NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	100		Excitement	12.0 [13]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +40.8%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	58.9 [16]		LVP	Ian Mahinmi (IND): -23.7%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Monta Ellis	0.35	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.35,0.35	0.02	0.32	-0.01	17	49%	0.38	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.09
CJ Miles	0.04	0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	5	64%	0.05	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.12	0.05	11	41%	0.04	1	-0.02	7	86%	0.02
Glenn Robinson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lavoy Allen	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joe Young	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	-0.00	5	25%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Myles Turner	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Solomon Hill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	5	33%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Chase Budinger	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.01	5	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Hill	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	0.00	-0.10	-0.01	7	71%	0.10	3	-0.19	0	0%	0.00
Paul George	-0.10	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.23,0.24,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.1	0.07	-0.19	-0.02	29	52%	0.09	1	-0.19	4	75%	-0.05
Ian Mahinmi	-0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.24	0.04	-0.25	0.02	5	72%	-0.11	2	-0.13	8	62%	-0.30

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.07,-0.02,0.07,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.44,0.41	0.41	0.08	0.36	0.03	22	50%	0.41	0	0.00	10	90%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.27,0.2,0.5,0.24,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.17,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.03	-0.01	20	55%	0.16	0	0.00	16	81%	0.09
Luol Deng	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	0	0.00	6	83%	0.01
Tyler Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	0.00	10	38%	0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	6	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	3	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.07
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09	-0.09	-0.02	-0.07	-0.01	6	44%	-0.01	1	-0.08	4	75%	-0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.06	-0.10	0.01	12	54%	0.04	5	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	26.1	1.6	30.4	15.4	24.6	2.5	36.2	2.5	19.2	158.5
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	2.2	17.3	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -29.0%

MIA +46.2%

MIA +6.2%

MIA +22.9%

MIA +3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIA	NBA	IND	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	16.2	14.9	102.0	106.2	105.1
season	14.6	15.5		103.2	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.9		103.1	101.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
IND	15.2	17.4	16.6	16.7	15.4	16.4
MIA	14.8	15.3	17.7	16.8	17.9	16.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	19	19	0.30	-0.80	1.11	0.04	9	-12	21	16.3	16.4	-0.06	17.9	15.8	2.05
Lavoy Allen	44	43	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.24	12	-15	27	15.2	17.3	-2.11	17.0	15.7	1.31
CJ Miles	15	15	0.07	-0.57	0.65	-0.04	4	-7	11	15.1	16.6	-1.46	14.7	16.5	-1.87
Myles Turner	13	13	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.04	0	-3	3	17.5	16.2	1.35	13.7	16.6	-2.95
Monta Ellis	73	73	0.04	-0.54	0.58	-0.11	5	-8	13	16.9	14.8	2.16	16.7	15.0	1.66
Joe Young	22	22	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	1	-5	15.0	16.8	-1.76	14.7	16.7	-1.97
Chase Budinger	43	44	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.20	-12	9	-21	15.8	16.8	-0.94	15.4	17.0	-1.58
Ian Mahinmi	60	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.24	2	-5	7	16.2	16.6	-0.35	16.8	15.4	1.49
Paul George	76	75	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	-0.54	11	-14	25	16.1	17.3	-1.23	16.3	15.9	0.44
Jordan Hill	38	39	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.17	-5	2	-7	16.6	16.2	0.35	15.4	16.8	-1.49
Rodney Stuckey	55	53	-0.93	0.43	-1.36	-0.34	-20	17	-37	16.9	15.7	1.19	16.4	16.1	0.33
Solomon Hill	32	31	-1.13	0.63	-1.76	-0.63	-17	14	-31	18.2	15.5	2.80	16.9	15.9	0.96

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Johnson	64	65	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.27	23	-20	43	16.1	16.6	-0.50	16.9	15.3	1.60
Gerald Green	27	30	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.33	13	-10	23	14.9	16.8	-1.88	18.3	15.5	2.83
Chris Bosh	78	80	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.43	2	1	1	16.1	17.0	-0.94	16.0	18.0	-2.00
Justise Winslow	65	65	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.04	15	-12	27	16.0	16.8	-0.84	17.4	14.3	3.07
Dwyane Wade	69	68	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	3	-3	17.1	14.2	2.91	15.6	18.1	-2.55
Beno Udrih	16	16	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.05	-1	4	-5	13.1	16.9	-3.81	16.6	16.3	0.31
Amar'e Stoudemire	28	27	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	0	3	15.2	16.7	-1.50	17.1	16.1	1.03
Goran Dragic	61	62	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.10	-8	11	-19	16.7	15.6	1.10	15.9	17.2	-1.35
Luol Deng	49	48	-0.35	0.85	-1.20	-0.03	-11	14	-25	17.1	15.4	1.69	16.4	16.4	-0.03
Chris Andersen	19	20	-0.56	1.06	-1.61	0.15	-24	27	-51	17.4	16.0	1.46	13.2	17.2	-3.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.36,0.32,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.4,0.29,0.25,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.17,0.35,0.28,0.25,0.64,0.32,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.54,0.68,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 105, OKC 111	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.27,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.31,0.34,0.36,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.34,0.22,0.24,0.19,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.45,0.74,0.46,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.58,1	89.2%
TOR 97, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.22,0.13,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.55,0.34,0.84,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.94,0.91,1	89.1%
POR 95, ATL 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.09,0.21,0.46,0.33,0.55,0.7,0.56,0.69,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.91,0.92,1	89.0%