NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Washington Wizards	112		Excitement	9.7 [84]		MVP	Marcus Morris (DET): +96.6%
Detroit Pistons	113		Comeback	18.8 [77]		LVP	Reggie Jackson (DET): -41.8%

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Smith	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.01	-0.01	9	80%	0.15	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bradley Beal	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.11,0.11	-0.03	0.13	-0.00	15	41%	0.11	0	0.00	11	82%	0.08
Kelly Oubre Jr.	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	9	61%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	7	63%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.01
Trey Burke	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	5	70%	0.03	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,-0.11,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	17	50%	0.05	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00
Sheldon McClellan	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tomas Satoransky	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Otto Porter	-0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.02	0.00	13	39%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
John Wall	-0.26	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.17,-0.26	-0.06	-0.21	-0.01	15	49%	-0.18	4	-0.07	9	78%	0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.97	0.97	0.10	0.86	-0.00	17	58%	0.98	1	-0.01	9	89%	0.02
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.02	-0.00	4	82%	0.10	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	112%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Reggie Bullock	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	56%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	6	77%	0.10	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Ish Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Boban Marjanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.10	-0.14	0.00	2	37%	-0.02	4	-0.23	4	25%	-0.03
Tobias Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.37	-0.37	0.01	-0.40	-0.02	16	55%	-0.32	3	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.11,-0.08,-0.15,-0.24,-0.42	-0.42	-0.09	-0.32	0.01	21	43%	-0.28	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	1.6	34.4	15.4	27.8	0.8	31.6	137.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +69.6%

WAS -20.9%

DET +30.4%

WAS -38.8%

DET +9.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	WAS	DET	NBA	WAS	DET	NBA
this game	13.2	14.4	14.8	106.7	108.7	107.7
season	14.4	15.0		109.9	105.0
opponent	15.1	14.9		106.4	108.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
WAS	12.6	12.6	13.0	14.7	13.2
DET	12.2	13.6	15.8	16.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sheldon McClellan	9	9	0.15	-0.65	0.79	-0.12	9	-10	19	15.9	12.9	2.96	16.2	14.2	2.01
Trey Burke	19	19	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.07	5	-6	11	15.2	12.7	2.41	15.1	14.2	0.88
Jason Smith	40	41	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-1	1	13.9	12.7	1.20	14.3	14.4	-0.15
Tomas Satoransky	14	13	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	0.08	-10	9	-19	13.1	13.2	-0.13	11.9	14.7	-2.81
Markieff Morris	85	84	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.50	8	-9	17	12.9	14.3	-1.44	14.5	13.7	0.79
Kelly Oubre Jr.	55	55	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-4	7	14.5	11.8	2.67	14.8	13.9	0.92
Marcin Gortat	61	59	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.01	-11	10	-21	12.5	14.1	-1.61	13.2	16.0	-2.85
Bradley Beal	82	82	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.43	0	-1	1	12.9	14.2	-1.27	14.6	13.7	0.89
Otto Porter	74	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	2	-5	12.7	14.3	-1.62	14.9	13.1	1.83
John Wall	86	85	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.40	-6	5	-11	12.7	15.2	-2.41	14.2	15.1	-0.88

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Morris	83	83	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-8	17	14.3	14.6	-0.29	12.8	14.8	-2.01
Reggie Jackson	69	72	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.36	2	-1	3	14.2	14.7	-0.54	13.1	13.5	-0.40
Tobias Harris	85	87	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.41	0	1	-1	14.7	12.8	1.95	12.9	14.3	-1.39
Andre Drummond	37	38	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.49	-5	6	-11	14.4	14.4	-0.01	13.6	12.9	0.66
Aron Baynes	36	37	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	-8	17	13.6	14.8	-1.18	13.4	13.1	0.30
Reggie Bullock	75	78	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.54	-12	13	-25	14.6	13.8	0.87	13.2	13.1	0.09
Stanley Johnson	36	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.06	4	-3	7	14.3	14.4	-0.08	13.3	13.1	0.18
Ish Smith	35	33	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.11	-1	2	-3	14.7	14.2	0.54	13.5	13.1	0.40
Boban Marjanovic	11	12	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	-1	3	14.7	14.3	0.38	12.3	13.3	-0.96
Jon Leuer	53	52	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	4	-7	14.1	14.7	-0.67	13.9	12.5	1.39

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.35,0.38,0.44,0.41,0.45,0.43,0.51,0.62,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.73,0.69,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.97,0.93,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.62,0.77,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 88, ATL 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.68,0.71,0.61,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.66,0.63,0.67,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.92,0.82,0.9,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.8,0.72,0.57,0.58,1	92.8%
PHX 83, SAC 85	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.72,0.82,0.78,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.85,0.95,0.96,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.83,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.81,0.57,0.29,1	91.4%
PHI 95, DET 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.63,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.87,0.9,0.95,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.88,0.9,0.88,0.83,0.85,0.82,0.89,0.72,0.33,0.59,1	91.4%