NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	90		Excitement	4.5 [911]		MVP	Patty Mills (SAS): +8.3%
San Antonio Spurs	94		Comeback	1.2 [1233]		LVP	Josh McRoberts (MIA): -11.2%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Hassan Whiteside	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.09	0.00	0.06	11	74%	0.11	4	-0.08	9	56%	-0.03
James Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Luke Babbitt	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney McGruder	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Johnson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03	0.00	-0.01	0.02	9	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Derrick Williams	-0.03	0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	6	36%	-0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Josh Richardson	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.00	9	44%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dion Waiters	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	0.08	26	52%	0.01	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.01	0.02	12	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.03	-0.01	6	0%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.12	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	14	60%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	19	51%	0.10	4	-0.07	9	78%	-0.01
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dejounte Murray	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Davis Bertans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.02	-0.03	15	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Kyle Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	10	46%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Jonathon Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	36%	-0.03	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	2.4	29.6	15.3	28.6	2.6	36.3	138.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.8%

SAS +6.8%

SAS +13.2%

MIA -6.1%

SAS +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	SAS	NBA	MIA	SAS	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	14.8	94.7	96.9	107.7
season	15.4	15.4		106.7	110.1
opponent	14.8	14.5		103.7	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	17.0	16.4	13.9	12.5	14.9
SAS	13.0	15.6	15.4	16.3	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Babbitt	13	13	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.04	0	-4	4	17.2	14.5	2.61	17.8	14.7	3.18
Derrick Williams	32	33	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.03	-3	-1	-2	14.8	15.0	-0.14	15.1	15.1	0.04
Josh McRoberts	28	28	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.05	-4	0	-4	14.6	15.0	-0.37	15.0	15.1	-0.08
Justise Winslow	72	74	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.47	9	-13	22	14.7	15.6	-0.87	14.1	18.1	-3.98
Rodney McGruder	35	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.05	-6	2	-8	15.7	14.4	1.33	15.9	14.6	1.29
Hassan Whiteside	67	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.32	0	-4	4	15.0	14.6	0.37	15.3	14.5	0.82
James Johnson	35	36	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.00	-11	7	-18	15.8	14.4	1.42	14.3	15.6	-1.25
Tyler Johnson	65	67	-0.33	-0.17	-0.17	-0.36	1	-5	6	14.6	15.5	-0.87	15.1	15.0	0.13
Dion Waiters	71	71	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.34	-1	-3	2	14.6	15.9	-1.30	15.3	14.4	0.91
Josh Richardson	57	60	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.25	-5	1	-6	14.4	15.7	-1.34	15.0	15.2	-0.11

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LaMarcus Aldridge	70	69	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.18	8	-4	12	16.3	11.9	4.39	15.0	14.6	0.45
Pau Gasol	60	59	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.20	6	-2	8	16.5	12.7	3.82	15.0	14.8	0.21
Tony Parker	49	51	0.35	0.15	0.19	-0.09	15	-11	26	16.9	13.3	3.61	15.0	14.8	0.12
Kawhi Leonard	70	69	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	5	-6	14.7	16.1	-1.46	15.0	14.8	0.19
Jonathon Simmons	46	43	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.30	1	3	-2	16.3	14.0	2.26	14.0	15.7	-1.74
Danny Green	28	28	0.23	0.27	-0.05	-0.01	8	-4	12	15.4	15.0	0.42	16.9	14.1	2.87
Patty Mills	53	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.47	-10	14	-24	13.6	16.9	-3.28	14.1	15.8	-1.66
Dewayne Dedmon	21	21	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	3	-2	12.8	15.7	-2.91	16.6	14.4	2.20
Manu Ginobili	36	34	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	3	-2	14.1	15.7	-1.52	15.3	14.7	0.61
David Lee	35	34	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	3	-2	14.5	15.4	-0.86	15.3	14.7	0.61
Kyle Anderson	13	14	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.18	-6	10	-16	10.1	15.9	-5.79	13.5	15.1	-1.65
Dejounte Murray	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.12	-4	8	-12	1.3	15.5	-14.20	7.0	15.2	-8.16
Davis Bertans	1	1	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.01	0	4	-4	7.0	15.2	-8.18	0.0	15.1	-15.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.89,0.88,0.81,0.86,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.87,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.79,0.82,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.94,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 99, WAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.77,0.77,0.83,0.87,0.79,0.85,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.88,0.87,0.87,0.84,0.87,0.85,0.84,0.82,0.88,0.86,0.87,0.84,0.82,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.99,1,1	95.6%
NYK 91, HOU 103	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.73,0.7,0.77,0.76,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.88,0.89,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.81,0.79,0.83,0.85,0.9,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.81,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.6%
SAC 89, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.5%