NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	109		Excitement	8.0 [272]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +32.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	112		Comeback	1.6 [632]		LVP	Tony Allen (MEM): -25.8%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.09	0.10	0.00	11	71%	0.24	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Andrew Harrison	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.08	0.06	-0.00	4	82%	0.14	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.00
Marc Gasol	0.14	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.17	-0.01	0.03	21	67%	0.25	2	-0.11	6	100%	0.03
Vince Carter	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.05	0.08	-0.02	0.00	8	65%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
JaMychal Green	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	-0.01	0.01	3	77%	0.08	1	-0.03	7	86%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	6	57%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Ennis III	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	12%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Mike Conley	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.04,0.04,0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	16	46%	0.12	4	-0.19	5	80%	0.04
Tony Allen	-0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.26	-0.13	-0.13	0.00	5	17%	-0.15	3	-0.10	2	0%	-0.07

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.05,0.01,0.18,0.3,0.43,0.5,0.4,0.32	0.32	0.11	0.19	-0.02	21	62%	0.54	4	-0.22	11	91%	0.07
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.24	0.09	0.00	12	92%	0.32	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.04	-0.01	9	60%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.03
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	30%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	9	44%	0.08	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Pat Connaughton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	11	69%	0.19	5	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.02	-0.04	0.02	11	52%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	35.4	14.7	24.6	2.6	33.5	135.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +50.3%

POR +2.6%

MEM -2.0%

MEM -1.5%

POR +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	POR	NBA	MEM	POR	NBA
this game	15.8	15.2	14.8	117.2	120.4	107.7
season	16.1	14.9		106.4	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		109.8	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	18.0	14.2	15.7	15.3	15.8
POR	14.0	14.6	16.3	16.0	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Ennis III	29	29	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.07	3	-6	9	15.4	15.9	-0.46	15.6	15.0	0.50
Mike Conley	71	69	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.43	12	-15	27	15.5	16.6	-1.14	15.0	15.9	-0.96
Chandler Parsons	38	40	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.05	-7	4	-11	17.1	14.8	2.31	15.4	15.0	0.39
JaMychal Green	41	42	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.08	-11	8	-19	17.3	14.6	2.73	15.4	15.1	0.32
Andrew Harrison	30	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.08	-11	8	-19	16.1	15.6	0.55	15.3	15.2	0.08
Zach Randolph	61	60	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.46	3	-6	9	14.8	17.6	-2.74	15.3	15.1	0.18
Vince Carter	51	48	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.53	3	-6	9	15.1	16.6	-1.56	14.6	15.9	-1.33
Tony Allen	68	69	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.41	-5	2	-7	15.7	16.0	-0.38	15.4	14.7	0.67
Marc Gasol	76	77	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.51	-2	-1	-1	15.8	15.6	0.21	15.3	14.9	0.32

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Turner	58	57	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.43	11	-8	19	15.8	14.1	1.70	16.5	14.6	1.97
Mason Plumlee	65	67	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.37	8	-5	13	14.9	16.0	-1.14	16.0	15.0	1.01
Damian Lillard	77	76	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.50	0	3	-3	15.1	15.5	-0.36	15.4	17.5	-2.09
Al-Farouq Aminu	63	64	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	1	1	15.1	15.4	-0.24	15.2	17.1	-1.90
Allen Crabbe	53	53	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.21	6	-3	9	15.9	14.3	1.63	16.4	14.9	1.43
CJ McCollum	63	64	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.20	-5	8	-13	14.6	16.6	-2.01	15.5	16.4	-0.95
Noah Vonleh	30	29	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	2	-1	15.4	15.1	0.24	17.1	15.2	1.90
Meyers Leonard	28	26	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	8	-13	16.0	14.9	1.14	15.0	16.0	-1.01
Pat Connaughton	28	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	-0.10	-3	6	-9	14.2	15.6	-1.47	14.8	16.2	-1.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.73,0.71,0.73,0.84,0.88,0.8,0.78,0.77,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.69,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.65,0.55,0.74,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.41,0.53,0.72,0.69,0.78,0.84,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 97, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.56,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.62,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.77,0.7,0.75,0.66,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.67,0.71,0.54,0.62,0.67,0.62,0.47,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.85,0.84,1	92.3%
GSW 91, MEM 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1	92.0%
CHI 92, IND 97	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.73,0.72,0.74,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.69,0.69,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.75,0.8,0.78,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.71,0.68,0.53,0.59,0.72,0.62,0.85,0.84,0.83,1	91.9%