NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	118		Excitement	5.4 [742]		MVP	Harrison Barnes (GSW): +12.8%
Denver Nuggets	105		Comeback	1.1 [1259]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -14.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Harrison Barnes	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.11	0.03	0.01	9	81%	0.16	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Andre Iguodala	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.10	0.00	-0.00	6	100%	0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.04	0.02	16	58%	0.12	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Draymond Green	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.01	-0.01	7	93%	0.11	4	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	16	59%	0.12	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Ian Clark	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
James Michael McAdoo	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	3	62%	0.02	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Marreese Speights	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.06	7	29%	-0.02	2	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	0.01	0.04	6	58%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	5	80%	0.05	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.01	-0.01	7	22%	-0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.13	0.01	0.03	12	75%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	10	76%	0.17	4	-0.10	5	100%	0.03
Kostas Papanikolaou	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Randy Foye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	-0.00	-0.04	4	50%	0.04	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Jokic	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	0.06	7	52%	-0.03	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.04
Emmanuel Mudiay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.12	-0.02	-0.03	21	37%	-0.06	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Gary Harris	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.02	-0.05	0.06	11	50%	-0.08	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.08	-0.04	0.02	16	44%	-0.05	4	-0.09	11	91%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.3	30.9	16.7	28.5	2.8	29.2	137.7
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +63.6%

DEN -7.4%

DEN -6.1%

GSW +1.8%

DEN -2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	13.6	13.9	14.9	112.4	101.0	105.1
season	13.7	14.9		112.3	104.3
opponent	14.9	15.1		107.8	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.6	13.2	12.5	15.4	13.6
DEN	13.1	13.5	15.2	14.0	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	61	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.02	19	-6	25	12.8	14.7	-1.93	13.3	14.7	-1.41
Draymond Green	67	68	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.12	10	3	7	13.7	13.6	0.12	13.6	14.5	-0.87
Klay Thompson	69	68	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.13	9	4	5	13.9	13.1	0.79	14.2	13.4	0.83
Stephen Curry	60	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.06	11	2	9	13.4	14.0	-0.61	14.3	13.4	0.92
Harrison Barnes	71	72	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.20	3	10	-7	13.6	13.7	-0.07	14.1	13.6	0.53
Festus Ezeli	28	28	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.06	5	8	-3	12.9	13.9	-1.05	12.9	14.3	-1.42
Leandro Barbosa	39	38	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.00	4	9	-5	13.4	13.8	-0.39	14.0	13.9	0.15
Shaun Livingston	47	47	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.06	1	12	-11	13.4	13.8	-0.44	14.0	13.9	0.08
Marreese Speights	14	13	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	9	-5	14.4	13.5	0.84	15.4	13.7	1.66
Andrew Bogut	38	38	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.02	2	11	-9	14.5	13.1	1.37	14.4	13.7	0.73
James Michael McAdoo	11	10	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	-0.01	-1	14	-15	13.6	13.6	0.01	14.8	13.8	0.96
Ian Clark	20	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	15	-17	15.8	13.1	2.74	12.8	14.2	-1.33

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Randy Foye	31	32	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-16	19	13.9	13.9	-0.04	13.2	13.8	-0.63
JJ Hickson	23	22	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.00	1	-14	15	13.5	14.1	-0.58	13.7	13.6	0.12
Kostas Papanikolaou	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-14	15	8.5	14.1	-5.65	19.2	13.3	5.85
Darrell Arthur	74	74	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-10	7	14.1	13.6	0.51	13.6	13.6	-0.02
Emmanuel Mudiay	71	72	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	-3	-7	14.7	12.2	2.52	13.0	15.0	-2.04
Will Barton	59	62	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.25	-1	-12	11	13.4	14.6	-1.14	13.4	14.0	-0.59
Jameer Nelson	53	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.06	-12	-1	-11	13.2	14.7	-1.48	13.9	13.3	0.64
Nikola Jokic	58	58	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.09	-12	-1	-11	14.2	13.6	0.58	14.3	12.8	1.45
Danilo Gallinari	74	74	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	-0.07	-16	3	-19	14.2	13.4	0.80	13.3	14.4	-1.03
Gary Harris	73	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.07	-16	3	-19	13.9	13.9	0.04	13.8	13.2	0.63

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.28,0.35,0.3,0.38,0.31,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.39,0.44,0.46,0.33,0.33,0.26,0.28,0.25,0.3,0.24,0.21,0.26,0.27,0.18,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.08,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 83, UTA 65	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.35,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.26,0.26,0.22,0.17,0.27,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.17,0.12,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
SAS 90, GSW 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.41,0.39,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.3,0.28,0.36,0.31,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.28,0.33,0.24,0.24,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0,0	95.3%
IND 108, NJN 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.39,0.41,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.38,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.28,0.15,0.11,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%