NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	98		Excitement	8.3 [218]		MVP	Marvin Williams (CHA): +49.5%
Charlotte Hornets	95		Comeback	6.7 [146]		LVP	Spencer Hawes (CHA): -17.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0.39	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.39	0.05	0.35	0.01	20	47%	0.39	0	0.00	3	67%	0.03
Justise Winslow	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.13	0.05	0.08	0.00	6	67%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.06	0.01	10	55%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.01	8	53%	0.15	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	44%	-0.03	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,0.03,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.07	-0.01	20	55%	0.03	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.06	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	8	42%	-0.02	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.02
Gerald Green	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	30%	-0.07	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.39,0.5,0.5	0.50	0.22	0.28	0.01	17	77%	0.50	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.01	12	78%	0.23	4	-0.11	3	100%	0.02
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.05	-0.04	0.01	7	60%	0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
PJ Hairston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,-0.04	-0.04	0.03	-0.05	0.01	18	53%	0.12	2	-0.16	2	100%	0.02
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	7	35%	-0.00	1	-0.04	3	67%	-0.00
Jeremy Lin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	6	35%	-0.05	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Frank Kaminsky	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18	-0.18	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	5	20%	-0.08	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.3	27.6	18.3	21.9	1.8	36.2	134.3
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA -15.2%

MIA +15.3%

MIA +25.9%

MIA +22.9%

MIA +1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	15.3	14.6	14.9	101.0	99.0	105.1
season	15.5	15.1		104.5	105.5
opponent	14.8	15.1		103.6	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.0	15.2	18.1	14.2	15.3
CHA	14.2	13.0	15.3	15.8	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	71	71	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.41	11	-8	19	15.3	15.2	0.13	14.0	16.0	-1.96
Luol Deng	56	56	0.67	-0.17	0.83	0.73	-2	5	-7	15.6	14.8	0.84	14.6	14.5	0.09
Goran Dragic	63	64	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.26	7	-4	11	15.7	14.6	1.08	15.1	13.4	1.77
Gerald Green	49	50	0.46	0.04	0.41	-0.07	18	-15	33	14.2	16.4	-2.15	14.1	15.1	-0.99
Dwyane Wade	59	58	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.52	-7	10	-17	15.7	14.6	1.08	14.6	14.5	0.13
Justise Winslow	68	67	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.42	-5	8	-13	15.0	15.9	-0.87	14.4	14.8	-0.35
Hassan Whiteside	56	55	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.22	8	-5	13	14.5	16.4	-1.87	14.9	14.1	0.71
Beno Udrih	32	28	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.03	-5	8	-13	15.4	15.2	0.13	14.4	14.6	-0.22
Amar'e Stoudemire	31	31	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	0.05	-10	13	-23	16.6	14.7	1.90	14.9	14.4	0.57

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Zeller	47	49	0.25	-0.75	1.00	-0.16	14	-17	31	14.7	14.4	0.25	17.2	13.3	3.95
PJ Hairston	28	29	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.03	0	-3	3	13.1	15.1	-1.99	14.7	15.5	-0.85
Frank Kaminsky	31	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	3	-9	14.2	14.7	-0.58	14.3	15.8	-1.58
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	59	58	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.17	3	-6	9	15.2	13.5	1.73	16.0	14.2	1.81
Nicolas Batum	77	78	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.36	5	-8	13	14.6	14.4	0.16	15.4	14.8	0.62
Jeremy Lamb	19	19	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.06	-8	5	-13	14.4	14.6	-0.16	14.8	15.4	-0.62
Kemba Walker	70	70	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.47	5	-8	13	14.8	14.0	0.81	16.1	13.3	2.76
Marvin Williams	65	63	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.52	3	-6	9	14.7	14.2	0.58	15.8	14.3	1.58
Jeremy Lin	35	37	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.21	-14	11	-25	14.1	14.8	-0.69	13.2	16.6	-3.44
Spencer Hawes	49	48	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.25	-17	14	-31	14.4	14.7	-0.25	13.3	17.2	-3.95

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.5,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.84,0.66,0.52,0.37,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.22,0.68,0.74,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 90, SAC 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.59,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.45,0.55,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.75,0.82,0.78,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.42,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.45,0.78,0.72,0	90.4%
CHI 102, CHA 99	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.61,0.66,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.54,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.52,0.54,0.72,0.62,0.63,0.77,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.62,0.72,0.73,0.59,0.34,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.67,0.58,0	90.4%
MIA 79, ORL 76	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.58,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.71,0.53,0.69,0.65,0.67,0.55,0.37,0.67,0.9,0	89.8%