NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	115		Excitement	9.9 [71]		MVP	Damian Lillard (POR): +57.4%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	1665.7 [2]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -17.7%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Damian Lillard	0.57	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.57	0.10	0.48	0.01	27	63%	0.87	5	-0.30	5	100%	0.04
CJ McCollum	0.11	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,0.05,0.12,-0.05,-0.05,0.11	-0.02	0.13	-0.00	25	45%	0.17	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mason Plumlee	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	8	59%	0.06	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Allen Crabbe	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	-0.00	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Evan Turner	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	9	61%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Noah Vonleh	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shabazz Napier	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maurice Harkless	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	6	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14	-0.06	-0.10	-0.02	6	31%	-0.14	1	-0.00	4	50%	-0.03

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.08,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.12	0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	20	53%	0.15	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	-0.02	4	58%	0.03	2	-0.04	4	75%	0.00
Jamal Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.03	11	46%	0.01	3	-0.05	2	0%	-0.07
Will Barton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	-0.00	13	47%	-0.02	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.04
Jusuf Nurkic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	9	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.02	20	46%	0.12	5	-0.21	6	83%	0.05
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.15	-0.03	16	40%	-0.12	2	-0.06	10	90%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.3	2.6	32.3	25.6	29.6	1.8	64.5	2.5	12.2	197.5
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.9	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +98.3%

DEN -7.9%

DEN -37.2%

DEN -9.1%

POR +5.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	13.8	13.5	14.8	98.3	97.4	107.7
season	14.9	14.4		108.6	111.6
opponent	14.5	14.5		111.2	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	15.1	14.6	14.1	10.3	16.9	13.8
DEN	13.1	12.1	11.6	16.4	16.4	13.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allen Crabbe	68	67	1.26	-0.76	2.02	0.73	18	-16	34	13.1	14.7	-1.68	12.3	15.2	-2.96
Damian Lillard	89	90	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.42	2	0	2	13.7	14.1	-0.41	13.6	13.2	0.39
CJ McCollum	90	90	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.48	-1	3	-4	13.8	13.7	0.07	14.1	11.5	2.67
Al-Farouq Aminu	68	69	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.41	-1	3	-4	13.7	13.8	-0.06	14.6	12.0	2.51
Maurice Harkless	66	69	0.16	0.34	-0.18	-0.11	9	-7	16	13.7	13.8	-0.11	14.8	11.7	3.08
Meyers Leonard	25	25	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.02	4	-2	6	13.9	13.7	0.20	11.6	14.1	-2.52
Shabazz Napier	1	0	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.11	0	2	-2	6.0	13.8	-7.83	0.0	13.5	-13.53
Noah Vonleh	18	16	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	2	-2	13.8	13.8	0.02	13.3	13.6	-0.26
Mason Plumlee	67	66	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.24	-8	10	-18	15.2	11.8	3.39	14.7	12.0	2.66
Ed Davis	33	31	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	5	-8	11.8	14.5	-2.66	11.9	14.1	-2.23
Evan Turner	60	57	-0.35	0.85	-1.19	-0.05	-10	12	-22	14.2	13.2	1.00	11.7	15.3	-3.67

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jusuf Nurkic	48	49	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.02	3	-5	8	12.6	14.2	-1.66	16.2	12.0	4.24
Kenneth Faried	58	58	0.05	-0.55	0.59	0.14	-3	1	-4	14.1	13.0	1.07	11.3	16.2	-4.82
Wilson Chandler	69	68	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.03	-1	-1	0	13.3	13.9	-0.68	13.4	14.3	-0.97
Jamal Murray	25	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.03	-5	3	-8	13.0	13.7	-0.63	13.8	13.7	0.08
Jameer Nelson	34	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.01	-5	3	-8	13.4	13.6	-0.26	13.2	14.0	-0.82
Nikola Jokic	71	75	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.39	-1	-1	0	14.1	12.6	1.56	14.3	12.7	1.60
Will Barton	91	90	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.46	1	-3	4	13.7	13.0	0.68	13.6	14.3	-0.74
Emmanuel Mudiay	84	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.54	3	-5	8	13.3	14.1	-0.77	13.9	13.4	0.51
Danilo Gallinari	91	90	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.53	0	-2	2	13.4	14.0	-0.59	13.7	13.8	-0.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.41,0.4,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.46,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.72,0.79,0.92,0.94,0.89,0.99,0.99,1,0.46,0.47,0.55,0.78,0.85,0
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 145, HOU 142	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.38,0.37,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.34,0.4,0.42,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.24,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.8,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.81,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,0.5,0.62,0.71,0.89,0.95,0	89.5%
DET 126, MIL 121	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.43,0.4,0.39,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.44,0.39,0.34,0.3,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.39,0.31,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.48,0.56,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.81,0.73,0.76,0.85,0.78,0.85,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.73,0	87.6%
LAC 90, NYK 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.47,0.4,0.38,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.27,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.28,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.65,0.65,0.76,0.78,0.79,0.74,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.81,0.9,0.86,0.96,1,1,1	87.2%