NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	94		Excitement	7.2 [422]		MVP	CJ Watson (ORL): +22.6%
Orlando Magic	102		Comeback	1.6 [426]		LVP	Aaron Gordon (ORL): -17.7%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pascal Siakam	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Norman Powell	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03	0.08	-0.02	0.04	12	69%	0.09	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Fred VanVleet	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.05,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	12	56%	0.09	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.03
Lucas Nogueira	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Patrick Patterson	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03	0.05	-0.04	0.03	10	60%	0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	-0.00	20	39%	-0.01	2	-0.09	6	100%	0.05
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	0.00	-0.11	0.02	17	45%	-0.13	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	-0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.11	-0.04	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.16	0.08	0.02	6	95%	0.23	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	-0.01	0.03	12	77%	0.10	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.08,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.06	0.03	12	59%	0.11	2	-0.03	10	80%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	12	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.01
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.07	-0.00	16	53%	0.01	4	-0.11	2	0%	-0.07
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.13	-0.05	-0.00	7	6%	-0.15	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.4	2.6	25.5	15.4	26.3	2.5	41.5	143.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +39.9%

TOR -11.8%

TOR -0.4%

ORL +18.3%

ORL +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.3	14.8	100.0	108.5	107.7
season	15.2	14.6		110.0	103.0
opponent	14.9	14.9		109.8	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.4	16.9	15.7	13.0	15.4
ORL	15.5	15.2	16.3	14.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jared Sullinger	17	17	0.12	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-15	22	17.2	15.0	2.27	14.3	15.5	-1.19
Terrence Ross	55	55	0.11	-0.61	0.73	-0.09	7	-15	22	15.4	15.4	-0.02	14.9	15.8	-0.99
Patrick Patterson	12	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-7	6	18.4	14.9	3.49	17.1	15.0	2.07
Fred VanVleet	44	45	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.22	6	-14	20	15.5	15.2	0.33	14.6	15.9	-1.36
DeMarre Carroll	34	34	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.04	-6	-2	-4	15.9	15.0	0.89	16.7	14.4	2.30
Pascal Siakam	19	19	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	0.06	-11	3	-14	14.4	15.6	-1.26	13.5	15.7	-2.25
Lucas Nogueira	50	50	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.25	-4	-4	0	14.4	16.5	-2.08	15.6	14.9	0.76
Kyle Lowry	85	83	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.13	-8	0	-8	15.1	18.3	-3.27	15.2	16.0	-0.83
Cory Joseph	15	15	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.15	-9	1	-10	13.1	15.8	-2.66	14.1	15.5	-1.43
Jonas Valanciunas	65	67	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.23	-9	1	-10	16.0	13.9	2.13	15.7	14.2	1.46
Norman Powell	74	74	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.28	-12	4	-16	15.2	15.8	-0.61	15.5	14.5	0.97

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	69	69	0.82	-0.32	1.14	0.23	20	-12	32	15.1	15.8	-0.78	15.5	15.1	0.40
Elfrid Payton	63	63	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.30	14	-6	20	15.1	15.7	-0.61	15.5	15.0	0.51
Evan Fournier	69	71	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.18	10	-2	12	15.3	15.0	0.31	15.5	14.9	0.67
Nikola Vucevic	57	58	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.14	9	-1	10	15.8	14.5	1.33	15.4	15.3	0.11
Aaron Gordon	55	53	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.16	7	1	6	15.6	14.8	0.72	15.7	15.0	0.70
CJ Watson	65	64	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.27	-4	12	-16	15.0	15.8	-0.81	14.9	16.3	-1.36
Bismack Biyombo	35	34	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.13	-1	9	-10	14.7	15.6	-0.97	16.0	15.0	1.03
D.J. Augustin	31	31	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.04	-6	14	-20	15.7	15.1	0.61	15.0	15.5	-0.51
Jeff Green	26	27	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.05	-9	17	-26	15.3	15.3	0.00	14.2	15.9	-1.67

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.58,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.78,0.76,0.85,0.8,0.75,0.78,0.66,0.82,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.91,0.78,0.85,0.79,0.94,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 101, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	93.7%
ORL 91, NOH 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.46,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.91,0.83,0.75,0.78,0.95,1,1	93.6%
HOU 81, SAS 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.42,0.49,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.72,0.83,0.72,0.82,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.87,0.77,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.86,0.79,0.9,0.98,1	93.2%