NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	103		Excitement	7.7 [324]		MVP	Nikola Mirotic (CHI): +34.2%
Houston Rockets	100		Comeback	11.4 [51]		LVP	Pau Gasol (CHI): -31.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Mirotic	0.34	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.12,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.32,0.32,0.34	0.23	0.12	0.01	14	78%	0.38	1	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Justin Holiday	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.08	0.06	0.00	2	100%	0.14	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Jimmy Butler	0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.06	0.01	13	70%	0.21	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.02
Cristiano Felicio	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	50%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
E'Twaun Moore	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug McDermott	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	14	50%	-0.01	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.22,-0.22,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31,-0.31	-0.13	-0.17	0.01	14	43%	-0.05	6	-0.26	0	0%	0.00

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Patrick Beverley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.20	-0.01	0.00	13	81%	0.18	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Clint Capela	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0,-0.03,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.06,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	18	48%	0.04	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.02,-0.04	-0.04	0.07	-0.07	0.04	10	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.01
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	4	37%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	7	14%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	7	0%	-0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	0.00	-0.13	0.00	4	70%	-0.01	2	-0.13	2	50%	-0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.25,-0.25,-0.21	-0.21	-0.03	-0.18	0.00	20	50%	-0.10	4	-0.10	8	75%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	3.5	29.3	17.4	24.6	3.4	42.4	147.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +77.8%

CHI +1.1%

HOU -1.3%

HOU -20.8%

HOU -6.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	HOU	NBA	CHI	HOU	NBA
this game	15.2	14.9	14.9	108.4	104.2	105.1
season	14.8	14.0		103.7	105.9
opponent	15.1	14.9		106.9	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	15.0	16.3	14.8	15.2
HOU	13.2	15.7	15.7	15.2	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	74	76	1.13	-0.63	1.77	0.37	26	-23	49	14.3	18.4	-4.10	15.3	13.5	1.80
Nikola Mirotic	76	77	0.96	-0.46	1.42	0.31	22	-19	41	14.4	18.6	-4.25	15.1	14.4	0.70
E'Twaun Moore	44	47	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.36	9	-6	15	13.9	16.4	-2.55	15.3	14.6	0.77
Jimmy Butler	77	78	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.31	3	0	3	15.2	15.2	0.01	14.6	16.3	-1.66
Cristiano Felicio	28	31	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.11	6	-3	9	14.9	15.4	-0.53	16.0	14.4	1.63
Justin Holiday	21	21	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.16	3	0	3	14.8	15.4	-0.60	14.3	15.1	-0.76
Pau Gasol	62	59	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.15	1	2	-1	16.2	13.4	2.82	15.2	14.5	0.63
Derrick Rose	24	23	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	4	-5	15.7	15.1	0.64	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Mike Dunleavy	18	18	-0.40	0.90	-1.31	0.12	-18	21	-39	17.9	14.6	3.28	13.1	15.3	-2.24
Bobby Portis	19	19	-0.46	0.96	-1.42	0.10	-19	22	-41	18.6	14.4	4.25	14.4	15.1	-0.70
Aaron Brooks	32	31	-0.49	0.99	-1.47	0.01	-17	20	-37	16.1	14.8	1.30	14.5	15.1	-0.65

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	23	24	0.55	-1.05	1.59	-0.13	23	-26	49	14.4	15.1	-0.65	18.0	14.3	3.76
Dwight Howard	57	55	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.38	14	-17	31	15.3	14.4	0.87	16.2	13.9	2.21
Patrick Beverley	75	74	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.49	13	-16	29	14.4	16.7	-2.23	15.2	15.3	-0.07
Jason Terry	40	39	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	4	-11	15.0	14.9	0.08	13.4	16.5	-3.18
Trevor Ariza	71	72	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.37	2	-5	7	14.3	16.8	-2.59	15.3	14.9	0.42
Corey Brewer	32	30	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	-12	9	-21	17.2	13.8	3.48	15.2	15.2	-0.05
Clint Capela	33	34	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.12	-21	18	-39	15.8	14.5	1.31	15.4	15.2	0.19
James Harden	84	84	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.40	-8	5	-13	14.8	15.7	-0.94	15.3	14.9	0.36
Michael Beasley	65	63	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.31	-19	16	-35	14.6	15.5	-0.92	14.3	17.1	-2.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.58,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.59,0.54,0.4,0.55,0.63,0.23,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 94, DEN 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.67,0.74,0.78,0.89,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.81,0.78,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.36,0.06,0,0	91.3%
BOS 105, POR 100	0.5,0.51,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.7,0.76,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.87,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.81,0.75,0.67,0.58,0.64,0.45,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.33,0.17,0	91.2%
NOH 76, HOU 73	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.63,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.81,0.84,0.88,0.86,0.74,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.37,0.1,0,0	90.9%