NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	92		Excitement	8.4 [216]		MVP	Maurice Harkless (POR): +21.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	99		Comeback	8.5 [243]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -20.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh McRoberts	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	9	68%	0.13	2	-0.07	1	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.06,0.06	0.17	-0.09	0.03	16	74%	0.13	1	-0.07	6	67%	0.00
Willie Reed	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyler Johnson	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.09	0.07	-0.03	14	30%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Rodney McGruder	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	-0.02	9	39%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	13	43%	0.02	1	-0.07	2	50%	-0.04
James Johnson	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.21	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.17,-0.21	-0.10	-0.12	-0.01	19	45%	-0.06	5	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.06	0.15	0.00	12	61%	0.26	1	-0.05	4	100%	0.05
Allen Crabbe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.11	0.04	0.00	11	67%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
CJ McCollum	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.06,0.04,0.11	0.11	-0.03	0.14	-0.00	18	44%	0.13	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.02
Mason Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.02	8	61%	0.10	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	6	42%	0.05	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.05,-0.12,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	19	43%	0.05	2	-0.10	6	83%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	36%	-0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.4	2.3	30.5	15.5	25.0	1.8	34.1	137.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +41.4%

POR +0.7%

MIA -18.8%

POR +17.3%

POR +9.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	POR	NBA	MIA	POR	NBA
this game	15.4	14.8	14.8	95.8	104.2	107.7
season	15.4	14.9		106.7	108.6
opponent	14.5	14.5		109.8	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	13.7	14.9	18.3	15.4
POR	15.8	14.0	17.1	12.5	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh McRoberts	56	56	0.43	-0.93	1.36	-0.07	17	-24	41	15.4	15.3	0.04	15.5	13.7	1.80
Wayne Ellington	77	75	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.21	6	-13	19	15.2	15.9	-0.71	15.0	13.9	1.11
Willie Reed	16	15	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.07	-9	2	-11	12.9	15.9	-2.93	13.4	15.0	-1.64
Hassan Whiteside	80	80	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-9	11	15.9	12.9	2.93	15.0	13.4	1.64
Rodney McGruder	77	75	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.23	-3	-4	1	15.6	14.5	1.12	14.5	16.0	-1.55
James Johnson	37	36	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	0.12	-20	13	-33	14.3	16.1	-1.80	14.7	14.8	-0.05
Goran Dragic	71	73	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.57	-3	-4	1	15.5	15.1	0.34	14.8	14.7	0.13
Tyler Johnson	68	67	-0.96	0.46	-1.42	-0.17	-27	20	-47	15.6	14.9	0.68	13.8	17.1	-3.30

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Crabbe	55	55	0.72	-0.22	0.94	0.13	20	-13	33	14.4	15.3	-0.99	15.3	15.5	-0.15
Mason Plumlee	67	68	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.44	8	-1	9	14.0	16.7	-2.79	16.0	14.0	1.99
Damian Lillard	70	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.55	3	4	-1	15.0	14.2	0.84	15.2	15.9	-0.68
CJ McCollum	65	67	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.40	-1	8	-9	14.4	15.5	-1.10	15.3	15.6	-0.30
Maurice Harkless	65	66	0.25	0.25	-0.00	0.43	-6	13	-19	14.2	16.0	-1.78	16.3	13.3	3.07
Noah Vonleh	8	9	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.06	3	4	-1	16.1	14.7	1.47	11.9	15.7	-3.85
Meyers Leonard	39	38	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.20	6	1	5	15.8	14.1	1.72	14.1	16.2	-2.15
Evan Turner	55	55	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.39	11	-4	15	14.9	14.6	0.31	15.5	15.3	0.19
Ed Davis	51	51	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.17	-9	16	-25	16.0	13.3	2.72	15.3	15.5	-0.17

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.59,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.59,0.67,0.69,0.6,0.61,0.42,0.42,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.6,0.68,0.58,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.19,0.26,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.1,0.32,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 81, VAN 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.5,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.52,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.51,0.32,0.26,0.46,0.28,0.1,0.28,0.41,0.91,1	89.5%
IND 87, TOR 88	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.51,0.5,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.43,0.29,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.57,0.72,1	89.5%
CLE 88, DET 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.52,0.48,0.54,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.63,0.64,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.48,0.37,0.31,0.35,0.39,0.24,0.21,0.33,0.42,1	89.5%