NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	99		Excitement	4.7 [872]		MVP	JR Smith (CLE): +26.0%
Cleveland Cavaliers	105		Comeback	1.2 [1216]		LVP	Jeff Green (ORL): -8.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.08	0.04	16	65%	0.14	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06	0.10	0.01	0.05	12	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.03
Elfrid Payton	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	11	42%	0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
CJ Wilcox	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gordon	-0.03	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.01	7	50%	0.00	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Nikola Vucevic	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	8	61%	0.03	4	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Bismack Biyombo	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.09	0.03	-0.02	3	30%	-0.01	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05
D.J. Augustin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.03	-0.06	0.02	12	52%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09	-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	9	42%	-0.00	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JR Smith	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.09,0.22,0.22,0.26	0.26	0.11	0.17	0.01	11	67%	0.26	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.06	0.01	-0.05	16	53%	0.16	2	-0.03	11	64%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Kyrie Irving	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.02	-0.01	18	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Iman Shumpert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.03	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kay Felder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	6	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tristan Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	4	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Kevin Love	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	-0.00	-0.03	17	46%	0.01	4	-0.05	7	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.4	36.4	15.4	29.3	2.5	38.5	151.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +30.1%

ORL -1.3%

ORL -10.6%

CLE +28.0%

CLE +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	CLE	NBA	ORL	CLE	NBA
this game	14.0	15.6	14.8	102.1	107.1	107.7
season	14.6	14.9		103.0	113.5
opponent	14.7	14.9		109.6	109.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.0	12.8	16.0	13.3	14.0
CLE	17.3	14.9	14.7	15.5	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
CJ Wilcox	18	17	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.16	4	-10	14	15.4	13.6	1.74	14.6	15.8	-1.11
Bismack Biyombo	39	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.22	5	-11	16	14.9	13.4	1.51	14.0	16.6	-2.59
D.J. Augustin	42	41	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.43	11	-17	28	14.1	13.8	0.31	14.6	16.3	-1.68
Mario Hezonja	24	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-5	4	12.6	14.4	-1.79	14.1	16.0	-1.84
Nikola Vucevic	49	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	4	-14	13.9	14.0	-0.06	16.5	14.6	1.96
Serge Ibaka	62	62	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.14	-6	0	-6	13.8	14.3	-0.54	16.2	14.4	1.85
Jeff Green	58	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.39	2	-8	10	14.0	13.9	0.03	14.8	16.6	-1.80
Elfrid Payton	68	71	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.12	-9	3	-12	13.7	14.7	-0.98	16.4	13.3	3.13
Evan Fournier	75	77	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-1	-4	13.8	14.5	-0.69	15.7	15.1	0.59
Aaron Gordon	50	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	0.19	-21	15	-36	14.1	13.8	0.35	16.1	14.9	1.20

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kyrie Irving	76	76	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.17	7	-1	8	15.6	15.5	0.08	13.3	16.5	-3.26
LeBron James	80	78	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.31	1	5	-4	16.2	12.8	3.34	13.9	14.2	-0.30
Tristan Thompson	57	54	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-5	16	15.9	15.1	0.84	14.1	13.8	0.32
JR Smith	60	57	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.14	5	1	4	16.3	14.4	1.91	12.9	15.5	-2.61
Mike Dunleavy	39	40	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.39	-4	10	-14	15.6	15.5	0.05	13.8	14.1	-0.25
Richard Jefferson	48	48	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.11	4	2	2	14.0	17.1	-3.06	14.6	13.4	1.17
Kevin Love	66	67	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.31	-4	10	-14	16.2	14.2	2.09	13.4	15.2	-1.73
Iman Shumpert	36	37	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	9	-12	14.6	16.1	-1.50	15.9	12.7	3.20
Kay Felder	10	10	0.18	0.32	-0.13	-0.11	10	-4	14	15.3	15.6	-0.29	17.3	13.6	3.71
Chris Andersen	18	18	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	3	0	12.8	16.2	-3.34	15.0	13.7	1.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.62,0.59,0.57,0.63,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.84,0.83,0.89,0.93,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.78,0.97,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 104, PHX 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.8,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.85,0.87,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.89,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.94,0.96,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.93,0.89,0.79,0.91,0.98,1	95.2%
NYK 106, CLE 113	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.62,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.83,0.87,0.86,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.93,0.95,0.93,0.86,0.91,0.91,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.8,0.78,0.84,0.98,1	95.2%
DEN 103, SAS 108	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.98,0.99,1	95.1%