NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	99		Excitement	3.2 [1145]		MVP	Paul Pierce (WAS): +10.0%
Washington Wizards	108		Comeback	1.1 [629]		LVP	Dennis Schroder (ATL): -10.9%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Jenkins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.00	0.05	12	61%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Pero Antic	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.02	5	80%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.04	9	39%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Scott	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0,0,0,0	0.04	0.00	0.04	15	54%	0.02	2	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Mike Muscala	-0.00	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	4	67%	0.01	2	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	0.01	-0.00	0.03	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.01	8	35%	-0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.08	-0.00	0.03	16	40%	-0.06	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.00	0.03	7	87%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nene	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	8	78%	0.07	3	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Marcin Gortat	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	13	50%	0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Otto Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	7	64%	0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Ramon Sessions	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	54%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.01
John Wall	0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.10	0.00	-0.11	20	55%	0.10	10	-0.09	4	100%	0.01
Kevin Seraphin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bradley Beal	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	17	45%	0.00	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.03	6	36%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.03	2	30%	-0.02	1	-0.00	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.2	1.8	28.1	15.8	25.5	2.0	35.0	129.4
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +30.5%

WAS +4.3%

WAS +13.5%

WAS +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	WAS	NBA	ATL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.9	15.2	15.1	100.0	109.1	104.2
season	14.9	15.1		106.7	102.9
opponent	15.3	15.4		101.7	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	13.7	14.8	13.7	13.3	13.9
WAS	15.1	13.4	15.1	17.3	15.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Elton Brand	44	45	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	-3	-3	13.4	14.3	-0.88	15.2	15.2	0.06
Kent Bazemore	56	56	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.14	-3	-6	3	14.9	12.5	2.41	15.8	14.4	1.37
Mike Muscala	53	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-6	3	15.1	12.5	2.53	16.1	14.2	1.90
Pero Antic	39	38	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	0	-9	14.4	13.6	0.76	15.0	15.3	-0.35
Shelvin Mack	55	56	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-7	5	13.4	14.5	-1.16	15.2	15.2	0.05
Mike Scott	62	62	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.29	0	-9	9	13.0	15.5	-2.53	14.5	16.3	-1.72
John Jenkins	74	76	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-4	-1	12.9	16.7	-3.77	15.3	14.8	0.48
Dennis Schroder	58	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.13	-7	-2	-5	14.8	12.7	2.12	15.3	15.1	0.21
Austin Daye	54	52	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.05	-10	1	-11	13.7	14.1	-0.43	14.3	16.2	-1.94

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Wall	75	74	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.04	14	-5	19	14.7	16.7	-2.06	13.7	14.6	-0.88
Paul Pierce	61	61	0.43	0.07	0.36	-0.07	17	-8	25	14.5	16.4	-1.91	14.2	13.3	0.90
Marcin Gortat	68	66	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.06	11	-2	13	14.9	15.8	-0.89	13.6	14.6	-1.02
Bradley Beal	74	74	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.26	3	6	-3	15.9	13.1	2.77	14.4	12.6	1.79
Drew Gooden	42	41	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.19	2	7	-5	15.6	14.9	0.66	13.9	13.9	0.01
Otto Porter	55	55	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.18	2	7	-5	14.9	15.6	-0.68	13.1	14.9	-1.78
Nene	54	56	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.08	4	5	-1	15.7	14.6	1.09	14.5	13.1	1.47
Kris Humphries	32	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.14	0	9	-9	14.3	15.6	-1.30	13.2	14.2	-1.05
Ramon Sessions	32	33	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.30	-9	18	-27	16.7	14.5	2.16	14.1	13.8	0.24
Kevin Seraphin	2	3	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	8	-7	17.5	15.1	2.36	17.0	13.8	3.20

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.52,0.65,0.74,0.76,0.76,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.83,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 104, GSW 125	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.71,0.77,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.86,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
MEM 101, HOU 113	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.52,0.53,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.76,0.73,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.94,0.97,0.94,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.9%
SAC 86, BOS 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.56,0.54,0.57,0.61,0.65,0.7,0.71,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.87,0.86,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.95,0.98,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.99,1	96.8%