NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	130		Excitement	9.4 [103]		MVP	Bradley Beal (WAS): +72.8%
Sacramento Kings	122		Comeback	25.0 [120]		LVP	Buddy Hield (SAC): -20.6%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bradley Beal	0.73	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.34,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.73,0.73,0.73	0.22	0.53	0.02	24	69%	0.78	2	-0.05	7	100%	0.02
Jason Smith	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	4	112%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter Jr.	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.14	-0.05	0.03	11	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Markieff Morris	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.06	0.03	9	50%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
John Wall	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.19,-0.12,-0.12,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.00	0.05	0.00	25	48%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ian Mahinmi	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.09	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.06
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bojan Bogdanovic	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	16	47%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.14,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.48	0.48	0.06	0.43	-0.00	12	62%	0.55	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.06
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	5	100%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05	0.05	-0.01	0.02	-0.04	12	48%	0.05	1	-0.00	5	80%	0.03
Skal Labissiere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	67%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.12	-0.08	-0.00	10	72%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.04
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	0.00
Garrett Temple	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	57%	0.05	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	11	36%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Buddy Hield	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.02,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21	-0.21	0.04	-0.21	0.03	16	56%	-0.12	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	20.9	1.7	31.3	14.8	26.2	2.5	34.2	1.8	17.9	151.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +46.8%

SAC -16.4%

WAS +34.8%

SAC -5.3%

SAC -9.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	SAC	NBA	WAS	SAC	NBA
this game	13.3	15.8	14.8	117.1	113.0	107.7
season	14.4	15.4		109.9	106.0
opponent	14.6	14.9		110.0	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
WAS	12.7	12.4	13.3	14.7	13.6	13.3
SAC	16.2	14.3	18.0	14.7	16.4	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	82	81	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.25	15	-7	22	13.6	12.4	1.21	16.4	14.1	2.31
Bradley Beal	86	85	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.22	16	-8	24	13.6	12.2	1.38	16.3	14.0	2.29
Bojan Bogdanovic	66	66	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.35	7	1	6	13.4	13.1	0.31	14.4	18.0	-3.67
Ian Mahinmi	49	47	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.37	5	3	2	13.6	13.0	0.65	14.1	17.1	-3.08
Jason Smith	50	49	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.03	11	-3	14	13.5	13.1	0.38	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Otto Porter Jr.	81	78	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.31	-2	10	-12	13.2	13.4	-0.13	16.3	14.6	1.62
Markieff Morris	53	51	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	14	-20	13.2	13.4	-0.19	16.7	15.0	1.74
Marcin Gortat	44	43	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	-0.13	1	7	-6	12.8	13.6	-0.82	17.9	14.4	3.45
Brandon Jennings	32	29	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	-0.02	-5	13	-18	12.5	13.6	-1.13	13.8	16.6	-2.80
Kelly Oubre Jr.	12	11	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	-0.14	-2	10	-12	10.5	13.6	-3.11	14.4	16.0	-1.61

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben McLemore	38	40	0.27	-0.77	1.04	0.18	3	-11	14	13.3	17.2	-3.88	12.1	13.9	-1.83
Kosta Koufos	42	42	0.12	-0.62	0.73	0.09	1	-9	10	17.8	14.5	3.28	12.5	13.7	-1.16
Garrett Temple	54	57	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.11	0	-8	8	14.1	17.5	-3.35	13.5	13.0	0.56
Skal Labissiere	31	32	0.10	-0.60	0.70	0.04	2	-10	12	14.0	16.5	-2.49	13.0	13.4	-0.38
Ty Lawson	44	45	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	-6	4	14.4	16.8	-2.36	12.7	13.7	-0.94
Willie Cauley-Stein	74	77	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.05	-3	-5	2	16.0	15.5	0.49	13.4	13.1	0.30
Anthony Tolliver	36	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	-7	6	15.3	16.0	-0.71	13.7	13.1	0.69
Buddy Hield	71	74	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	-1	-6	16.8	13.9	2.95	13.5	12.8	0.69
Darren Collison	64	66	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.42	-6	-2	-4	16.8	14.4	2.36	13.7	12.7	0.94
Arron Afflalo	66	67	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.30	-11	3	-14	17.0	13.9	3.07	13.6	12.7	0.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.81,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.9,0.84,0.67,0.54,0.45,0.43,0.47,0.54,0.61,0.46,0.25,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 102, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.77,0.78,0.81,0.71,0.77,0.85,0.92,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.88,0.86,0.81,0.73,0.62,0.46,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.15,0	91.9%
CLE 106, GSW 104	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.61,0.68,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.93,0.86,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.74,0.65,0.66,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.86,0.73,0.79,0.71,0.6,0.47,0.36,0.43,0.58,0.54,0.24,0.15,0.1,0.04,0	89.2%
DEN 113, LAC 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.85,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.87,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.85,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.75,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.58,0.54,0.47,0.36,0.16,0.02,0	89.1%