NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	115		Excitement	4.5 [921]		MVP	Cory Joseph (TOR): +9.8%
Houston Rockets	102		Comeback	1.1 [583]		LVP	Eric Gordon (HOU): -13.2%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.02	11	71%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.03	0.02	-0.04	19	53%	0.12	2	-0.03	7	86%	0.02
Terrence Ross	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.00	12	58%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05	0.10	0.02	0.07	14	71%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	15	50%	0.07	3	-0.07	4	75%	-0.01
Pascal Siakam	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lucas Nogueira	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	1	25%	-0.01	2	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	0.02	10	62%	0.05	5	-0.11	4	75%	-0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.00	0.01	7	86%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	11	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	-0.03	6	83%	0.07	4	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Montrezl Harrell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.02	3	100%	0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Sam Dekker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	5	30%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	0.03	0.09	13	76%	0.12	12	-0.19	12	100%	0.02
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	0.05	13	50%	-0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.13	-0.01	-0.01	13	35%	-0.06	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	1.7	27.6	14.7	30.3	1.7	28.9	128.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +19.0%

TOR +1.7%

TOR +6.4%

TOR +20.8%

TOR +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	HOU	NBA	TOR	HOU	NBA
this game	15.8	13.2	14.8	115.0	103.0	107.7
season	15.2	13.7		110.0	113.2
opponent	14.9	14.9		108.1	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	15.2	13.7	16.7	17.8	15.8
HOU	13.0	14.0	11.0	14.9	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMar DeRozan	75	74	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.00	17	-4	21	15.9	15.4	0.47	12.5	15.2	-2.70
Jonas Valanciunas	61	62	0.49	0.01	0.48	-0.01	17	-4	21	15.9	15.5	0.47	13.2	13.1	0.07
DeMarre Carroll	53	53	0.34	0.16	0.19	-0.04	13	0	13	16.3	15.1	1.25	13.2	13.2	0.01
Pascal Siakam	45	44	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	3	7	15.5	15.9	-0.39	12.6	13.7	-1.10
Kyle Lowry	70	70	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.17	4	9	-5	16.3	14.4	1.98	14.7	9.5	5.23
Cory Joseph	57	55	0.21	0.29	-0.07	0.13	3	10	-7	15.1	16.6	-1.46	12.0	14.7	-2.70
Patrick Patterson	55	55	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.10	3	10	-7	15.9	15.5	0.39	13.7	12.6	1.10
Terrence Ross	45	45	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	11	-9	14.7	16.6	-1.85	13.4	13.0	0.36
Lucas Nogueira	39	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	17	-21	15.5	15.9	-0.47	13.1	13.2	-0.07

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Sam Dekker	39	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-14	15	11.7	14.1	-2.37	14.4	16.6	-2.24
Corey Brewer	22	21	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.01	-3	-10	7	12.7	13.3	-0.58	15.9	15.7	0.20
Nene	12	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.00	-4	-9	5	11.3	13.4	-2.10	14.4	16.0	-1.57
Clint Capela	60	60	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.09	-3	-10	7	14.9	10.6	4.28	16.2	15.0	1.25
Patrick Beverley	69	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-11	9	14.5	10.1	4.42	16.2	14.8	1.37
Montrezl Harrell	27	27	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	-7	1	10.3	14.3	-4.02	15.3	15.9	-0.62
Eric Gordon	60	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.15	-6	-7	1	12.8	13.8	-0.97	15.5	16.1	-0.62
Trevor Ariza	64	65	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	0.06	-16	3	-19	13.2	13.2	-0.03	15.6	16.0	-0.34
Ryan Anderson	58	59	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.03	-14	1	-15	13.4	12.9	0.48	16.5	14.6	1.93
James Harden	84	86	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.14	-12	-1	-11	13.0	14.1	-1.12	15.7	16.0	-0.29

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.43,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.53,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 109, SAS 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.4,0.41,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.32,0.29,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.14,0.11,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
SAC 101, HOU 74	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.2,0.17,0.11,0.16,0.23,0.16,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.13,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%
MIA 117, HOU 109	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.14,0.16,0.11,0.21,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0,0	96.0%