NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	8.1 [253]		MVP	Isaiah Thomas (BOS): +94.3%
Boston Celtics	117		Comeback	2.5 [753]		LVP	Justise Winslow (MIA): -15.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wayne Ellington	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.06	-0.01	11	64%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.23,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	13	76%	0.30	5	-0.19	3	67%	-0.02
Willie Reed	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.06	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.01	9	55%	0.10	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.07,0.05	0.10	-0.03	0.02	13	68%	0.18	1	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Luke Babbitt	0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	62%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Richardson	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.00	-0.03	0.05	17	54%	0.02	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Justise Winslow	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.05	-0.06	0.05	13	39%	-0.11	1	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.27,0.38,0.45,0.55,0.59,0.69,0.69,0.69,0.82,0.94	0.94	0.41	0.54	0.00	26	80%	1.01	2	-0.06	13	100%	0.09
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.03	0.02	12	81%	0.21	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.00
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.03	0.00	4	67%	0.09	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.05	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	1	67%	0.02	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.01
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	0.02	7	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.06	-0.00	7	31%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.4	27.6	15.7	24.2	2.3	39.5	135.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +39.7%

BOS +18.7%

MIA -4.0%

MIA -1.5%

MIA -2.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	14.7	14.8	118.8	124.5	107.7
season	15.4	14.7		106.7	110.1
opponent	14.9	14.5		108.3	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.2	16.2	17.6	12.8	15.6
BOS	14.3	13.1	17.6	14.3	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	30	27	0.11	-0.61	0.71	0.02	3	-6	9	17.7	14.7	3.05	17.0	13.8	3.17
Willie Reed	28	29	0.01	-0.51	0.53	-0.13	5	-8	13	15.2	15.7	-0.50	14.7	14.7	-0.02
Rodney McGruder	58	54	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.26	3	-6	9	16.8	13.8	2.92	14.7	14.6	0.09
Tyler Johnson	58	61	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.27	3	-6	9	13.9	18.1	-4.18	15.0	14.1	0.90
Hassan Whiteside	63	59	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.01	-7	4	-11	16.4	14.0	2.44	15.3	13.7	1.66
Justise Winslow	58	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	-8	5	-13	16.5	14.2	2.35	15.4	13.7	1.69
James Johnson	51	52	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.54	-1	-2	1	14.1	17.4	-3.30	13.6	16.0	-2.39
Wayne Ellington	63	63	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.41	-6	3	-9	14.7	17.4	-2.77	13.7	16.6	-2.90
Josh Richardson	71	68	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.39	-7	4	-11	15.7	15.3	0.44	14.1	16.3	-2.17

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Smart	64	68	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.26	11	-8	19	14.6	14.8	-0.19	16.0	14.7	1.31
Amir Johnson	41	44	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.14	15	-12	27	15.0	14.5	0.49	17.9	13.7	4.21
Jae Crowder	59	62	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.26	9	-6	15	14.5	15.0	-0.43	16.2	14.5	1.71
Isaiah Thomas	72	74	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.19	10	-7	17	15.0	13.8	1.21	15.8	14.9	0.90
Al Horford	61	63	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.28	5	-2	7	14.9	14.4	0.52	16.0	14.9	1.01
Jonas Jerebko	48	47	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.38	-4	7	-11	14.1	15.3	-1.14	13.8	17.4	-3.60
Terry Rozier	43	42	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.25	-2	5	-7	14.3	15.1	-0.78	14.9	16.2	-1.33
Jaylen Brown	32	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.18	-8	11	-19	15.1	14.5	0.64	14.5	16.1	-1.65
Gerald Green	12	12	-0.23	0.73	-0.96	0.09	-11	14	-25	14.5	14.7	-0.23	14.5	15.8	-1.26
Kelly Olynyk	38	38	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	0.03	-10	13	-23	14.8	14.6	0.19	14.7	16.2	-1.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.33,0.41,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.48,0.6,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.52,0.38,0.58,0.69,0.8,0.73,0.86,0.84,0.57,0.77,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 103, ATL 108	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.63,0.54,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.59,0.77,0.72,0.62,0.57,0.48,0.43,0.53,0.7,0.76,0.9,0.91,0.79,0.68,0.9,1	92.1%
MEM 83, DEN 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.54,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.4,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.54,0.37,0.42,0.64,0.65,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.35,0.69,1	91.3%
TOR 110, NYK 113	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.55,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.29,0.31,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.59,0.79,0.72,0.75,0.79,0.57,0.73,1	91.2%