NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	104		Excitement	9.5 [98]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +37.1%
Toronto Raptors	112		Comeback	2.1 [720]		LVP	Goran Dragic (MIA): -35.5%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.19	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.2,0.2,0.19	-0.01	0.19	-0.02	18	49%	0.25	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.01	21	64%	0.24	4	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Justise Winslow	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	9	50%	0.07	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.02
Hassan Whiteside	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.01	0.04	-0.02	12	46%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.01
Amar'e Stoudemire	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	4	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Gerald Green	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.04	0.04	-0.00	9	32%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	100%	0.04
Josh Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.03	0.00	7	47%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Goran Dragic	-0.35	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.09,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23,-0.16,-0.22,-0.32,-0.32,-0.35,-0.35	-0.13	-0.22	0.01	18	34%	-0.16	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.04

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.38,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.09	0.28	-0.00	26	57%	0.46	3	-0.09	15	80%	0.13
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.09	0.02	11	71%	0.21	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.03
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.04	0.14	-0.00	8	56%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	58%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	7	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.00	0.01	16	42%	0.04	4	-0.15	6	100%	0.07
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.05	0.01	7	33%	-0.08	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.3	1.8	29.2	15.4	25.3	1.5	40.7	1.8	18.0	156.1
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +33.9%

TOR +16.8%

MIA -0.3%

TOR +4.2%

MIA -4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	TOR	NBA	MIA	TOR	NBA
this game	14.9	15.3	14.9	98.1	106.7	105.1
season	15.5	16.1		104.5	107.2
opponent	14.8	15.1		104.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	17.0	14.6	12.6	15.5	15.1	14.9
TOR	15.0	15.4	16.2	15.8	12.2	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justise Winslow	76	76	0.20	-0.70	0.91	0.17	1	-9	10	13.8	17.5	-3.66	15.8	14.0	1.80
Josh Richardson	47	46	0.16	-0.66	0.83	0.25	-3	-5	2	16.5	13.6	2.97	17.1	13.9	3.20
Amar'e Stoudemire	41	40	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.02	-1	-7	6	14.1	15.4	-1.31	15.7	15.0	0.74
Gerald Green	40	37	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-8	8	17.1	13.5	3.53	16.7	14.5	2.26
Joe Johnson	88	89	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.17	-6	-2	-4	14.1	18.9	-4.83	15.6	13.6	2.01
Luol Deng	78	78	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.26	-5	-3	-2	14.7	15.4	-0.70	13.8	19.5	-5.72
Goran Dragic	85	85	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	-0.30	-9	1	-10	14.7	15.4	-0.69	14.4	18.9	-4.55
Hassan Whiteside	64	63	-0.87	0.37	-1.24	-0.60	-9	1	-10	15.5	13.9	1.65	15.3	15.2	0.09

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick Patterson	70	71	0.65	-0.15	0.79	0.23	14	-6	20	15.7	14.4	1.30	15.4	13.8	1.65
Kyle Lowry	90	90	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.26	9	-1	10	15.0	16.9	-1.87	15.0	14.2	0.74
Cory Joseph	58	59	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	2	4	15.3	15.3	-0.02	15.1	14.6	0.58
Bismack Biyombo	38	41	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.21	3	5	-2	14.2	15.9	-1.70	16.4	13.9	2.55
Jonas Valanciunas	67	65	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.13	5	3	2	15.9	14.2	1.70	13.9	16.4	-2.55
DeMar DeRozan	86	87	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.14	4	4	0	15.5	14.4	1.03	14.3	17.3	-2.97
Terrence Ross	34	37	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.04	5	3	2	16.1	14.9	1.17	17.3	13.6	3.68
James Johnson	47	45	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.09	-1	9	-10	14.9	15.6	-0.71	13.4	16.0	-2.61
Luis Scola	35	35	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	-0.08	-5	13	-18	14.4	15.7	-1.30	13.8	15.4	-1.65

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.64,0.73,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.74,0.71,0.73,0.86,0.78,0.85,0.84,0.46,0.45,0.71,0.9,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 101, ORL 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.55,0.58,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.54,0.59,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.49,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.53,0.53,0.76,0.86,0.86,0.72,0.61,0.63,0.76,0.72,0.54,0.69,0.63,0.84,0.99,1	90.6%
PHI 95, NOH 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.62,0.65,0.71,0.74,0.72,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.65,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.7,0.8,0.74,0.69,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.69,0.71,0.85,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.85,0.99,1	89.5%
LAC 109, SAC 116	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.61,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.84,0.72,0.7,0.6,0.46,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.63,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.62,0.77,0.69,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.79,0.91,0.99,1	89.4%