NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	105		Excitement	7.3 [406]		MVP	Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL): +28.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	99		Comeback	1.2 [860]		LVP	Jabari Parker (MIL): -14.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Lowry	0.24	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.24,0.24	0.10	0.17	0.03	13	70%	0.30	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.21	0.08	0.13	0.01	18	57%	0.22	1	-0.02	10	80%	-0.01
Patrick Patterson	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.03	7	69%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.01	0.01	9	70%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Terrence Ross	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.00	0.09	0.00	8	50%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	-0.01	11	55%	0.07	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	45%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pascal Siakam	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	3	60%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.03
Lucas Nogueira	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.18,0.27,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.19	0.02	17	72%	0.39	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.01
Malcolm Brogdon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	0.00	5	80%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	75%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Snell	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.11	-0.01	-0.00	12	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.02	0.08	0.01	9	58%	0.14	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.03
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	2	83%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Greg Monroe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	7	14%	-0.11	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jabari Parker	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.13	-0.01	14	47%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.0	2.0	28.1	14.8	27.1	2.5	36.5	133.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +19.2%

TOR +12.3%

TOR +14.8%

TOR +0.4%

TOR +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	MIL	NBA	TOR	MIL	NBA
this game	17.2	15.3	14.8	118.0	112.5	107.7
season	15.2	14.9		110.0	107.4
opponent	15.3	14.9		107.8	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	18.4	14.6	19.1	17.2	17.2
MIL	15.0	16.7	16.1	13.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyle Lowry	71	69	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.28	5	1	4	17.3	17.2	0.09	14.9	16.8	-1.97
Cory Joseph	49	51	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	3	0	16.2	18.5	-2.34	15.9	14.4	1.54
Patrick Patterson	49	47	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	2	2	16.3	18.4	-2.11	15.1	15.6	-0.50
DeMarre Carroll	49	46	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.06	10	-4	14	17.3	17.1	0.25	14.4	16.2	-1.80
DeMar DeRozan	63	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.21	5	1	4	18.3	14.7	3.59	14.8	16.5	-1.71
Jonas Valanciunas	59	57	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.12	5	1	4	17.6	16.5	1.16	14.6	16.5	-1.88
Lucas Nogueira	28	29	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	5	-4	16.3	17.7	-1.33	17.4	14.3	3.11
Pascal Siakam	40	41	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.05	2	4	-2	18.4	16.3	2.11	15.6	15.1	0.50
Terrence Ross	37	38	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.16	-5	11	-16	16.7	17.6	-0.87	16.5	14.4	2.07

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mirza Teletovic	25	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	-0.02	-1	-5	4	17.2	14.6	2.60	14.5	18.2	-3.75
Greg Monroe	36	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-5	4	16.7	14.3	2.41	15.6	18.3	-2.73
Malcolm Brogdon	35	35	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.10	-1	-5	4	16.3	14.7	1.60	15.7	18.3	-2.60
Michael Beasley	30	28	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.02	-4	-2	-2	16.9	14.4	2.49	15.6	18.0	-2.32
Miles Plumlee	35	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	0	-6	15.2	15.4	-0.16	18.7	16.3	2.34
Jason Terry	45	45	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.33	2	-8	10	15.2	15.3	-0.10	16.2	18.3	-2.19
Matthew Dellavedova	53	54	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.22	-5	-1	-4	14.7	16.3	-1.60	18.3	15.7	2.60
Tony Snell	58	60	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.19	-7	1	-8	14.7	16.5	-1.83	18.2	15.3	2.86
Giannis Antetokounmpo	62	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.31	-3	-3	0	14.6	16.9	-2.26	18.3	14.4	3.89
Jabari Parker	61	64	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.32	-4	-2	-2	14.2	17.7	-3.42	17.9	15.6	2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.24,0.29,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.24,0.14,0.25,0.26,0.33,0.38,0.2,0.27,0.17,0.16,0.13,0.25,0.22,0.45,0.09,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 86, TOR 80	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.39,0.32,0.25,0.26,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.3,0.29,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.16,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.13,0.14,0.22,0.33,0.08,0	92.4%
CHA 95, TOR 90	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.13,0.3,0.34,0.21,0.16,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.16,0.08,0	91.9%
ORL 97, PHX 91	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.36,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.33,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.25,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.21,0.33,0.08,0	91.8%