NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	113		Excitement	12.8 [10]		MVP	Terrence Ross (TOR): +46.8%
Denver Nuggets	111		Comeback	4.3 [378]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -27.1%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Terrence Ross	0.47	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.47	0.09	0.38	-0.00	11	70%	0.50	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.03
Jonas Valanciunas	0.23	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23	0.08	0.15	-0.01	9	60%	0.23	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.13
DeMar DeRozan	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,0.05,0.13,0.19,0.12,0.05,0.2,0.2	-0.01	0.22	0.01	25	50%	0.31	4	-0.11	10	60%	-0.05
Jakob Poeltl	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	2	86%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
DeMarre Carroll	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	9	55%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Pascal Siakam	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.02	0.01	6	67%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norman Powell	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	4	40%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Cory Joseph	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	9	22%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.22,-0.22	-0.08	-0.16	-0.03	4	10%	-0.07	1	-0.15	2	50%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	-0.27	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.22,-0.22,-0.27	-0.03	-0.22	0.02	15	53%	-0.09	4	-0.18	4	75%	-0.04

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.34	0.34	-0.04	0.39	-0.00	6	42%	0.51	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.14	0.06	-0.00	17	62%	0.20	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.07
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	4	78%	0.12	2	-0.11	1	100%	0.01
Juan Hernangomez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.03	9	58%	-0.01	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.02
Alonzo Gee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.06
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	18	58%	0.23	5	-0.29	7	71%	0.05
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	8	50%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	8	28%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.02	-0.22	-0.00	13	54%	-0.09	4	-0.14	13	100%	0.09

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	21.9	2.3	29.6	15.4	27.6	2.5	36.2	1.8	18.2	155.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.0%

DEN -24.0%

TOR +5.0%

TOR +29.3%

TOR +6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	14.8	13.9	14.8	101.8	100.0	107.7
season	15.2	14.4		110.0	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.9		111.2	106.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	15.1	13.8	15.1	16.8	12.0	14.8
DEN	14.9	11.9	13.7	16.0	12.9	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Terrence Ross	62	63	1.07	-0.57	1.64	0.93	5	-3	8	14.9	14.6	0.36	14.3	13.4	0.92
Kyle Lowry	82	80	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.49	9	-7	16	14.5	15.6	-1.15	14.1	13.2	0.94
Jonas Valanciunas	77	76	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.53	4	-2	6	15.0	14.2	0.86	14.0	13.5	0.48
Patrick Patterson	63	62	0.57	-0.07	0.65	0.46	4	-2	6	14.3	15.3	-0.98	14.5	13.1	1.42
DeMar DeRozan	75	75	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.31	8	-6	14	15.1	14.1	0.98	13.9	13.8	0.10
DeMarre Carroll	47	48	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	-0.07	1	1	0	14.9	14.7	0.13	13.4	14.3	-0.92
Pascal Siakam	48	49	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.02	-2	4	-6	15.3	14.3	0.98	13.1	14.5	-1.42
Jakob Poeltl	34	35	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.09	-2	4	-6	14.2	15.0	-0.86	13.5	14.0	-0.48
Cory Joseph	41	43	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	0.03	-11	13	-24	14.9	14.7	0.16	13.6	14.1	-0.48
Norman Powell	26	24	-0.52	1.02	-1.55	-0.35	-6	8	-14	14.1	15.0	-0.86	13.4	14.0	-0.58

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	52	51	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.02	3	-5	8	14.0	13.7	0.27	14.9	14.6	0.31
Juan Hernangomez	16	18	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-3	4	14.5	13.8	0.73	13.7	15.0	-1.26
Nikola Jokic	57	57	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-5	8	13.8	13.9	-0.14	15.0	14.5	0.46
Jamal Murray	40	39	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	0	-2	14.1	13.8	0.31	14.2	15.1	-0.96
Jameer Nelson	75	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.14	-2	0	-2	14.3	13.1	1.17	15.0	14.2	0.80
Danilo Gallinari	90	89	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-5	8	13.4	15.7	-2.27	15.1	13.6	1.48
Kenneth Faried	51	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.27	-3	1	-4	14.0	13.8	0.20	14.8	14.7	0.12
Wilson Chandler	76	77	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.54	3	-5	8	13.4	14.9	-1.52	14.5	15.3	-0.75
Alonzo Gee	3	3	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.25	-8	6	-14	13.3	13.9	-0.56	7.7	15.0	-7.31
Emmanuel Mudiay	95	95	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.42	-8	6	-14	14.1	12.6	1.53	14.9	14.0	0.91

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.32,0.44,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.64,0.7,0.81,0.74,0.53,0.58,0.45,0.65,0.47,0.39,0.27,0.55,0.27,0.5,0.55,0.45,0.69,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 110, BOS 109	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.6,0.72,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.72,0.66,0.7,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.78,0.27,0.46,0.55,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	88.3%
PHI 101, MIA 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.54,0.63,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.5,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.63,0.64,0.46,0.46,0.39,0.16,0.23,0.58,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.95,0.18,0	87.7%
DEN 123, GSW 118	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.33,0.44,0.51,0.41,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.39,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.39,0.15,0.22,0.08,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.33,0.42,0	87.6%