NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	103		Excitement	4.2 [979]		MVP	Kenneth Faried (DEN): +12.6%
San Antonio Spurs	108		Comeback	1.1 [1298]		LVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): -14.1%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kenneth Faried	0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.07	0.02	15	60%	0.17	3	-0.04	10	80%	-0.00
Aaron Brooks	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.16	0.01	0.08	18	64%	0.10	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
Anthony Randolph	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.01	0.02	9	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	0.00	0.04	9	70%	0.04	3	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Fournier	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	2	125%	0.03	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Arthur	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.03	-0.05	10	41%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Quincy Miller	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	12	39%	-0.03	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Ty Lawson	-0.14	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.03	-0.03	8	35%	-0.03	5	-0.11	4	75%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.00	0.02	9	80%	0.13	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.05	0.08	0.00	20	63%	0.20	5	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	58%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	83%	0.09	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	10	42%	0.05	3	-0.03	4	50%	0.01
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	7	41%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.01	-0.02	8	47%	0.01	1	-0.00	1	100%	-0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.10	0.03	-0.03	10	45%	0.08	5	-0.11	2	100%	0.02
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.5	26.6	15.7	22.4	2.4	36.5	130.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +47.4%

DEN -7.9%

SAS +9.3%

DEN -2.1%

SAS +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SAS	NBA	DEN	SAS	NBA
this game	11.9	16.1	15.1	99.0	105.9	105.2
season	14.0	15.0		104.5	109.8
opponent	15.0	14.9		101.1	106.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.7	13.3	11.4	9.6	11.9
SAS	14.0	18.0	16.3	16.4	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Randolph	3	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.01	-2	-3	1	4.7	12.1	-7.43	23.7	15.9	7.78
Evan Fournier	46	46	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	-0.29	8	-13	21	11.2	12.4	-1.20	17.1	15.3	1.73
Aaron Brooks	66	65	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.54	12	-17	29	11.1	13.3	-2.21	17.0	14.5	2.56
Darrell Arthur	65	64	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.55	11	-16	27	11.1	13.2	-2.15	17.0	14.7	2.33
Timofey Mozgov	65	64	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	3	-11	12.4	10.9	1.50	15.6	16.9	-1.28
Quincy Miller	47	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.16	-18	13	-31	13.2	10.8	2.38	15.3	16.8	-1.52
Kenneth Faried	75	73	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.11	-11	6	-17	12.4	10.6	1.80	15.5	17.8	-2.29
Ty Lawson	78	75	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	6	-17	12.0	11.4	0.62	15.4	18.2	-2.86
Randy Foye	75	73	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.27	-6	1	-7	12.0	11.5	0.51	16.0	16.4	-0.41

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	47	46	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	0	5	16.5	15.8	0.73	11.0	12.6	-1.59
Tony Parker	79	81	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.30	2	3	-1	15.7	17.7	-1.98	11.7	12.5	-0.82
Kawhi Leonard	75	78	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.27	3	2	1	15.8	17.1	-1.35	11.8	12.2	-0.46
Tim Duncan	76	79	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.22	4	1	3	15.8	17.2	-1.39	12.0	11.6	0.43
Danny Green	35	35	0.33	0.17	0.15	-0.09	14	-9	23	16.4	16.0	0.47	12.8	11.4	1.38
Aron Baynes	16	15	0.23	0.27	-0.03	-0.09	11	-6	17	17.9	15.8	2.16	13.6	11.6	2.00
Patty Mills	29	29	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.12	3	2	1	17.6	15.5	2.10	12.6	11.6	0.97
Manu Ginobili	54	56	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.43	-8	13	-21	15.5	16.8	-1.23	11.4	12.5	-1.07
Tiago Splitter	59	62	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.26	-7	12	-19	15.7	16.7	-0.96	12.7	10.6	2.12
Marco Belinelli	35	35	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	6	-7	16.9	15.7	1.21	11.3	12.2	-0.82
Austin Daye	5	4	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	6	-7	19.0	16.0	3.03	4.7	12.2	-7.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.62,0.6,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.79,0.82,0.84,0.79,0.82,0.87,0.86,0.92,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.95,0.91,0.9,0.92,0.83,0.89,0.89,0.98,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 99, DEN 110	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.66,0.65,0.68,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.89,1,1,1	95.9%
SAC 88, PHX 100	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.96,0.92,0.93,0.98,0.96,0.98,1,1	95.8%
UTA 89, GSW 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.57,0.65,0.64,0.72,0.74,0.73,0.73,0.77,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.83,0.82,0.9,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.9,0.96,1,1,1,1	95.7%