NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	105		Excitement	8.4 [209]		MVP	Brook Lopez (BKN): +40.5%
Brooklyn Nets	100		Comeback	3.0 [545]		LVP	Joe Johnson (BKN): -16.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Drummond	0.19	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.19,0.19	0.08	0.12	0.00	15	64%	0.25	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.06
Reggie Jackson	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,0.03,0.03,0.19	0.01	0.15	-0.03	20	47%	0.21	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	55%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Stanley Johnson	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.04	0.01	11	59%	0.14	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	0.00	4	37%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darrun Hilliard	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Tolliver	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	3	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	-0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.04	0.01	18	43%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Morris	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.01	-0.05	-0.00	11	46%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Aron Baynes	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	22%	-0.01	2	-0.07	1	0%	-0.04

Brooklyn Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brook Lopez	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.4,0.4,0.4	0.40	0.18	0.23	0.01	19	69%	0.40	0	0.00	1	100%	0.02
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.10	0.11	-0.01	12	64%	0.22	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Markel Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	3	90%	0.12	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Bojan Bogdanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	9	44%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.09	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.05	-0.01	7	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.09,-0.11	-0.11	0.03	-0.11	0.03	11	50%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donald Sloan	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.01	-0.14	0.00	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Joe Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.15	-0.07	-0.06	8	17%	-0.04	3	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	1.7	27.2	14.7	24.2	2.4	31.2	123.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +0.2%

BKN -11.7%

DET +39.6%

DET +20.0%

DET +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	BKN	NBA	DET	BKN	NBA
this game	16.4	15.4	14.9	116.7	109.9	105.1
season	15.0	15.0		104.9	101.9
opponent	14.8	15.1		109.3	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.5	17.1	14.9	18.4	16.4
BKN	16.5	14.9	15.8	14.3	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	59	60	0.90	-0.40	1.31	0.44	16	-11	27	16.1	17.0	-0.90	15.7	14.8	0.93
Marcus Morris	59	60	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.28	16	-11	27	16.9	15.5	1.47	15.4	15.3	0.19
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	72	73	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.28	13	-8	21	16.3	17.0	-0.69	15.3	15.6	-0.21
Andre Drummond	71	71	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.27	11	-6	17	16.0	18.2	-2.17	15.3	15.8	-0.60
Reggie Jackson	57	59	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.30	6	-1	7	16.7	16.0	0.65	15.5	15.1	0.45
Brandon Jennings	33	32	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	6	-7	16.0	16.7	-0.65	15.1	15.5	-0.45
Aron Baynes	19	20	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.08	-6	11	-17	18.2	16.0	2.17	15.8	15.3	0.60
Darrun Hilliard	9	10	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.06	-6	11	-17	14.0	16.7	-2.72	17.1	15.2	1.93
Stanley Johnson	41	40	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.09	-12	17	-29	16.1	16.7	-0.55	14.7	15.9	-1.27
Anthony Tolliver	30	30	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	-0.08	-12	17	-29	17.5	15.9	1.63	15.1	15.5	-0.42

Brooklyn Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Larkin	43	42	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.08	8	-13	21	13.7	16.9	-3.11	17.6	15.4	2.20
Markel Brown	35	34	0.13	-0.63	0.75	-0.08	7	-12	19	15.2	15.5	-0.35	17.5	15.8	1.70
Thomas Robinson	19	18	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.02	2	-7	9	16.2	15.2	1.04	18.3	16.0	2.36
Andrea Bargnani	47	45	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.28	6	-11	17	15.2	15.6	-0.40	17.1	15.8	1.24
Bojan Bogdanovic	47	46	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-3	1	14.6	16.2	-1.59	17.1	15.7	1.40
Thaddeus Young	46	47	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.11	-9	4	-13	15.5	15.2	0.32	16.0	16.9	-0.93
Wayne Ellington	53	53	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.14	-10	5	-15	15.8	14.9	0.89	15.7	17.5	-1.82
Joe Johnson	48	48	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.29	-6	1	-7	15.7	15.1	0.60	15.6	17.5	-1.89
Brook Lopez	69	69	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.30	-8	3	-11	15.3	15.5	-0.21	16.1	17.7	-1.66
Donald Sloan	48	48	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.28	-13	8	-21	16.9	13.7	3.11	15.4	17.6	-2.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.41,0.51,0.43,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.58,0.47,0.45,0.31,0.17,0.26,0.25,0.38,0.18,0.34,0.43,0.37,0.53,0.35,0.22,0.31,0.46,0.57,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.28,0	91.7%
DAL 120, GSW 115	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.17,0	91.2%
SAS 102, IND 98	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.32,0.53,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.31,0.43,0.27,0	90.9%