NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	107		Excitement	6.8 [488]		MVP	JaMychal Green (MEM): +29.9%
Minnesota Timberwolves	99		Comeback	5.7 [108]		LVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): -21.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JaMychal Green	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.29,0.3,0.3,0.3	0.25	0.08	0.03	11	85%	0.30	1	-0.00	12	100%	0.06
James Ennis III	0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.10	-0.01	5	108%	0.26	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Vince Carter	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.10	0.02	7	69%	0.16	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Troy Daniels	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	-0.00	8	61%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Toney Douglas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.02	4	58%	0.03	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Mike Conley	-0.02	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02	-0.04	0.04	0.02	16	45%	0.03	3	-0.04	12	83%	-0.01
Andrew Harrison	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.03	0.00	6	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.13	-0.09	-0.00	15	26%	-0.18	1	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyus Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.01	0.10	-0.00	6	71%	0.18	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00
Karl-Anthony Towns	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.15	0.04	0.09	15	67%	0.15	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.02
Shabazz Muhammad	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	11	48%	0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Cole Aldrich	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nemanja Bjelica	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.08	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	42%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Gorgui Dieng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	17%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ricky Rubio	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.05	0.01	15	44%	-0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Andrew Wiggins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12	-0.12	-0.01	-0.07	0.04	22	45%	-0.09	1	-0.03	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.4	33.0	14.8	26.5	2.4	43.4	145.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +28.4%

MEM +8.5%

MEM +8.3%

MEM +9.3%

MIN -4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIN	NBA	MEM	MIN	NBA
this game	15.5	16.5	14.8	117.6	111.2	107.7
season	16.1	15.3		106.4	109.3
opponent	14.7	14.9		110.2	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	17.6	14.7	15.7	14.2	15.5
MIN	14.5	18.2	19.5	14.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Toney Douglas	43	40	0.90	-0.40	1.30	0.20	24	-16	40	14.7	16.2	-1.49	16.2	16.8	-0.51
Mike Conley	73	70	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.09	16	-8	24	14.6	19.0	-4.38	16.5	16.6	-0.06
Vince Carter	62	60	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.20	10	-2	12	14.9	16.8	-1.87	15.4	18.8	-3.31
James Ennis III	67	68	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.31	5	3	2	15.0	16.8	-1.83	17.1	14.8	2.31
JaMychal Green	63	61	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.18	3	5	-2	14.3	18.1	-3.84	15.4	18.9	-3.45
Zach Randolph	53	53	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	4	0	17.1	13.2	3.86	18.0	14.4	3.55
Brandan Wright	35	32	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.02	-2	10	-12	17.4	14.3	3.11	17.3	16.1	1.18
Troy Daniels	26	28	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	0.01	-3	11	-14	16.7	15.0	1.64	17.0	16.3	0.64
Andrew Harrison	33	33	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.16	-17	25	-42	17.2	14.5	2.76	16.3	16.6	-0.31

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nemanja Bjelica	25	24	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.17	-1	-7	6	16.6	16.5	0.10	16.7	15.1	1.61
Gorgui Dieng	60	62	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.19	9	-17	26	17.8	13.9	3.85	16.4	13.4	2.99
Cole Aldrich	7	7	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	-2	-4	18.4	16.4	2.06	11.7	15.8	-4.08
Tyus Jones	47	48	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.17	1	-9	10	15.7	17.4	-1.66	14.6	16.5	-1.91
Shabazz Muhammad	50	51	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-11	14	15.2	18.2	-2.99	15.1	15.9	-0.79
Brandon Rush	44	46	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	9	-26	18.1	15.0	3.09	15.4	15.6	-0.14
Andrew Wiggins	69	72	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.42	-4	-4	0	16.0	18.3	-2.29	15.6	15.0	0.61
Karl-Anthony Towns	72	73	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.37	-11	3	-14	16.2	17.7	-1.46	15.5	15.6	-0.16
Ricky Rubio	71	72	-0.73	0.23	-0.95	-0.31	-14	6	-20	16.5	16.6	-0.10	15.4	15.7	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.79,0.77,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.71,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.26,0.13,0.21,0.19,0.21,0.42,0.48,0.52,0.33,0.47,0.45,0.29,0.39,0.1,0.05,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 95, MIL 86	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.75,0.71,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.25,0.37,0.3,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.63,0.47,0.53,0.33,0.1,0.01,0,0,0	91.0%
CHI 108, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.77,0.72,0.72,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.31,0.26,0.24,0.35,0.29,0.19,0.37,0.4,0.32,0.3,0.34,0.47,0.33,0.37,0.31,0.29,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.17,0.02,0	90.0%
NYK 99, WAS 96	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.7,0.59,0.5,0.49,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.39,0.29,0.25,0.19,0.3,0.44,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.57,0.38,0.28,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.1,0.07,0.24,0.27,0	89.8%