NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	106		Excitement	8.9 [157]		MVP	Cory Joseph (TOR): +17.8%
Orlando Magic	103		Comeback	1.5 [724]		LVP	Kyle Lowry (TOR): -19.5%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Cory Joseph	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.08	0.07	-0.02	11	79%	0.23	3	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02
Patrick Patterson	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	7	79%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.03	-0.00	8	69%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bismack Biyombo	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	4	79%	0.13	1	-0.04	6	83%	-0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.03	0.01	11	52%	0.07	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.04
Norman Powell	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	6	17%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19	-0.16	-0.03	0.00	19	30%	-0.15	2	-0.04	6	83%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.19	-0.04	-0.13	0.02	20	44%	-0.11	2	-0.09	14	86%	0.05

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.13	-0.04	0.01	11	84%	0.21	3	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Victor Oladipo	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.03	0.03	0.10	-0.05	0.01	20	64%	0.22	3	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Aaron Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Channing Frye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Nicholson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.00	13	62%	0.10	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Mario Hezonja	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	0.05	-0.13	0.01	15	53%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	22	38%	-0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Elfrid Payton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	8	25%	-0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.2	1.8	25.5	16.0	24.1	2.4	35.0	2.4	18.5	152.9
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +7.3%

TOR +10.0%

TOR +3.9%

TOR +29.5%

ORL -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	ORL	NBA	TOR	ORL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.2	14.9	101.9	97.2	105.1
season	16.1	14.6		107.2	103.6
opponent	14.9	14.8		105.2	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
TOR	13.5	16.2	16.5	18.2	17.3	16.1
ORL	13.7	14.4	14.8	13.9	14.4	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cory Joseph	68	71	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.26	13	-10	23	16.1	16.2	-0.08	14.4	13.7	0.67
Patrick Patterson	69	71	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.38	5	-2	7	16.3	15.8	0.48	14.4	13.7	0.75
Terrence Ross	35	34	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.05	19	-16	35	14.2	17.1	-2.89	14.9	13.9	1.02
Bismack Biyombo	42	44	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.02	10	-7	17	14.5	17.2	-2.75	13.9	14.4	-0.48
Jonas Valanciunas	57	58	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.36	-2	5	-7	17.2	14.7	2.50	14.3	14.0	0.27
Kyle Lowry	89	92	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.55	-9	12	-21	17.0	10.9	6.06	14.2	14.1	0.05
DeMar DeRozan	78	80	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.32	-2	5	-7	16.4	15.3	1.13	13.9	15.1	-1.23
Norman Powell	6	6	-0.07	0.57	-0.65	-0.01	-2	5	-7	10.7	16.4	-5.78	14.2	14.2	-0.02
Luis Scola	40	39	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.07	-7	10	-17	15.9	16.2	-0.27	13.9	14.4	-0.50
James Johnson	36	35	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.15	-10	13	-23	16.2	16.1	0.08	13.7	14.4	-0.67

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Channing Frye	43	44	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-7	11	14.4	14.0	0.39	15.8	16.4	-0.59
Tobias Harris	89	86	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.43	10	-13	23	14.0	15.4	-1.46	16.9	12.5	4.37
Aaron Gordon	15	15	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	4	-11	12.4	14.5	-2.08	13.6	16.5	-2.94
Andrew Nicholson	7	7	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	9	-21	17.1	14.0	3.16	9.4	16.6	-7.17
Victor Oladipo	88	87	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.44	6	-9	15	14.1	14.7	-0.64	16.8	12.5	4.29
Evan Fournier	67	66	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.46	6	-9	15	14.1	14.4	-0.27	17.0	14.6	2.42
Mario Hezonja	30	28	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	8	-19	14.8	14.0	0.81	13.7	17.0	-3.33
Elfrid Payton	41	41	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	9	-21	14.6	14.0	0.61	14.2	17.3	-3.09
Nikola Vucevic	78	76	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.40	1	-4	5	14.2	14.0	0.21	16.6	14.7	1.97
Jason Smith	72	70	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.42	0	-3	3	14.1	14.3	-0.16	16.4	15.5	0.87

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.36,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.44,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.15,0.04,0.54,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 125, TOR 118	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.34,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.15,0.05,0	90.1%
MIA 93, SAC 91	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.39,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.29,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.33,0.29,0.35,0.32,0.27,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.26,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.17,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.46,0.31,0.15,0.08,0.08,0	89.8%
PHX 109, POR 102	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.5,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.29,0.25,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.37,0.29,0.31,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.13,0.2,0.22,0.34,0.22,0.3,0.33,0.27,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.15,0.29,0.28,0.54,0.32,0.21,0.15,0.02,0	89.8%