NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	95		Excitement	9.8 [66]		MVP	Rudy Fernandez (POR): +37.1%
Atlanta Hawks	99		Comeback	10.1 [154]		LVP	Steve Blake (POR): -31.0%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Fernandez	0.37	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.37	0.08	0.34	0.06	12	76%	0.43	3	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.05	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	17	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Juwan Howard	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	0.00	3	71%	0.06	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	0	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	10	54%	0.09	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.04
Brandon Roy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0,0,0	-0.01	0.02	0.01	15	53%	0.07	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.04
Martell Webster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Przybilla	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.05	-0.12	0.01	9	52%	-0.09	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.25
Steve Blake	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.26,-0.31	-0.07	-0.26	-0.01	11	36%	-0.23	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.03,-0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.14,0.08,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.03	0.20	0.02	31	51%	0.31	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.04
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.11	0.07	0.01	10	75%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.01	5	50%	0.06	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Josh Smith	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.04	0.00	0.03	14	57%	0.07	2	-0.06	7	57%	-0.11
Joe Smith	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Bibby	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	11	43%	0.02	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.13	-0.05	0.01	10	27%	-0.09	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.5	2.0	27.2	15.4	24.4	2.4	37.6	1.8	17.2	153.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +4.1%

ATL +7.2%

ATL +30.1%

ATL +8.1%

ATL +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	ATL	NBA	POR	ATL	NBA
this game	16.9	15.9	15.3	99.0	101.0	106.0
season	16.7	16.0		108.8	109.4
opponent	15.8	15.6		106.0	106.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	19.9	17.2	14.8	17.4	13.9	16.9
ATL	16.1	15.5	15.8	15.3	17.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Martell Webster	21	22	0.08	-0.58	0.65	-0.01	3	-7	10	17.7	16.7	0.96	13.7	16.5	-2.77
Joel Przybilla	36	36	0.02	-0.52	0.53	0.04	-1	-3	2	17.2	16.7	0.53	14.4	16.7	-2.31
Jerryd Bayless	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-4	4	8.2	17.3	-9.04	14.2	16.0	-1.77
Juwan Howard	13	14	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.05	-2	-2	0	18.6	16.7	1.96	14.5	16.1	-1.61
Andre Miller	56	54	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.19	-9	5	-14	18.0	15.4	2.64	15.7	16.1	-0.43
Steve Blake	72	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.47	2	-6	8	16.9	17.0	-0.06	16.6	13.7	2.95
Rudy Fernandez	59	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.50	1	-5	6	16.1	18.2	-2.07	15.2	17.0	-1.79
LaMarcus Aldridge	83	84	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.44	-2	-2	0	16.7	18.6	-1.96	16.1	14.5	1.61
Greg Oden	60	62	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.43	-3	-1	-2	16.7	17.2	-0.53	16.7	14.4	2.31
Brandon Roy	76	77	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.35	-9	5	-14	17.0	16.6	0.34	16.5	13.4	3.12

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Al Horford	70	69	0.66	-0.16	0.82	0.34	11	-7	18	15.9	15.9	0.03	17.1	16.4	0.66
Josh Smith	79	78	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.33	10	-6	16	16.6	13.1	3.50	17.6	14.2	3.38
Mike Bibby	76	77	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-8	20	16.5	13.7	2.77	17.5	14.4	3.11
Joe Johnson	78	78	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.29	8	-4	12	16.9	11.7	5.25	17.6	14.1	3.45
Marvin Williams	64	62	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.08	10	-6	16	15.4	16.8	-1.40	17.7	15.4	2.28
Jamal Crawford	51	50	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.36	-1	5	-6	15.1	16.7	-1.67	15.2	18.8	-3.54
Jeff Teague	13	11	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.09	-3	7	-10	10.9	16.6	-5.71	14.1	17.3	-3.19
Zaza Pachulia	38	37	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	7	-10	15.0	16.4	-1.43	15.9	17.6	-1.67
Joe Smith	9	8	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	0.08	-10	14	-24	13.6	16.1	-2.56	13.9	17.2	-3.32
Maurice Evans	12	10	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	0.13	-14	18	-32	16.3	15.8	0.52	13.7	17.3	-3.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.34,0.3,0.24,0.25,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.38,0.43,0.31,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.24,0.09,0.21,0.46,0.33,0.55,0.7,0.56,0.69,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.91,0.92,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 120, POR 123	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.35,0.38,0.28,0.27,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.27,0.22,0.29,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.22,0.31,0.27,0.23,0.22,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.24,0.19,0.17,0.35,0.39,0.61,0.79,0.77,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.95,0.85,1	91.7%
TOR 97, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.46,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.5,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.35,0.35,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.23,0.28,0.17,0.19,0.16,0.23,0.11,0.17,0.12,0.1,0.22,0.13,0.25,0.17,0.12,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.38,0.55,0.34,0.84,0.46,0.45,0.79,0.94,0.91,1	91.0%
UTA 111, NYK 118	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.22,0.23,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.29,0.26,0.27,0.24,0.19,0.14,0.17,0.22,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.4,0.53,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.92,0.5,0.39,0.63,0.85,0.98,1	90.5%