NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	107		Excitement	7.2 [416]		MVP	Darren Collison (SAC): +15.2%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	1.2 [590]		LVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): -28.0%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Doug McDermott	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.04	-0.01	10	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Snell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	75%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.01	9	57%	0.11	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04	0.13	-0.04	0.05	16	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.04
Aaron Brooks	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.04	0.03	-0.04	6	25%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07	-0.09	0.01	-0.02	15	52%	0.10	7	-0.16	10	90%	0.03
Pau Gasol	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2	-0.10	-0.08	0.02	16	47%	-0.03	6	-0.16	2	100%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.01	0.01	11	73%	0.15	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Omri Casspi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.03	-0.00	7	71%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	4	62%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Willie Cauley-Stein	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.02	14	60%	0.06	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.02
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	13	43%	-0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.12	-0.06	0.01	9	33%	-0.07	4	-0.12	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.28	-0.28	-0.07	-0.18	0.02	25	49%	-0.09	6	-0.19	11	55%	-0.12

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.5	2.5	25.3	15.4	26.9	1.7	41.5	135.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +30.1%

CHI +6.5%

CHI +4.8%

CHI +10.2%

SAC -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	SAC	NBA	CHI	SAC	NBA
this game	13.9	13.9	14.9	102.9	99.0	105.1
season	14.8	13.9		103.7	104.8
opponent	14.6	14.9		107.1	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	12.3	14.2	14.5	14.7	13.9
SAC	14.9	14.6	13.8	12.4	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	72	74	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.36	3	2	1	14.2	13.4	0.81	14.0	13.5	0.52
Pau Gasol	82	79	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.14	10	-5	15	13.5	15.7	-2.22	14.0	13.7	0.30
Derrick Rose	80	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.18	7	-2	9	13.2	16.3	-3.12	13.9	13.8	0.06
E'Twaun Moore	83	82	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.16	7	-2	9	13.5	15.7	-2.23	13.7	14.8	-1.09
Tony Snell	49	48	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	-4	13	12.3	15.4	-3.11	14.6	13.3	1.37
Kirk Hinrich	39	41	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	10	-15	14.9	13.4	1.50	13.0	14.5	-1.48
Doug McDermott	54	52	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	5	-5	14.4	13.5	0.87	13.8	13.9	-0.10
Aaron Brooks	20	21	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.19	-2	7	-9	16.5	13.3	3.24	14.7	13.7	0.97
Bobby Portis	42	42	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.22	-4	9	-13	15.6	12.8	2.83	13.4	14.2	-0.86

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ben McLemore	37	37	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.09	3	-8	11	13.2	14.3	-1.01	15.5	13.1	2.37
Kosta Koufos	31	32	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-2	-1	12.6	14.4	-1.79	14.4	13.7	0.73
Willie Cauley-Stein	36	36	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.08	-12	7	-19	17.2	12.1	5.12	12.6	14.6	-2.02
Marco Belinelli	78	78	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-5	5	14.0	13.7	0.28	13.4	15.4	-1.94
Omri Casspi	49	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	2	-9	13.4	14.3	-0.93	14.8	13.1	1.79
Rajon Rondo	69	68	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.14	-7	2	-9	13.8	14.1	-0.29	13.1	15.5	-2.40
Rudy Gay	70	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.36	-1	-4	3	13.8	14.1	-0.34	13.9	14.0	-0.14
DeMarcus Cousins	83	85	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	13.9	13.7	0.24	13.6	15.5	-1.95
Darren Collison	62	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-6	7	13.4	14.6	-1.15	14.7	12.8	1.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 91, ORL 84	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.3,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.26,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.01,0	93.7%
SAC 99, NOP 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.28,0.33,0.29,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.26,0.32,0.42,0.37,0.3,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.42,0.49,0.5,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.36,0.32,0.29,0.25,0.37,0.26,0.21,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.14,0.19,0.13,0.15,0.07,0,0,0,0,0	93.6%
CHI 102, DAL 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.4,0.39,0.37,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.26,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0	93.6%