NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	105		Excitement	11.1 [35]		MVP	Thon Maker (MIL): +48.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	19.9 [127]		LVP	Ish Smith (DET): -35.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tobias Harris	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.42	0.17	0.26	0.01	14	79%	0.43	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.09	0.01	10	73%	0.20	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,0.1,0.08	-0.02	0.10	-0.01	19	44%	0.09	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.03	0.00	3	67%	0.09	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.00	9	39%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Andre Drummond	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	6	44%	0.02	2	-0.11	4	25%	-0.12
Stanley Johnson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	0.00	3	0%	-0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.35	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.29,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.03	-0.34	-0.01	13	45%	-0.32	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Ish Smith	-0.36	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.09,-0.3,-0.3,-0.36	-0.07	-0.27	0.02	20	40%	-0.21	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Thon Maker	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.31,0.48,0.48	0.48	0.19	0.30	0.01	12	85%	0.51	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.06	0.09	0.00	4	78%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Khris Middleton	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.02	0.01	16	71%	0.20	3	-0.11	3	100%	0.03
Rashad Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,0.09,-0.02,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.01	0.00	0.01	16	53%	0.11	4	-0.11	21	67%	-0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.04	-0.01	6	21%	-0.05	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.11	0.00	8	37%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	6	14%	-0.20	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	24.1	2.4	26.6	16.4	26.4	2.4	30.6	2.5	18.0	149.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +12.5%

MIL +27.2%

DET -1.4%

MIL +7.3%

MIL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIL	NBA	DET	MIL	NBA
this game	15.6	16.1	14.8	105.0	106.9	107.7
season	15.0	14.9		105.0	107.4
opponent	15.3	15.1		107.8	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DET	17.1	14.1	13.6	19.8	12.1	15.6
MIL	15.6	18.6	15.2	16.2	13.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Beno Udrih	39	38	0.66	-1.16	1.81	0.13	18	-21	39	14.8	16.0	-1.15	18.0	15.0	3.02
Stanley Johnson	33	32	0.64	-1.14	1.79	0.29	12	-15	27	15.1	15.8	-0.69	19.4	14.6	4.86
Tobias Harris	55	54	0.29	-0.79	1.08	-0.15	15	-18	33	15.5	15.6	-0.05	17.3	14.7	2.55
Jon Leuer	56	57	0.08	-0.58	0.66	0.29	-7	4	-11	16.9	13.8	3.17	16.7	15.3	1.41
Andre Drummond	60	59	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.04	-7	4	-11	16.1	14.7	1.38	15.9	16.3	-0.34
Aron Baynes	40	42	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.38	4	-7	11	14.7	16.1	-1.38	16.3	15.9	0.34
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	75	77	-0.82	0.32	-1.13	-0.52	-10	7	-17	15.1	16.9	-1.77	14.8	20.4	-5.62
Marcus Morris	70	71	-1.08	0.58	-1.66	-0.61	-16	13	-29	15.7	15.2	0.45	15.0	18.6	-3.62
Ish Smith	61	63	-1.28	0.78	-2.05	-0.66	-21	18	-39	16.0	14.8	1.15	15.0	18.0	-3.02

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thon Maker	49	47	1.17	-0.67	1.85	0.41	26	-23	49	14.1	17.9	-3.78	17.6	13.8	3.82
Matthew Dellavedova	67	66	1.10	-0.60	1.70	0.49	21	-18	39	15.1	18.0	-2.84	16.3	14.0	2.30
Tony Snell	69	68	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.31	17	-14	31	14.8	18.9	-4.17	16.1	14.3	1.87
Khris Middleton	82	82	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.40	13	-10	23	15.3	19.4	-4.04	15.6	15.3	0.33
Giannis Antetokounmpo	86	84	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.38	10	-7	17	15.6	19.1	-3.50	16.0	13.1	2.89
Spencer Hawes	12	12	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	4	-5	17.5	15.9	1.60	12.7	15.9	-3.28
Mirza Teletovic	17	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.13	-7	10	-17	18.1	15.7	2.37	15.3	15.6	-0.31
Michael Beasley	12	13	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.14	-7	10	-17	19.9	15.6	4.34	13.2	15.9	-2.67
Rashad Vaughn	33	32	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	0.05	-16	19	-35	17.5	15.4	2.16	13.1	16.7	-3.66
Jason Terry	38	38	-0.52	1.02	-1.54	0.04	-19	22	-41	19.6	14.0	5.68	15.0	15.9	-0.93
Greg Monroe	40	41	-0.71	1.21	-1.91	-0.06	-22	25	-47	18.0	14.8	3.25	14.1	16.6	-2.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.79,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.75,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.73,0.69,0.69,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.14,0.19,0.05,0.15,0.29,0.16,0.28,0.54,0.69,0.55,0.57,0.59,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 93, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.81,0.76,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.65,0.65,0.66,0.56,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.1,0.14,0.37,0.15,0.42,0	89.0%
LAC 128, HOU 118	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.79,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.77,0.73,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.55,0.66,0.63,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.23,0.08,0.12,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.06,0,0	87.7%
HOU 89, LAC 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.81,0.85,0.8,0.81,0.78,0.77,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.82,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.6,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.21,0.32,0.36,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.15,0.23,0.08,1	87.4%