NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	117		Excitement	4.0 [1001]		MVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): +13.5%
Houston Rockets	109		Comeback	1.0 [285]		LVP	James Johnson (MIA): -6.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.13	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.14	0.02	0.02	13	68%	0.14	1	-0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Luke Babbitt	0.09	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	-0.00	4	112%	0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.01	8	69%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.10	-0.00	0.04	17	61%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Tyler Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	11	64%	0.07	2	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Wayne Ellington	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.07	0.00	0.05	14	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.01
Willie Reed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
James Johnson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.13	-0.00	-0.07	10	30%	-0.01	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.17	-0.00	0.11	21	66%	0.12	4	-0.07	16	87%	0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	-0.03	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	47%	0.01	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.02
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.02	5	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	6	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.10	16	53%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	15	39%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	7	36%	-0.03	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	2.0	25.4	14.8	25.3	1.8	32.3	128.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +48.1%

HOU -8.3%

MIA +13.0%

HOU -1.0%

HOU -1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	HOU	NBA	MIA	HOU	NBA
this game	16.7	14.1	14.8	124.5	117.2	107.7
season	15.4	13.7		106.7	113.2
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.1	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.4	20.6	16.0	15.4	16.7
HOU	12.9	14.3	14.6	14.6	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dion Waiters	73	71	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.19	11	-3	14	16.1	18.9	-2.82	14.2	13.6	0.57
Hassan Whiteside	58	58	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.22	9	-1	10	17.7	15.1	2.69	14.6	13.3	1.31
Rodney McGruder	55	55	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-5	18	16.0	17.7	-1.76	14.1	14.1	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	63	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	4	0	16.8	16.6	0.15	14.6	13.0	1.56
Luke Babbitt	35	35	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.01	9	-1	10	16.7	16.7	0.00	14.1	14.1	-0.03
James Johnson	59	58	0.22	0.28	-0.05	0.25	-1	9	-10	16.7	16.7	-0.00	14.1	14.1	0.03
Wayne Ellington	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	5	-2	18.5	16.0	2.55	14.1	14.1	-0.01
Goran Dragic	64	64	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.28	-5	13	-18	17.0	16.2	0.80	13.5	15.4	-2.00
Willie Reed	35	34	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.10	-3	11	-14	15.5	17.4	-1.95	13.2	14.6	-1.42

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Clint Capela	30	32	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.04	2	-10	12	13.1	14.5	-1.39	16.9	16.6	0.25
Montrezl Harrell	6	6	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.05	2	-10	12	12.3	14.2	-1.86	14.2	16.9	-2.72
Patrick Beverley	24	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	0.02	-2	-6	4	12.9	14.5	-1.56	20.0	15.6	4.35
Sam Dekker	38	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.22	6	-14	20	14.6	13.7	0.90	17.4	16.2	1.24
Corey Brewer	50	52	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.32	6	-14	20	14.1	14.1	-0.03	17.5	15.8	1.68
Eric Gordon	62	62	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	2	-12	14.1	14.0	0.16	16.6	17.0	-0.44
Ryan Anderson	62	62	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.16	-10	2	-12	14.0	14.3	-0.27	16.2	17.8	-1.62
Nene	38	37	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	0.02	-17	9	-26	14.7	13.7	1.03	17.8	16.0	1.81
Trevor Ariza	73	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.16	-11	3	-14	14.4	12.7	1.69	15.8	19.5	-3.70
James Harden	82	84	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	-2	-4	14.1	14.1	-0.02	15.9	23.5	-7.60

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 119, POR 101	0.5,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.32,0.29,0.22,0.26,0.17,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.18,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
DET 103, LAC 73	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.4,0.35,0.39,0.3,0.25,0.16,0.21,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.6%
ATL 109, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.5%