NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	103		Excitement	3.4 [1127]		MVP	Danny Green (SAS): +15.1%
Detroit Pistons	92		Comeback	1.0 [1057]		LVP	Stanley Johnson (DET): -7.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.00	5	120%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0.14	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.11	0.01	-0.01	22	60%	0.17	3	-0.04	9	78%	-0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	10	81%	0.09	3	-0.02	1	100%	-0.00
David Lee	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	-0.00	-0.02	10	52%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	4	62%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bryn Forbes	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonathon Simmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patty Mills	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.04	0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.04	18	47%	0.03	5	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	9	75%	0.12	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	10	45%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	13	46%	0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	0.08	12	62%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	12	42%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	0.02	9	50%	-0.02	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	17	31%	-0.06	0	0.00	5	40%	-0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.01	5	30%	-0.05	3	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	2.4	24.6	17.7	27.6	2.4	29.5	125.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +44.1%

SAS +4.7%

SAS +6.6%

DET -8.5%

SAS +3.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	16.0	13.9	14.8	107.3	94.8	107.7
season	15.4	15.0		110.1	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.8		106.4	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.2	13.6	15.4	20.1	16.0
DET	14.2	16.4	12.8	12.1	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	65	66	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.04	18	-7	25	16.6	14.7	1.81	13.6	14.6	-1.02
Dewayne Dedmon	62	62	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.07	11	0	11	16.2	15.5	0.73	14.1	13.5	0.67
Danny Green	59	59	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.15	8	3	5	16.2	15.6	0.61	14.1	13.6	0.51
David Lee	38	40	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.01	12	-1	13	16.3	15.8	0.53	14.6	13.4	1.21
Tony Parker	63	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.09	9	2	7	16.2	15.6	0.55	14.0	13.7	0.27
LaMarcus Aldridge	66	66	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	7	-3	15.7	16.7	-1.02	14.0	13.7	0.26
Patty Mills	32	33	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.06	3	8	-5	15.3	16.3	-0.98	14.4	13.6	0.72
Manu Ginobili	36	36	0.12	0.38	-0.27	-0.00	4	7	-3	15.3	16.3	-1.02	14.2	13.7	0.45
Davis Bertans	24	24	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.20	-6	17	-23	15.4	16.2	-0.74	12.7	14.3	-1.51
Joel Anthony	2	2	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	10	-9	19.0	15.9	3.10	3.0	14.1	-11.12
Jonathon Simmons	31	31	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.22	-7	18	-25	14.7	16.6	-1.81	14.6	13.6	1.02
Kyle Anderson	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	25.0	15.9	9.13	3.0	14.1	-11.12
Bryn Forbes	1	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	12	-13	25.0	15.9	9.13	3.0	14.1	-11.12

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ish Smith	38	38	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.12	2	-13	15	14.5	13.5	0.97	15.1	16.5	-1.39
Aron Baynes	20	19	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-9	7	14.5	13.7	0.84	12.6	16.8	-4.16
Stanley Johnson	28	28	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-12	13	16.4	12.9	3.52	14.9	16.4	-1.52
Jon Leuer	69	69	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.22	1	-12	13	14.1	13.3	0.79	16.6	14.4	2.12
Tobias Harris	67	65	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	13.9	14.0	-0.12	16.4	15.1	1.29
Andre Drummond	72	72	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.17	-8	-3	-5	13.8	14.0	-0.15	16.7	13.8	2.85
Marcus Morris	59	59	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	0.03	-15	4	-19	13.6	14.3	-0.75	15.4	16.9	-1.55
Reggie Jackson	59	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.06	-13	2	-15	13.5	14.5	-0.97	16.5	15.1	1.39
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	73	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.06	-14	3	-17	12.8	17.1	-4.25	16.1	15.6	0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.36,0.33,0.35,0.3,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.23,0.1,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 99, DET 83	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
NOP 131, HOU 112	0.5,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.4,0.3,0.34,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.16,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%
MIA 103, HOU 85	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.34,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.25,0.17,0.16,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.7%