NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	91		Excitement	6.1 [601]		MVP	Andrea Bargnani (TOR): +18.0%
Orlando Magic	84		Comeback	1.1 [259]		LVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): -14.9%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrea Bargnani	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18	0.05	0.11	-0.02	16	68%	0.36	5	-0.18	2	100%	0.01
Joey Graham	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.04	0.01	2	100%	0.15	1	-0.02	7	100%	0.04
Morris Peterson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	8	55%	0.04	0	0.00	6	83%	0.03
Rasho Nesterovic	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Fred Jones	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
T.J. Ford	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.01	8	67%	0.12	5	-0.12	5	80%	0.00
Kris Humphries	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Parker	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.02	-0.04	0.03	9	55%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Jorge Garbajosa	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darko Milicic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	-0.01	6	57%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	7	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tony Battie	0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	9	55%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Carlos Arroyo	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.05	-0.08	0.02	17	58%	0.04	2	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Grant Hill	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	4	33%	0.01	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09	-0.09	-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	11	27%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	11	38%	-0.05	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.07	-0.03	0.05	17	40%	-0.10	2	-0.05	8	62%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	30.2	17.0	25.3	2.6	34.0	134.9
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +63.9%

TOR +10.3%

ORL -24.0%

TOR +0.3%

ORL -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	15.9	16.8	15.4	103.4	95.5	104.5
season	15.2	15.9		104.7	103.4
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.0	104.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	14.3	18.4	15.7	15.6	15.9
ORL	18.4	17.6	15.6	15.7	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasho Nesterovic	74	74	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.23	16	-9	25	15.4	18.6	-3.22	16.6	17.6	-1.01
T.J. Ford	50	51	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.08	13	-6	19	14.9	17.3	-2.48	16.1	17.7	-1.61
Anthony Parker	60	61	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.13	11	-4	15	15.6	16.6	-1.04	15.5	19.7	-4.25
Andrea Bargnani	53	53	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.18	5	2	3	17.1	14.2	2.83	17.0	16.5	0.42
Joey Graham	31	31	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.03	9	-2	11	14.2	16.9	-2.68	16.8	16.8	0.02
Jorge Garbajosa	53	55	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.06	8	-1	9	15.9	16.0	-0.16	16.7	16.9	-0.13
Morris Peterson	50	49	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.31	-6	13	-19	16.9	14.7	2.24	16.8	16.8	0.05
Jose Calderon	40	39	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.31	-9	16	-25	16.6	15.4	1.22	17.4	16.3	1.01
Fred Jones	19	18	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	12	-17	16.6	15.8	0.83	21.3	15.6	5.70
Kris Humphries	10	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.10	-7	14	-21	18.1	15.7	2.45	18.4	16.6	1.84

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Redick	30	31	0.13	-0.63	0.77	-0.28	14	-21	35	14.1	18.2	-4.04	16.5	15.6	0.80
Darko Milicic	46	46	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.27	8	-15	23	17.1	16.5	0.57	17.8	13.9	3.88
Tony Battie	57	57	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.11	-2	-5	3	16.7	17.0	-0.32	15.7	16.3	-0.60
Travis Diener	34	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.27	2	-9	11	18.7	15.6	3.16	16.0	15.9	0.12
Grant Hill	36	35	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	0.02	-9	2	-11	16.1	17.3	-1.25	15.0	16.6	-1.59
Keyon Dooling	58	58	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.35	2	-9	11	16.7	16.9	-0.21	16.7	14.4	2.32
Carlos Arroyo	56	54	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	1	-9	15.4	19.2	-3.86	15.1	17.2	-2.12
Trevor Ariza	58	57	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.03	-22	15	-37	18.3	13.9	4.39	15.5	16.6	-1.10
Dwight Howard	65	65	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.13	-20	13	-33	17.3	15.5	1.78	15.4	17.6	-2.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.36,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.32,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.41,0.41,0.5,0.42,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.27,0.26,0.32,0.27,0.34,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.3,0.17,0.09,0.14,0.19,0.26,0.14,0.07,0.09,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 107, MIL 98	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.29,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.36,0.38,0.26,0.31,0.38,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.17,0.24,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.02,0,0	94.1%
CHI 107, SAC 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.3,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.26,0.28,0.32,0.35,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.28,0.3,0.3,0.46,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.34,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.07,0.04,0.06,0.04,0	93.7%
MIA 92, WAS 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.27,0.35,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.32,0.42,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.5,0.46,0.37,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.35,0.3,0.31,0.19,0.36,0.34,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.29,0.17,0.35,0.27,0.15,0.07,0.03,0,0	93.3%