NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	7.4 [324]		MVP	Gordan Giricek (MEM): +14.8%
Memphis Grizzlies	104		Comeback	1.4 [703]		LVP	Gilbert Arenas (GSW): -30.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Mills	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.01	0.10	-0.03	12	48%	0.13	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	5	42%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	5	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.01	-0.07	0.02	5	77%	0.04	2	-0.11	3	67%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.02	-0.07	0.02	12	46%	-0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Antawn Jamison	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.09	-0.02	21	44%	-0.07	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Jason Richardson	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	7	33%	-0.09	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Gilbert Arenas	-0.30	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.19,-0.19,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.19	-0.14	-0.02	20	36%	-0.18	4	-0.13	7	100%	0.08

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gordan Giricek	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	11	82%	0.22	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.1,-0.14,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.06	0.13	-0.02	14	42%	0.15	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.03
Lorenzen Wright	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.05	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.01
Stromile Swift	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	67%	0.09	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Mike Batiste	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.01	11	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Earl Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	13	51%	-0.00	3	-0.16	9	89%	0.03
Jason Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.07	-0.08	0.03	9	33%	-0.15	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	1.8	25.0	15.6	27.5	2.3	30.6	126.1
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +74.8%

GSW -21.3%

MEM +7.5%

GSW -13.5%

MEM +2.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MEM	NBA	GSW	MEM	NBA
this game	15.0	14.8	15.5	94.8	107.2	101.6
season	14.6	15.3		105.3	101.8
opponent	15.2	15.1		105.1	106.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.1	17.9	13.2	14.4	15.0
MEM	12.6	17.2	14.5	15.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	23	26	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.02	4	-17	21	13.1	15.6	-2.46	14.0	15.1	-1.10
Earl Boykins	36	35	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-15	17	15.6	14.6	1.02	15.4	14.5	0.91
Mike Dunleavy	40	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-12	11	15.5	14.6	0.90	15.4	14.5	0.94
Adonal Foyle	36	35	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-8	3	16.1	14.3	1.82	14.3	15.1	-0.83
Troy Murphy	78	78	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.13	-8	-5	-3	14.6	16.7	-2.12	14.8	15.2	-0.39
Gilbert Arenas	87	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.10	-12	-1	-11	15.1	14.2	0.86	15.0	13.4	1.61
Chris Mills	43	42	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.06	-15	2	-17	15.2	14.8	0.34	14.1	15.4	-1.36
Erick Dampier	55	57	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.15	-13	0	-13	14.5	15.7	-1.23	15.0	14.6	0.38
Antawn Jamison	82	85	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.15	-17	4	-21	15.0	14.8	0.25	15.0	13.8	1.15

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	52	51	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.15	19	-6	25	13.9	16.0	-2.07	15.7	14.2	1.51
Pau Gasol	72	73	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.12	17	-4	21	14.7	15.3	-0.59	15.1	14.6	0.57
Lorenzen Wright	59	58	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.09	11	2	9	14.5	15.3	-0.77	14.4	15.9	-1.52
Wesley Person	60	60	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.12	5	8	-3	15.2	14.3	0.93	14.3	16.1	-1.78
Earl Watson	37	35	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.05	7	6	1	14.0	15.3	-1.32	15.4	14.8	0.58
Jason Williams	60	61	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.07	6	7	-1	15.3	14.0	1.32	14.8	15.4	-0.58
Gordan Giricek	37	36	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	5	3	14.3	15.2	-0.93	16.1	14.3	1.78
Stromile Swift	38	38	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.03	2	11	-9	15.3	14.5	0.77	15.9	14.4	1.52
Mike Batiste	25	23	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.01	-4	17	-21	15.3	14.7	0.59	14.6	15.1	-0.57
Drew Gooden	45	45	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	19	-25	16.0	13.9	2.07	14.2	15.7	-1.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.66,0.65,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.7,0.66,0.63,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.65,0.68,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.66,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.75,0.78,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 98, LAL 102	0.5,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.74,0.76,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.78,0.73,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.7,0.73,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.63,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.65,0.73,0.81,0.79,0.9,0.98,1	92.5%
NYK 96, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.85,0.84,0.84,1	92.4%
POR 96, LAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.66,0.73,0.75,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.63,0.69,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.61,0.75,0.79,0.91,0.96,1	92.3%