NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	116		Excitement	7.6 [340]		MVP	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (DET): +35.1%
Detroit Pistons	119		Comeback	2.2 [608]		LVP	Steve Blake (DET): -10.8%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Isaiah Thomas	0.22	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.19	0.08	0.04	20	75%	0.33	4	-0.10	11	100%	0.11
Jonas Jerebko	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.03,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.09	0.07	0.02	0.00	5	90%	0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tyler Zeller	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.02	0.00	7	67%	0.13	2	-0.09	4	50%	-0.02
Evan Turner	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,0.04	-0.02	0.06	-0.01	9	47%	0.10	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.02
David Lee	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
James Young	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	8	31%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jared Sullinger	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03	0.02	-0.03	0.02	13	57%	0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.02
Kelly Olynyk	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.05	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.01	9	45%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Amir Johnson	-0.07	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	10	55%	0.03	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.35	0.35	0.22	0.14	0.01	16	77%	0.39	1	-0.04	8	100%	0.08
Reggie Jackson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.01,0.15,0.2,0.15	0.15	0.04	0.14	0.02	16	56%	0.26	4	-0.11	9	89%	0.05
Aron Baynes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.05	-0.01	5	69%	0.13	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Anthony Tolliver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.02	-0.00	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Stanley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	62%	0.09	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Andre Drummond	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	10	53%	0.09	2	-0.06	10	30%	-0.09
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marcus Morris	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	9	55%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	4	0%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.4	31.3	15.6	34.2	1.8	42.2	150.8
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +25.5%

DET +14.7%

BOS -17.8%

DET +17.3%

DET +10.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	DET	NBA	BOS	DET	NBA
this game	14.2	14.1	14.9	113.7	116.7	105.1
season	13.9	15.0		104.5	104.9
opponent	15.1	15.0		105.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.5	13.6	16.0	13.7	14.2
DET	14.2	14.1	13.5	14.5	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyler Zeller	21	21	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.08	4	-7	11	15.3	13.9	1.42	11.8	14.7	-2.86
Isaiah Thomas	80	80	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.41	13	-16	29	13.8	15.3	-1.42	14.8	11.6	3.17
Jonas Jerebko	37	36	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.36	10	-13	23	13.2	14.7	-1.43	13.1	14.6	-1.54
Amir Johnson	41	42	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.15	1	-4	5	14.5	13.9	0.63	16.0	12.8	3.19
James Young	17	18	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.07	-7	4	-11	15.0	14.0	1.01	11.6	14.6	-3.06
David Lee	16	17	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	0.01	-5	2	-7	15.6	13.9	1.67	11.9	14.5	-2.56
Kelly Olynyk	39	38	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.06	-4	1	-5	13.4	14.6	-1.21	12.3	15.2	-2.89
Jared Sullinger	55	52	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	2	-7	14.4	13.9	0.53	15.9	12.1	3.80
Evan Turner	62	62	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.12	-12	9	-21	14.0	14.3	-0.28	12.3	16.8	-4.52
Jae Crowder	62	64	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.30	-6	3	-9	14.5	13.6	0.83	15.7	11.4	4.24
Avery Bradley	80	80	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.45	-4	1	-5	14.0	14.9	-0.90	14.2	13.5	0.74

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Blake	44	45	0.49	0.01	0.49	-0.06	19	-16	35	12.2	15.5	-3.38	14.7	13.7	1.03
Stanley Johnson	48	49	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.17	10	-7	17	11.8	16.1	-4.32	14.1	14.2	-0.07
Anthony Tolliver	33	32	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.12	9	-6	15	11.9	15.1	-3.16	15.5	13.5	1.96
Andre Drummond	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.32	1	2	-1	14.5	13.0	1.46	14.4	13.6	0.81
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	94	94	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.46	-4	7	-11	14.1	14.2	-0.19	13.9	16.9	-2.95
Marcus Morris	69	68	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.31	-1	4	-5	15.3	11.5	3.88	13.9	14.7	-0.87
Aron Baynes	26	25	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.03	8	-5	13	14.2	14.0	0.20	14.4	14.1	0.27
Reggie Jackson	58	57	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.47	-16	19	-35	15.5	12.2	3.38	13.7	14.7	-1.03
Ersan Ilyasova	64	65	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.20	-8	11	-19	15.2	12.2	2.94	13.8	14.7	-0.90
Joel Anthony	1	1	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.02	-3	6	-9	5.0	14.2	-9.17	14.0	14.2	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.39,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.31,0.36,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.82,0.77,0.69,0.74,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.52,0.71,0.8,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.81,0.85,0.9,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 100, MIL 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.43,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.78,0.79,0.77,0.77,0.81,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.62,0.74,0.85,0.76,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1	92.5%
SAS 89, BKN 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.48,0.38,0.37,0.32,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.39,0.32,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.69,0.67,0.68,0.78,0.7,0.85,0.72,0.91,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.4%
DEN 104, LAL 117	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.37,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.34,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.31,0.37,0.37,0.44,0.48,0.39,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.59,0.6,0.61,0.67,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.7,0.82,0.86,0.85,0.92,0.95,0.88,0.81,0.99,1,1,1	92.4%