NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	125		Excitement	9.6 [104]		MVP	Mike James (TOR): +44.1%
Toronto Raptors	118		Comeback	1.4 [665]		LVP	Charlie Villanueva (TOR): -10.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.4	0.16	0.24	0.00	14	74%	0.40	0	0.00	3	67%	0.00
Sean Marks	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.12	0.12	0.01	9	80%	0.23	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.10
Rasho Nesterovic	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.05,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.09	0.14	0.01	10	70%	0.22	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0.09	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.23,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.01	19	70%	0.22	6	-0.14	8	100%	0.06
Beno Udrih	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.02	-0.02	3	67%	0.05	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	2	75%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Van Exel	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brent Barry	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	11	50%	0.06	1	-0.06	6	83%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	5	42%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.04
Bruce Bowen	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.04	-0.10	-0.00	8	60%	-0.02	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike James	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.32,0.39,0.49,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.44	0.44	0.14	0.30	0.01	28	55%	0.46	1	-0.01	10	80%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.28,0.28,0.18,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.16	-0.04	0.01	18	67%	0.14	2	-0.03	9	89%	0.03
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1	0.10	0.04	0.04	-0.02	18	57%	0.17	3	-0.07	8	62%	-0.04
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Pape Sow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	86%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Joey Graham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Antonio Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	6	39%	-0.00	2	-0.10	6	17%	-0.16
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	10	40%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.0	2.7	30.8	16.7	26.6	2.0	34.1	1.7	20.8	161.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +41.4%

TOR -1.4%

SAS +11.2%

TOR -3.4%

SAS +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	16.8	15.9	15.6	128.9	120.4	104.4
season	16.3	15.6		106.0	107.3
opponent	15.4	15.6		110.5	99.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.4	18.3	17.5	16.8	14.8	16.8
TOR	16.6	17.7	16.8	13.2	15.2	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Finley	64	62	0.83	-0.33	1.16	0.39	15	-8	23	16.6	17.0	-0.33	14.4	18.5	-4.12
Nazr Mohammed	38	36	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.39	3	4	-1	17.3	16.4	0.93	14.9	16.4	-1.55
Bruce Bowen	73	74	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.25	4	3	1	16.7	17.0	-0.33	16.4	14.3	2.03
Tony Parker	74	76	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.10	9	-2	11	16.8	16.6	0.19	16.3	14.4	1.88
Sean Marks	46	47	0.34	0.16	0.18	-0.04	13	-6	19	16.4	17.1	-0.65	16.3	15.5	0.83
Manu Ginobili	62	65	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.28	1	6	-5	16.6	17.0	-0.43	15.9	15.8	0.17
Beno Udrih	19	19	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.09	4	3	1	17.4	16.6	0.83	14.3	16.2	-1.92
Brent Barry	1	1	0.01	0.49	-0.49	-0.05	2	5	-3	3.0	16.9	-13.90	6.0	16.0	-9.97
Nick Van Exel	8	7	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.11	-5	12	-17	15.4	16.9	-1.50	20.0	15.5	4.45
Rasho Nesterovic	58	61	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	-0.12	2	5	-3	16.6	16.9	-0.33	16.6	14.6	1.96
Robert Horry	42	42	-0.31	0.81	-1.12	0.07	-13	20	-33	17.5	16.1	1.40	15.9	15.8	0.07

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pape Sow	18	18	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-7	7	12.1	16.7	-4.60	15.3	17.1	-1.81
Joey Graham	14	12	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.05	-5	-2	-3	15.0	16.0	-1.01	18.5	16.5	1.99
Antonio Davis	57	57	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.29	5	-12	17	17.4	13.8	3.55	17.4	15.8	1.62
Morris Peterson	93	93	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.40	5	-12	17	15.7	19.8	-4.14	16.7	17.2	-0.52
Mike James	81	81	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.29	1	-8	9	16.2	14.1	2.19	16.8	16.5	0.30
Jose Calderon	32	31	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	0.01	-11	4	-15	14.2	16.7	-2.40	16.5	16.9	-0.35
Chris Bosh	95	94	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.34	-1	-6	5	15.7	20.0	-4.26	16.6	20.3	-3.70
Matt Bonner	26	25	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.04	-18	11	-29	15.7	15.9	-0.24	16.7	16.8	-0.04
Charlie Villanueva	74	74	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.25	-11	4	-15	16.6	13.7	2.91	16.5	17.4	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.31,0.24,0.17,0.18,0.16,0.17,0.14,0.22,0.34,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.38,0.35,0.31,0.26,0.21,0.26,0.18,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.17,0.15,0.17,0.31,0.36,0.32,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.22,0.15,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 98, TOR 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.4,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.32,0.3,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.4,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.22,0.27,0.54,0.39,0.54,0.23,0.02,0	91.2%
TOR 106, ORL 103	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.36,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.34,0.44,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.21,0.31,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.35,0.24,0.23,0.18,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.2,0.16,0.1,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.37,0.15,0.04,0.54,0.25,0.16,0.06,0.15,0	90.1%
IND 86, VAN 76	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.28,0.21,0.2,0.21,0.29,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.3,0.21,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.34,0.22,0.11,0.19,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.21,0.1,0.01,0	89.8%