00	0.06	13	79%	0.10	2	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.08	0.04	10	56%	0.08	1	-0.01	5	60%	0.04
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	65%	0.08	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.04	0.04	-0.05	8	37%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	0.01	0.03	16	54%	0.05	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.02
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	-0.03	9	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.03	0.05	8	67%	0.05	3	-0.07	2	50%	0.02
Jordan Mickey	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.04	0.00	0.06	5	73%	0.00	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	25.1	19.8	19.2	1.7	35.6	127.3
league avg	25.1	2.3	28.6	15.0	27.2	2.3	32.6	134.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.0%

MIA +2.1%

MIA +1.2%

MIA +5.7%

MIA +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	14.2	14.7	108.0	112.0	107.5
season	14.8	15.1		108.3	105.4
opponent	14.6	15.0		105.8	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	15.2	16.6	14.8	12.2	14.6
MIA	14.8	12.8	14.6	14.5	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Lance Stephenson	36	36	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.12	2	-6	8	16.2	13.7	2.49	14.5	14.0	0.52
Al Jefferson	27	27	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-4	4	17.6	13.5	4.06	12.7	14.7	-1.96
TJ Leaf	35	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.15	2	-6	8	15.4	14.2	1.18	13.6	14.5	-0.83
Cory Joseph	59	58	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.41	9	-13	22	14.3	15.1	-0.88	13.9	14.6	-0.73
Damien Wilkins	25	27	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	2	-8	14.2	14.8	-0.63	14.0	14.2	-0.18
Domantas Sabonis	67	67	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-6	8	13.2	17.5	-4.35	14.7	13.1	1.57
Victor Oladipo	76	75	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.35	0	-4	4	14.9	13.9	0.94	14.3	13.8	0.44
Darren Collison	67	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	0	-4	14.2	15.6	-1.41	14.3	14.0	0.26
Thaddeus Young	65	63	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.23	-6	2	-8	14.2	15.4	-1.18	14.5	13.6	0.83
Bojan Bogdanovic	43	44	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	0.09	-19	15	-34	14.8	14.5	0.24	14.2	14.2	-0.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Richardson	83	82	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	0	4	13.9	15.6	-1.71	13.8	18.5	-4.72
Goran Dragic	67	67	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.36	-1	5	-6	14.4	13.6	0.80	14.1	15.8	-1.73
Justise Winslow	55	53	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.26	2	2	0	13.3	15.3	-2.03	15.0	14.2	0.87
Dion Waiters	68	68	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.34	-1	5	-6	14.5	13.4	1.08	14.2	15.6	-1.46
James Johnson	60	62	0.30	0.20	0.11	0.22	3	1	2	14.5	13.6	0.91	14.3	15.2	-0.94
Tyler Johnson	50	51	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	-1	6	14.3	14.0	0.26	16.7	12.4	4.32
Kelly Olynyk	55	56	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	7	-10	14.2	14.1	0.07	15.2	13.9	1.29
Wayne Ellington	32	32	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-1	6	13.4	14.5	-1.08	15.6	14.2	1.46
Jordan Mickey	30	29	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	-2	8	15.1	13.8	1.28	13.6	15.1	-1.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.46,0.58,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.81,0.8,0.9,0.89,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.94,0.99,0.95,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 108, OKC 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.82,0.86,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.94,0.92,0.87,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	96.1%
CLE 103, BOS 123	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.46,0.56,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.84,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.5%
DET 98, ORL 112	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.77,0.84,0.86,0.81,0.86,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%