NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	121		Excitement	6.4 [563]		MVP	Marcus Morris (DET): +22.1%
Boston Celtics	114		Comeback	1.3 [350]		LVP	Darrun Hilliard (DET): -8.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Morris	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.08	0.12	-0.02	13	71%	0.30	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.03
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.19	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.13	0.07	0.01	17	66%	0.22	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ish Smith	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.05	0.02	12	73%	0.16	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Jon Leuer	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	5	100%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.08	0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	20	52%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.06	-0.03	0.05	13	61%	0.03	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.05
Aron Baynes	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	67%	0.03	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darrun Hilliard	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kelly Olynyk	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.17	0.01	0.00	9	95%	0.20	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.11	0.01	0.01	20	61%	0.17	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	-0.00	0.01	7	65%	0.06	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Terry Rozier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.02	0.04	-0.02	5	27%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.02	-0.01	15	44%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	-0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.06	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Tyler Zeller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jaylen Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.04	-0.00	0.09	12	54%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Marcus Smart	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	14	40%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.4	27.9	15.0	22.8	1.8	39.1	131.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +41.3%

BOS -9.3%

DET +31.3%

BOS -14.1%

DET +0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BOS	NBA	DET	BOS	NBA
this game	15.1	15.0	14.8	126.0	120.0	107.7
season	15.0	14.7		105.0	110.1
opponent	14.9	15.1		108.3	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.5	15.2	16.5	14.5	15.1
BOS	16.1	16.1	14.8	13.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	71	68	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.39	15	-8	23	14.9	15.9	-0.99	15.1	14.8	0.27
Ish Smith	72	71	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.39	12	-5	17	14.8	16.2	-1.42	15.0	15.0	0.07
Tobias Harris	71	70	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.35	12	-5	17	15.1	15.4	-0.29	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Andre Drummond	69	68	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	2	3	16.4	12.0	4.33	14.9	15.3	-0.45
Marcus Morris	76	76	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.22	3	4	-1	15.3	14.4	0.88	14.9	15.4	-0.45
Aron Baynes	25	24	0.00	0.50	-0.49	-0.03	1	6	-5	12.9	15.9	-3.01	16.6	14.5	2.16
Jon Leuer	47	47	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.02	-1	8	-9	14.4	15.9	-1.54	14.7	15.3	-0.65
Beno Udrih	24	24	-0.25	0.75	-0.99	-0.13	-4	11	-15	16.2	14.8	1.42	15.0	15.0	-0.07
Darrun Hilliard	25	27	-0.33	0.83	-1.16	-0.09	-8	15	-23	15.9	14.9	0.99	14.8	15.1	-0.27

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kelly Olynyk	49	52	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.22	10	-17	27	15.3	14.7	0.69	15.6	14.6	0.94
Marcus Smart	47	49	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-8	9	15.0	15.0	-0.02	14.7	15.6	-0.88
Amir Johnson	31	30	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.01	-1	-6	5	14.5	15.2	-0.69	16.3	14.6	1.68
Tyler Zeller	8	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.03	-1	-6	5	18.7	14.7	4.08	13.6	15.3	-1.75
Terry Rozier	30	28	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-5	3	15.3	14.9	0.37	16.2	14.7	1.46
Jaylen Brown	8	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	0	-7	17.9	14.7	3.13	13.0	15.3	-2.34
Jonas Jerebko	28	29	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	15.9	14.6	1.25	15.1	15.2	-0.06
Jae Crowder	71	73	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.25	-3	-4	1	14.8	15.6	-0.82	15.0	15.7	-0.72
Isaiah Thomas	64	67	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-1	-5	15.1	14.8	0.30	14.9	15.7	-0.78
Al Horford	66	64	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.32	-9	2	-11	14.3	16.6	-2.22	15.0	15.5	-0.48
Avery Bradley	73	71	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	-0.36	-9	2	-11	14.5	16.5	-2.00	15.2	14.9	0.36

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.45,0.41,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.28,0.47,0.34,0.1,0.19,0.07,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 87, MIL 81	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.35,0.42,0.48,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.33,0.36,0.3,0.23,0.2,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.36,0.35,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.08,0	93.3%
NJN 94, CHA 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.4,0.44,0.5,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.29,0.14,0.28,0.41,0.4,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.08,0	92.7%
NJN 96, ORL 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.34,0.27,0.36,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.21,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.38,0.47,0.41,0.24,0.17,0.19,0.05,0,0,0	92.7%