NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	97		Excitement	6.2 [582]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +24.9%
Miami Heat	100		Comeback	40.3 [34]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -40.6%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.08	0.05	-0.02	9	63%	0.16	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mario Chalmers	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.01	7	63%	0.12	2	-0.04	5	80%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.01	9	72%	0.15	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
JaMychal Green	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.02	-0.01	3	67%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.06	0.06	-0.01	-0.01	20	59%	0.16	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Courtney Lee	0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Mike Conley	-0.41	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.41	-0.05	-0.37	-0.02	11	41%	-0.01	2	-0.40	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.17	0.06	-0.02	10	85%	0.27	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0.22	0.22	-0.05	0.26	-0.01	16	44%	0.26	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.02	0.03	9	70%	0.11	0	0.00	5	80%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.01	0.03	10	68%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Hassan Whiteside	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.01	5	69%	0.06	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Justise Winslow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.02	6	57%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.04	0.00	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.20	-0.03	-0.03	14	26%	-0.09	5	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	26.4	15.4	27.3	2.4	31.9	128.2
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM -10.3%

MIA +10.7%

MIA +6.0%

MIA +45.2%

MEM -1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIA	NBA	MEM	MIA	NBA
this game	16.0	17.0	14.9	111.5	113.6	105.1
season	15.7	15.5		103.4	104.5
opponent	15.1	14.8		103.1	106.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	13.0	18.1	16.5	16.6	16.0
MIA	19.2	17.0	16.3	15.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	39	40	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.16	-6	3	-9	15.9	16.0	-0.06	17.3	16.6	0.68
JaMychal Green	16	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.11	-10	7	-17	16.4	15.9	0.52	17.3	16.9	0.42
Zach Randolph	46	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.11	-5	2	-7	15.7	16.3	-0.64	17.5	16.3	1.24
Courtney Lee	71	70	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.50	7	-10	17	15.7	17.0	-1.28	17.1	16.4	0.64
Marc Gasol	67	68	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.59	9	-12	21	15.7	16.8	-1.16	16.9	17.2	-0.38
Jeff Green	80	82	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	0	-3	15.9	16.3	-0.36	16.9	18.0	-1.12
Mike Conley	48	48	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.57	3	-6	9	16.0	15.9	0.06	16.6	17.3	-0.68
Matt Barnes	68	68	-0.49	-0.01	-0.47	-0.19	-10	7	-17	16.6	13.6	2.97	16.5	18.4	-1.94

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	64	63	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.38	18	-15	33	16.2	19.1	-2.93	16.4	14.8	1.61
Gerald Green	59	60	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.37	12	-9	21	16.4	18.1	-1.77	16.9	13.9	2.94
Luol Deng	65	66	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.55	-1	4	-5	17.4	15.8	1.59	15.4	17.8	-2.45
Dwyane Wade	57	56	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.58	-7	10	-17	17.2	16.5	0.73	15.6	16.6	-1.02
Justise Winslow	47	45	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.18	3	0	3	16.8	17.1	-0.36	15.4	16.5	-1.06
Goran Dragic	63	63	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	4	-5	17.1	16.6	0.55	16.0	15.7	0.34
Udonis Haslem	14	13	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.06	6	-3	9	16.0	17.1	-1.14	15.3	16.1	-0.76
Beno Udrih	20	19	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.09	3	0	3	16.6	17.0	-0.39	16.6	15.8	0.80
Hassan Whiteside	51	50	-0.58	1.08	-1.65	-0.05	-18	21	-39	18.2	15.3	2.86	15.8	16.2	-0.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.47,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.31,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.23,0.2,0.15,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.06,0.12,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.15,0.21,0.29,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.17,0.15,0.07,0.05,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 83, BOS 86	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.13,0.19,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.12,0.14,0.09,0.08,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.16,0.09,0.26,1	92.1%
MEM 95, OKC 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.43,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.44,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.22,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.23,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.18,0.13,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.05,0.42,1	92.1%
NJN 93, MIN 95	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.25,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.1,0.11,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.19,0.11,0.15,0.31,1	91.3%