NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	97		Excitement	10.2 [57]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +87.1%
Detroit Pistons	96		Comeback	21.4 [78]		LVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): -49.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.87	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.87	0.04	0.83	0.00	13	57%	0.90	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.06
Luke Babbitt	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.14	-0.08	0.02	16	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	13	69%	0.02
Willie Reed	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Okaro White	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.09	0.03	-0.11	0.02	8	67%	0.05	2	-0.14	2	50%	-0.01
Wayne Ellington	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	0.00	4	22%	-0.05	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.02
James Johnson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.13,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.12	0.00	-0.13	-0.00	11	57%	0.05	4	-0.17	6	83%	0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.05	-0.08	0.01	11	37%	-0.12	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Johnson	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.17,-0.17	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	8	12%	-0.15	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.43	0.43	0.08	0.35	0.00	22	50%	0.43	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02
Ish Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	13	59%	0.14	2	-0.05	6	83%	-0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.06	-0.01	5	40%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.07	0.01	7	53%	0.10	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	6	43%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	0.00	10	35%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.07	-0.12	0.00	14	63%	-0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.28,-0.28,-0.49	-0.49	-0.09	-0.40	0.00	5	50%	-0.01	5	-0.48	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.3	29.4	17.5	26.4	1.8	39.4	140.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +20.7%

MIA +0.7%

DET -0.4%

MIA +18.0%

MIA +11.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.4	14.9	14.8	106.6	103.2	107.7
season	15.4	15.0		106.7	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.5		106.4	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.0	15.2	16.9	17.7	16.4
DET	16.8	15.5	14.4	13.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	49	50	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.53	3	-2	5	16.8	16.0	0.71	13.6	16.4	-2.84
Hassan Whiteside	56	59	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	-4	9	16.5	16.3	0.23	15.0	14.6	0.39
Goran Dragic	63	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	1	-1	16.3	16.6	-0.26	15.3	13.7	1.61
Rodney McGruder	61	63	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.47	-2	3	-5	16.7	16.0	0.69	15.4	13.9	1.47
James Johnson	63	64	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	6	-11	16.7	15.9	0.77	14.1	16.7	-2.61
Luke Babbitt	25	25	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-7	15	16.0	16.6	-0.54	17.3	14.0	3.32
Wayne Ellington	35	35	0.06	0.44	-0.37	0.06	0	1	-1	15.9	16.7	-0.79	13.5	15.8	-2.30
Okaro White	9	9	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	1	-1	16.3	16.4	-0.11	12.1	15.2	-3.08
Josh Richardson	61	61	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	-0.05	1	0	1	16.3	16.8	-0.50	16.0	12.7	3.31
Willie Reed	33	32	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.10	-5	6	-11	16.2	16.6	-0.34	14.7	15.0	-0.26

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aron Baynes	27	27	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.01	3	-4	7	14.7	15.0	-0.27	15.5	16.8	-1.29
Beno Udrih	32	32	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.01	-4	3	-7	14.6	15.0	-0.41	15.5	16.9	-1.43
Tobias Harris	58	58	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.47	11	-12	23	14.0	16.3	-2.28	16.9	15.6	1.24
Stanley Johnson	65	61	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.42	7	-8	15	14.0	17.0	-2.96	16.5	16.3	0.19
Jon Leuer	33	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.00	-11	10	-21	16.5	14.0	2.47	15.5	16.9	-1.38
Marcus Morris	52	56	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.09	-8	7	-15	15.5	14.2	1.29	16.0	17.1	-1.16
Ish Smith	61	59	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-4	7	15.0	14.6	0.41	16.9	15.5	1.43
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.44	-2	1	-3	15.3	13.7	1.53	16.8	15.5	1.32
Andre Drummond	66	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.46	-4	3	-7	15.0	14.7	0.27	16.8	15.5	1.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.5,0.49,0.4,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.37,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.37,0.42,0.42,0.31,0.22,0.27,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.62,0.54,0.43,0.28,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHA 96, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.42,0.38,0.36,0.4,0.33,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.43,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.24,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.19,0.14,0.2,0.19,0.31,0.4,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.32,0.16,0	92.5%
CLE 82, VAN 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.32,0.25,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.16,0.15,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.27,0.31,0.41,0.39,0.55,0.45,0.33,0.27,0	91.8%
POR 106, CHI 101	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.19,0.21,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.19,0.21,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.29,0.43,0.15,0	91.7%