NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	109		Excitement	9.5 [97]		MVP	Nikola Vucevic (ORL): +45.9%
Orlando Magic	112		Comeback	2.6 [674]		LVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): -14.3%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Richardson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.00	0.11	-0.00	11	50%	0.14	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.02
Gerald Green	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.01	9	58%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,0.06	-0.01	0.08	-0.00	13	50%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	4	64%	0.04	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.06
Luol Deng	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02	0.05	-0.08	-0.05	7	71%	0.12	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	12	42%	0.01	0	0.00	7	14%	-0.12
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	67%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.01	-0.00	16	44%	0.04	4	-0.12	2	100%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	-0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0,-0.05,-0.09,-0.19,-0.11,-0.12,-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	19	40%	0.00	3	-0.15	4	75%	-0.03

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.46	0.46	0.13	0.35	0.02	20	63%	0.49	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.19,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.22	0.22	0.14	0.11	0.03	12	72%	0.33	3	-0.11	15	80%	0.02
CJ Watson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.11,0.16	0.16	0.03	0.13	0.00	5	70%	0.20	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	12	54%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.01	8	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	64%	0.08	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devyn Marble	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	12	52%	0.07	3	-0.11	7	57%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.2	2.4	28.5	15.7	24.2	2.4	41.5	136.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +52.4%

ORL +15.9%

MIA -42.5%

ORL +13.9%

ORL +10.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ORL	NBA	MIA	ORL	NBA
this game	16.3	13.1	14.9	110.1	115.5	105.1
season	15.5	14.6		104.5	103.6
opponent	14.9	15.1		105.2	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.6	16.3	16.6	16.5	16.3
ORL	14.4	11.9	13.4	12.8	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gerald Green	31	31	0.19	-0.69	0.88	0.01	6	-9	15	16.3	16.2	0.10	13.2	13.1	0.13
Justise Winslow	49	48	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.02	5	-8	13	15.1	17.3	-2.20	13.8	12.4	1.32
Hassan Whiteside	61	59	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.18	4	-7	11	15.5	17.4	-1.90	12.6	13.9	-1.26
Amar'e Stoudemire	21	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	1	-5	18.7	15.6	3.12	13.9	12.9	1.02
Udonis Haslem	16	16	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.16	-2	-1	-1	16.7	16.2	0.52	14.6	12.8	1.82
Goran Dragic	63	64	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.26	-1	-2	1	17.1	14.8	2.32	12.3	14.6	-2.28
Josh Richardson	67	66	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.53	4	-7	11	15.5	17.9	-2.44	13.6	12.1	1.43
Joe Johnson	57	54	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.35	-5	2	-7	16.6	15.8	0.81	12.3	14.2	-1.90
Dwyane Wade	65	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.32	-7	4	-11	16.3	16.2	0.03	13.1	13.1	0.03
Luol Deng	65	64	-0.72	0.22	-0.95	-0.28	-15	12	-27	16.5	15.7	0.79	13.4	12.6	0.80

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	94	96	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.34	9	-6	15	12.9	18.0	-5.05	16.3	13.7	2.67
Mario Hezonja	45	46	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.41	5	-2	7	13.4	12.9	0.51	16.6	16.0	0.62
Elfrid Payton	76	78	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.42	2	1	1	12.9	14.0	-1.14	16.1	16.7	-0.59
CJ Watson	60	61	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.41	-1	4	-5	12.4	14.2	-1.76	16.1	16.5	-0.40
Nikola Vucevic	69	72	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.17	2	1	1	13.4	12.4	1.05	16.3	16.1	0.25
Devyn Marble	10	11	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.09	4	-1	5	11.8	13.3	-1.45	16.6	16.2	0.43
Jason Smith	27	26	0.12	0.38	-0.27	0.09	1	2	-1	12.8	13.2	-0.45	16.6	16.1	0.49
Victor Oladipo	56	57	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.10	0	3	-3	13.6	12.5	1.07	16.0	16.6	-0.68
Ersan Ilyasova	48	48	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.01	-7	10	-17	13.9	12.3	1.53	16.1	16.4	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.5,0.46,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.37,0.42,0.55,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.65,0.63,0.63,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.69,0.53,0.72,0.75,0.84,0.68,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 101, CLE 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.3,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.59,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.52,0.56,0.5,0.38,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.64,0.71,0.82,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.83,1	92.7%
ORL 98, LAL 105	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.4,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.38,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.55,0.71,0.67,0.98,1	92.2%
IND 90, CHI 96	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.36,0.39,0.46,0.43,0.42,0.43,0.58,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.96,1	91.8%