NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	120		Excitement	9.0 [116]		MVP	Baron Davis (GSW): +36.6%
Golden State Warriors	115		Comeback	2.5 [701]		LVP	Monta Ellis (GSW): -20.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.22,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.25,0.36,0.36	0.17	0.19	-0.00	17	71%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.23	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.26,0.23	0.03	0.22	0.02	15	55%	0.27	2	-0.04	10	80%	0.03
Jerry Stackhouse	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.18	0.03	0.15	0.00	12	54%	0.20	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Howard	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.11	0.02	0.01	17	63%	0.13	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Devin Harris	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.03	0.01	0.02	12	66%	0.17	4	-0.16	8	100%	0.05
Jose Juan Barea	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Trenton Hassell	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09	-0.03	-0.07	-0.00	7	56%	-0.01	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Baron Davis	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.28,0.36,0.37	0.37	0.16	0.21	0.00	26	61%	0.42	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.03
Kelenna Azubuike	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23	0.23	0.09	0.13	-0.01	20	55%	0.25	1	-0.02	9	56%	-0.01
Al Harrington	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.22,0.29,0.29,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.12	0.08	0.02	14	71%	0.22	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	70%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stephane Lasme	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick O'Bryant	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.00	-0.09	-0.01	6	56%	-0.08	1	-0.01	4	25%	-0.15
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.16,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.07	0.02	15	32%	-0.17	1	-0.04	8	50%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.7	3.0	36.2	19.6	30.8	3.5	39.4	161.2
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +15.1%

DAL +27.5%

DAL +20.4%

GSW -20.0%

DAL +7.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	GSW	NBA	DAL	GSW	NBA
this game	15.6	13.3	15.4	121.2	115.0	105.7
season	16.1	13.5		108.9	109.8
opponent	15.1	15.4		107.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.1	13.0	16.1	17.8	15.6
GSW	13.3	14.2	12.7	13.0	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	80	82	0.72	-0.22	0.93	0.33	13	-8	21	16.0	14.2	1.78	12.9	15.1	-2.13
Devin Harris	74	77	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.26	12	-7	19	15.5	16.1	-0.58	13.1	14.1	-1.07
Jason Terry	76	74	0.59	-0.09	0.67	0.41	6	-1	7	15.3	16.9	-1.65	13.7	12.3	1.35
Jerry Stackhouse	62	63	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.43	-1	6	-7	16.5	14.3	2.20	12.9	14.1	-1.18
Brandon Bass	65	64	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.24	4	1	3	16.3	14.4	1.84	13.7	12.7	0.96
DeSagana Diop	33	35	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.11	-1	6	-7	14.9	16.0	-1.15	13.0	13.5	-0.48
Jose Juan Barea	11	11	-0.00	0.50	-0.51	-0.00	0	5	-5	15.1	15.7	-0.63	13.5	13.3	0.26
Trenton Hassell	27	29	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	10	-15	16.2	15.4	0.74	13.0	13.4	-0.44
Josh Howard	67	65	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	-0.07	-3	8	-11	14.7	17.6	-2.88	14.0	12.0	2.06

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Patrick O'Bryant	2	2	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.06	5	-10	15	17.0	13.2	3.77	13.0	15.7	-2.70
Matt Barnes	36	36	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.08	5	-10	15	12.2	13.9	-1.70	14.5	16.3	-1.85
Stephane Lasme	0	1	0.01	-0.51	0.53	0.01	0	-5	5	0.0	13.3	-13.31	3.0	15.8	-12.78
Marco Belinelli	16	18	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	13.6	13.3	0.30	13.6	16.1	-2.56
Monta Ellis	100	98	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-2	-1	13.3	0.0	13.31	15.8	0.0	15.81
Al Harrington	68	69	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.34	-5	0	-5	13.4	13.1	0.36	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Baron Davis	100	98	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.37	-5	0	-5	13.3	0.0	13.31	15.8	3.0	12.78
Kelenna Azubuike	89	87	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.31	-8	3	-11	13.6	11.4	2.19	16.0	13.0	3.01
Andris Biedrins	89	86	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.28	-13	8	-21	13.3	13.5	-0.16	16.2	12.2	3.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.5,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.37,0.3,0.28,0.3,0.38,0.29,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.46,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.17,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 91, NYK 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.38,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.47,0.53,0.39,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.28,0	92.6%
WAS 97, PHX 96	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.5,0.54,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.34,0.48,0.47,0.38,0.32,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.38,0.28,0.43,0.28,0	92.4%
MIN 89, UTA 81	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.66,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.48,0.3,0.26,0.37,0.29,0.37,0.26,0.31,0.34,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.05,0	92.2%