NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	107		Excitement	9.9 [69]		MVP	Jimmy Butler (CHI): +45.8%
Denver Nuggets	110		Comeback	3.2 [275]		LVP	Wilson Chandler (DEN): -23.9%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jimmy Butler	0.46	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.35,0.46	0.22	0.23	-0.01	20	67%	0.46	1	0.00	12	92%	0.11
Dwyane Wade	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	21	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Taj Gibson	0.02	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	-0.02	0.00	11	55%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Denzel Valentine	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.08	0.00	12	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Mirotic	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.01	-0.09	0.01	10	46%	-0.04	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.05
Rajon Rondo	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.00	-0.12	0.00	11	59%	0.04	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Canaan	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18	-0.06	-0.12	-0.00	6	17%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.24,0.26	0.26	0.10	0.18	0.01	9	68%	0.26	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.24,0.27,0.31,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.22	0.04	0.01	13	83%	0.25	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12,0.12	0.12	-0.08	0.18	-0.02	13	36%	0.17	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.09
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	5	67%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.08	0.06	0.00	7	31%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.05
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	4	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.09	0.01	9	56%	-0.01	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.18	-0.18	0.00	-0.18	0.00	13	54%	0.04	2	-0.22	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.24	-0.09	-0.16	-0.01	23	34%	-0.21	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	27.6	14.8	22.2	2.4	43.3	135.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +24.7%

DEN +11.3%

DEN +22.7%

CHI -14.4%

DEN +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DEN	NBA	CHI	DEN	NBA
this game	14.0	15.5	14.8	109.2	113.4	107.7
season	15.1	14.4		105.9	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.8		111.2	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.5	13.9	13.4	13.4	14.0
DEN	18.1	13.3	15.4	16.0	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	72	71	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.33	12	-15	27	13.8	14.5	-0.63	16.0	14.3	1.64
Jimmy Butler	80	78	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.57	18	-21	39	13.6	15.6	-1.97	16.2	12.8	3.43
Bobby Portis	18	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.17	-9	6	-15	14.4	13.9	0.54	13.0	16.1	-3.09
Denzel Valentine	28	27	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.11	-9	6	-15	15.6	13.4	2.20	14.3	16.0	-1.73
Rajon Rondo	70	68	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.30	3	-6	9	13.4	15.5	-2.05	16.0	14.6	1.42
Dwyane Wade	71	72	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.46	0	-3	3	13.9	14.4	-0.51	15.6	15.4	0.14
Robin Lopez	70	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.54	0	-3	3	14.2	13.5	0.75	16.3	13.8	2.48
Nikola Mirotic	45	47	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.29	-9	6	-15	13.9	14.1	-0.12	14.5	16.5	-2.01
Isaiah Canaan	37	37	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	0.02	-22	19	-41	14.4	13.8	0.61	14.2	16.4	-2.24

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Wilson Chandler	68	69	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-10	23	15.0	16.8	-1.78	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Danilo Gallinari	71	72	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.56	-2	5	-7	16.3	13.4	2.95	14.2	13.5	0.73
Will Barton	52	54	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.49	-4	7	-11	16.5	14.4	2.10	13.8	14.2	-0.41
Jamal Murray	45	45	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.10	9	-6	15	14.4	16.5	-2.10	14.0	14.0	0.08
Nikola Jokic	38	40	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.11	13	-10	23	14.7	16.1	-1.37	13.6	14.3	-0.72
Jameer Nelson	44	44	0.18	0.32	-0.15	-0.09	9	-6	15	14.7	16.2	-1.50	14.2	13.8	0.41
Jusuf Nurkic	58	58	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.39	-10	13	-23	16.3	14.4	1.90	14.3	13.6	0.72
Emmanuel Mudiay	53	53	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.32	-8	11	-19	16.2	14.7	1.50	14.0	14.0	-0.08
Kenneth Faried	30	29	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	0.29	-10	13	-23	16.3	15.2	1.14	14.6	13.7	0.88
Juan Hernangomez	26	26	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.15	5	-2	7	13.4	16.3	-2.95	13.5	14.2	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.32,0.45,0.58,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.62,0.52,0.62,0.53,0.63,0.74,0.66,0.6,0.53,0.64,0.55,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 82, DET 85	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.37,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.59,0.46,0.42,0.47,0.49,0.37,0.4,0.36,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.58,0.63,0.7,0.54,0.4,0.31,0.45,0.53,0.72,1	91.2%
UTA 93, BOS 98	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.52,0.62,0.76,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.71,0.72,0.79,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.72,0.67,0.58,1	90.2%
UTA 101, CLE 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.64,0.71,0.82,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.83,1	90.1%