NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	106		Excitement	7.6 [347]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +58.9%
New York Knicks	103		Comeback	1.2 [1030]		LVP	Willy Hernangomez (NYK): -16.7%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.59	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.59	0.12	0.48	0.01	16	64%	0.64	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.10
Marcin Gortat	0.18	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.16	0.03	0.01	7	94%	0.18	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
John Wall	0.13	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.05	0.03	15	67%	0.18	2	-0.05	6	33%	-0.09
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.01	-0.02	8	72%	0.10	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Otto Porter Jr.	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	7	44%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Jennings	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.03	-0.01	5	33%	0.02	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	9	40%	0.02	2	-0.10	2	100%	0.01

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.13,0.17	0.17	0.03	0.16	0.02	19	49%	0.19	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.04
Sasha Vujacic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.19,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.00	9	53%	0.11	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Justin Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.02	0.00	12	67%	0.13	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	58%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ron Baker	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	9	60%	0.05	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	12	46%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marshall Plumlee	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	10	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Ndour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.00	5	25%	-0.07	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.02
Willy Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	15	39%	-0.12	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	1.8	32.4	15.6	29.0	1.5	32.5	137.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +67.1%

WAS +12.5%

NYK -29.3%

NYK -2.1%

WAS +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	NYK	NBA	WAS	NYK	NBA
this game	14.6	17.1	14.8	115.2	114.4	107.7
season	14.4	15.0		109.9	106.6
opponent	14.7	14.9		110.0	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	14.2	13.0	13.9	17.6	14.6
NYK	15.2	18.3	17.4	17.5	17.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bradley Beal	71	69	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-4	11	14.7	14.4	0.28	16.4	19.2	-2.76
Marcin Gortat	56	55	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.28	9	-6	15	14.8	14.3	0.53	17.1	17.0	0.17
John Wall	58	58	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.31	6	-3	9	14.8	14.3	0.53	17.0	17.2	-0.22
Otto Porter Jr.	45	43	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.01	10	-7	17	13.8	15.4	-1.56	17.0	17.2	-0.24
Jason Smith	42	44	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	-9	21	14.3	14.9	-0.57	17.6	16.6	0.96
Bojan Bogdanovic	60	58	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.39	-5	8	-13	14.4	14.9	-0.47	17.3	16.7	0.51
Kelly Oubre Jr.	53	52	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.47	-11	14	-25	15.4	13.5	1.84	17.0	17.2	-0.18
Ian Mahinmi	36	35	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.13	-6	9	-15	14.3	14.8	-0.53	17.0	17.1	-0.17
Brandon Jennings	39	36	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.15	-7	10	-17	14.6	14.6	0.07	17.8	16.6	1.21

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mindaugas Kuzminskas	30	32	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.22	5	-8	13	16.7	17.3	-0.57	14.5	14.6	-0.10
Kyle O'Quinn	36	37	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.10	0	-3	3	16.6	17.4	-0.73	13.1	15.6	-2.54
Sasha Vujacic	39	40	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.35	6	-9	15	17.4	16.8	0.59	14.8	14.4	0.45
Marshall Plumlee	22	21	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	7	-17	16.7	17.2	-0.46	14.9	14.5	0.34
Maurice Ndour	43	44	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.09	-4	1	-5	17.0	17.2	-0.24	13.1	16.0	-2.89
Justin Holiday	61	62	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.40	5	-8	13	17.3	16.6	0.73	15.1	13.6	1.43
Ron Baker	51	52	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.06	-9	6	-15	16.8	17.4	-0.59	14.4	14.8	-0.45
Courtney Lee	59	61	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.32	-1	-2	1	17.2	16.9	0.27	14.5	14.8	-0.27
Willy Hernangomez	54	55	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.31	-3	0	-3	17.4	16.6	0.73	15.6	13.1	2.54
Carmelo Anthony	55	56	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.29	-4	1	-5	17.2	16.9	0.22	15.3	13.5	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.46,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.42,0.33,0.29,0.3,0.32,0.29,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.27,0.29,0.2,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.13,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.07,0.12,0.21,0.12,0.07,0.15,0.37,0.23,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 94, TOR 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.37,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.29,0.22,0.23,0.27,0.34,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.23,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.18,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.08,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.21,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.04,0.28,0	93.0%
SEA 104, MIL 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.22,0.29,0.25,0.2,0.27,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.26,0.19,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.24,0.28,0	92.0%
DEN 101, IND 99	0.5,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.28,0.31,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.14,0.16,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.27,0.21,0.09,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.23,0.42,0	91.4%