NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	94		Excitement	7.2 [421]		MVP	Wayne Ellington (MIA): +16.8%
Toronto Raptors	96		Comeback	1.7 [830]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): -13.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.15	0.06	0.03	5	120%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	0.00	0.01	0.04	7	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Rodney McGruder	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	9	47%	0.01	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Willie Reed	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	2	33%	-0.00	2	-0.07	2	0%	-0.03
Josh Richardson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	12	42%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	17	52%	0.08	4	-0.16	8	62%	-0.04
Okaro White	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	14	50%	0.03	4	-0.14	8	75%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.11,-0.04,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	14	35%	-0.10	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.09	0.00	9	61%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	10	64%	0.11	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.04	-0.02	9	45%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.02	0.07	-0.01	5	30%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0	100%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jakob Poeltl	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.05	-0.02	32	51%	0.04	6	-0.10	11	91%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,-0.06,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.15	-0.01	-0.03	14	36%	0.09	5	-0.21	5	20%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.9	1.6	30.4	15.4	26.4	2.6	39.2	142.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +50.7%

MIA -4.6%

MIA -5.3%

TOR +10.1%

MIA -0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.4	14.1	14.8	94.9	93.2	107.7
season	15.4	15.2		106.7	110.0
opponent	14.9	14.5		106.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.0	14.8	15.2	12.9	14.4
TOR	14.4	13.5	14.2	14.3	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	52	55	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.17	7	-9	16	13.5	15.5	-2.01	13.7	14.5	-0.73
Okaro White	28	29	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.04	2	-4	6	15.8	13.9	1.93	13.7	14.2	-0.55
Willie Reed	33	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.11	-7	5	-12	15.6	13.8	1.80	13.6	14.3	-0.63
Rodney McGruder	53	56	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.11	-1	-1	0	15.3	13.4	1.91	13.9	14.3	-0.35
Wayne Ellington	41	44	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.23	-1	-1	0	14.2	14.6	-0.37	14.9	13.5	1.47
Hassan Whiteside	56	59	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-4	6	13.7	15.4	-1.78	14.9	13.0	1.90
James Johnson	80	85	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.43	-2	0	-2	14.1	15.7	-1.61	14.0	14.5	-0.50
Josh Richardson	74	76	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.48	-1	-1	0	14.7	13.6	1.06	14.2	13.8	0.42
Goran Dragic	78	80	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.37	-9	7	-16	14.2	15.3	-1.14	13.7	15.5	-1.85

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	63	60	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.33	7	-5	12	14.2	13.9	0.22	15.6	12.6	2.96
PJ Tucker	59	55	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.37	4	-2	6	13.9	14.3	-0.40	14.2	14.7	-0.49
DeMar DeRozan	81	77	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.48	0	2	-2	14.0	14.6	-0.64	14.6	13.7	0.91
Kyle Lowry	78	76	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.44	0	2	-2	14.2	13.7	0.49	13.9	16.1	-2.15
Cory Joseph	59	55	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.32	3	-1	4	13.6	14.7	-1.04	13.9	15.1	-1.18
Patrick Patterson	47	44	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.09	3	-1	4	14.0	14.2	-0.24	15.0	14.0	0.98
Jonas Valanciunas	64	65	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.02	3	-1	4	14.4	13.6	0.76	13.9	15.5	-1.62
DeMarre Carroll	47	47	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.12	-4	6	-10	14.2	14.0	0.23	14.6	14.3	0.23
Delon Wright	10	10	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.04	-2	4	-6	13.3	14.2	-0.87	14.3	14.4	-0.15
Jakob Poeltl	7	6	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.00	-4	6	-10	17.3	13.9	3.43	14.7	14.4	0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.64,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.78,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.83,0.93,0.91,0.85,0.87,0.85,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.81,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.76,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 102, DAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.84,0.78,0.69,0.8,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.77,0.71,0.8,0.73,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.84,1	92.8%
POR 79, SAS 84	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.79,0.81,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.69,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.82,0.71,0.76,0.77,0.69,0.81,0.83,0.81,0.72,0.85,0.85,1	92.7%
IND 98, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.78,0.88,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.87,0.83,0.68,0.78,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.67,0.79,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.79,0.94,0.95,1	92.5%