NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	108		Excitement	8.6 [187]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +27.4%
Orlando Magic	104		Comeback	3.7 [196]		LVP	Marcus Morris (DET): -20.9%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.15	0.00	10	78%	0.29	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Reggie Jackson	0.24	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.05,0.13,0.16,0.11,0.24	0.00	0.25	0.01	18	51%	0.32	3	-0.08	11	82%	0.09
Reggie Bullock	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.10	0.07	-0.00	9	72%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.06	0.05	-0.00	5	75%	0.12	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Tobias Harris	0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.02	0.05	-0.01	11	54%	0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	5	46%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.05
Steve Blake	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andre Drummond	-0.13	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.05	-0.01	14	38%	-0.09	2	-0.04	6	50%	-0.09
Marcus Morris	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	11	35%	-0.09	3	-0.12	4	50%	-0.02

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.07	-0.00	7	87%	0.20	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	-0.01	13	48%	0.17	2	-0.10	7	71%	0.01
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,0.06	0.06	-0.01	0.08	0.01	15	54%	0.21	4	-0.15	5	100%	0.06
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.05	0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	13	63%	0.12	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.02	0.05	0.00	8	37%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dewayne Dedmon	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	14	50%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.05
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	10	27%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.9	1.8	26.3	15.5	26.4	2.5	37.5	130.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +32.1%

ORL -6.7%

DET +9.9%

DET +12.7%

DET +2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	ORL	NBA	DET	ORL	NBA
this game	15.5	13.9	14.9	111.3	105.1	105.1
season	15.0	14.6		104.9	103.6
opponent	14.9	15.1		105.2	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.2	14.0	15.0	15.8	15.5
ORL	14.1	15.3	13.2	13.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tobias Harris	62	64	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.41	10	-6	16	15.4	15.7	-0.39	13.5	14.7	-1.25
Reggie Bullock	53	56	0.55	-0.05	0.61	0.35	7	-3	10	15.8	15.1	0.78	13.8	14.1	-0.28
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	74	75	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.43	3	1	2	15.3	16.1	-0.78	13.6	15.0	-1.44
Reggie Jackson	65	66	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	2	0	15.4	15.8	-0.43	13.5	14.6	-1.09
Andre Drummond	66	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.32	0	4	-4	15.9	14.6	1.34	14.3	13.2	1.07
Aron Baynes	30	31	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	0	4	15.1	15.7	-0.62	13.6	14.1	-0.48
Steve Blake	32	33	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.01	2	2	0	15.8	15.4	0.43	14.6	13.5	1.09
Marcus Morris	68	68	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.00	-2	6	-8	15.2	16.2	-1.02	14.2	13.3	0.95
Anthony Tolliver	35	35	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	-0.03	-6	10	-16	15.7	15.4	0.39	14.7	13.5	1.25

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Smith	32	32	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.02	14	-18	32	13.6	14.0	-0.42	15.7	15.4	0.38
Andrew Nicholson	43	41	0.24	-0.74	0.98	0.03	7	-11	18	14.3	13.6	0.74	15.1	15.8	-0.73
Mario Hezonja	41	40	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.03	5	-9	14	13.8	14.0	-0.14	16.3	14.9	1.46
Brandon Jennings	32	31	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	0.01	-1	-3	2	14.4	13.7	0.69	15.8	15.3	0.51
Dewayne Dedmon	9	9	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.12	-9	5	-14	15.8	13.7	2.06	18.2	15.2	3.01
Aaron Gordon	66	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.45	1	-5	6	13.6	14.6	-1.05	15.4	15.7	-0.27
Victor Oladipo	80	79	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.39	-2	-2	0	13.8	14.5	-0.70	15.8	14.1	1.77
Elfrid Payton	66	66	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.45	-6	2	-8	13.9	14.0	-0.09	15.3	15.8	-0.51
Nikola Vucevic	58	56	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.52	-9	5	-14	13.8	14.1	-0.32	14.9	16.3	-1.38
Evan Fournier	68	65	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.25	-20	16	-36	14.0	13.7	0.29	14.9	16.7	-1.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.45,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.66,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.48,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.79,0.67,0.58,0.74,0.7,0.6,0.69,0.29,0.14,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 96, BOS 91	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.46,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.45,0.24,0.02,0	92.3%
PHX 108, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.45,0.59,0.6,0.56,0.5,0.62,0.57,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.71,0.54,0.45,0.28,0.1,0.03,0	91.9%
GSW 106, TOR 100	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.35,0.34,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.3,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.65,0.62,0.56,0.63,0.67,0.65,0.81,0.78,0.71,0.75,0.68,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.53,0.22,0.03,0,0	91.3%