NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	102		Excitement	8.6 [196]		MVP	Dion Waiters (MIA): +73.7%
Miami Heat	105		Comeback	2.6 [136]		LVP	Hassan Whiteside (MIA): -12.8%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.23	0.06	0.18	0.02	23	56%	0.28	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
JaVale McGee	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	6	77%	0.10	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Patrick McCaw	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.00	2	75%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	18	55%	0.13	2	-0.07	4	75%	0.00
Ian Clark	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.00	4	50%	0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	6	37%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03
Stephen Curry	-0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	19	49%	0.06	4	-0.15	5	80%	-0.01
Draymond Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.06	8	35%	-0.01	2	-0.08	4	25%	-0.08

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.23,0.38,0.74	0.74	0.23	0.50	-0.01	20	80%	0.82	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.09	0.10	0.01	6	79%	0.19	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Okaro White	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.06	0.00	3	71%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Willie Reed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.06	0.07	-0.01	12	36%	0.06	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.05	0.01	8	56%	0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.01	-0.04	5	21%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.07,-0.01,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.04	0.01	14	46%	0.02	4	-0.14	13	62%	-0.07
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	13	32%	-0.04	3	-0.09	5	40%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	26.5	15.4	28.0	1.6	48.6	147.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.7%

MIA +19.2%

MIA +1.4%

MIA +1.7%

MIA +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	12.8	16.6	14.8	104.1	107.1	107.7
season	13.5	15.4		114.9	106.7
opponent	14.5	15.1		105.9	103.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.2	13.8	12.5	11.6	12.8
MIA	15.0	18.3	16.3	17.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ian Clark	25	26	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.06	1	-4	5	12.7	12.8	-0.10	14.4	17.4	-3.01
Zaza Pachulia	55	56	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.00	-6	3	-9	13.9	11.3	2.59	16.4	16.9	-0.43
Klay Thompson	76	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-4	5	12.7	13.1	-0.43	17.2	14.9	2.25
Draymond Green	77	77	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.44	7	-10	17	12.6	13.3	-0.68	16.9	15.7	1.23
JaVale McGee	28	28	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.16	-3	0	-3	12.4	12.9	-0.56	16.0	16.9	-0.94
Stephen Curry	75	76	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.34	1	-4	5	11.9	15.4	-3.44	16.8	15.9	0.93
Shaun Livingston	43	43	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.37	1	-4	5	12.7	12.8	-0.10	17.3	16.1	1.28
Patrick McCaw	36	36	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.17	-8	5	-13	14.4	11.8	2.58	15.0	17.6	-2.58
Kevin Durant	75	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	6	-15	12.4	13.9	-1.51	17.2	15.1	2.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hassan Whiteside	70	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	-6	15	17.5	14.6	2.89	13.0	12.1	0.89
Wayne Ellington	69	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.43	0	3	-3	16.4	17.1	-0.62	12.4	13.5	-1.08
Okaro White	21	21	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	0	3	17.6	16.4	1.19	14.4	12.3	2.07
Dion Waiters	67	67	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.23	5	-2	7	17.1	15.7	1.40	12.1	14.2	-2.10
Goran Dragic	71	72	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.35	-3	6	-9	16.6	16.7	-0.15	13.0	12.2	0.77
Rodney McGruder	57	57	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.03	7	-4	11	16.8	16.4	0.46	12.9	12.6	0.33
Luke Babbitt	54	53	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.08	5	-2	7	15.8	17.6	-1.78	14.0	11.2	2.79
Willie Reed	24	23	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	5	-7	13.9	17.5	-3.65	13.0	12.7	0.32
James Johnson	57	57	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.31	-9	12	-21	16.8	16.5	0.29	11.3	14.7	-3.40

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.6,0.54,0.46,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.55,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.55,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.7,0.52,0.53,0.68,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.9,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 101, SEA 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.62,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.46,0.53,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.52,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.98,1,1	92.8%
DET 75, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.56,0.54,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.41,0.48,0.52,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.63,0.78,0.88,0.96,0.98,1,1,1,1	92.7%
PHX 87, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.36,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.38,0.32,0.43,0.48,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%