NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	115		Excitement	7.8 [287]		MVP	James Harden (HOU): +58.9%
Oklahoma City Thunder	112		Comeback	1.6 [488]		LVP	Joey Dorsey (HOU): -7.2%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.59	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.16,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.42,0.59,0.59	0.22	0.36	-0.01	22	72%	0.65	3	-0.06	13	85%	0.03
Dwight Howard	0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	-0.01	15	59%	0.14	2	-0.05	7	29%	-0.04
Jason Terry	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	5	64%	0.05	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Josh Smith	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.06	-0.01	17	41%	0.04	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	10	70%	-0.02
Terrence Jones	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	43%	-0.00	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02	-0.04	0.03	0.00	6	36%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Pablo Prigioni	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	12%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Joey Dorsey	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.05	0.01	1	50%	-0.03	1	-0.05	8	37%	-0.09

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.21	0.21	0.17	0.04	0.01	15	73%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.17,-0.19,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	-0.06	0.08	-0.00	19	49%	0.14	5	-0.11	5	60%	-0.04
Steve Novak	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mitch McGary	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.11,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.02	-0.02	0.05	-0.04	0.03	29	55%	0.07	4	-0.09	15	80%	0.00
Dion Waiters	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	13	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kyle Singler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	-0.03	8	37%	0.00	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Steven Adams	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.01
D.J. Augustin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	37%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	33.8	3.5	26.1	16.5	33.3	3.5	44.2	161.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +41.2%

OKC -1.2%

OKC -9.3%

HOU +16.1%

HOU +3.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	OKC	NBA	HOU	OKC	NBA
this game	14.4	13.6	15.1	110.6	109.8	104.2
season	14.3	14.5		105.6	105.7
opponent	15.0	14.9		103.5	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.8	15.0	14.5	14.1	14.4
OKC	15.0	15.0	11.1	13.6	13.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	49	51	0.69	-0.19	0.88	0.46	8	-5	13	13.9	14.7	-0.81	14.0	13.1	0.90
Josh Smith	62	57	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.14	16	-13	29	12.7	16.8	-4.06	14.4	12.5	1.89
Jason Terry	54	52	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.39	4	-1	5	14.9	13.8	1.17	12.3	14.9	-2.53
Corey Brewer	65	63	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.46	-1	4	-5	14.2	14.7	-0.56	14.0	13.0	0.99
Trevor Ariza	71	69	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.17	8	-5	13	13.4	16.4	-2.93	13.3	14.1	-0.79
James Harden	80	79	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.32	-3	6	-9	15.5	10.6	4.92	13.0	15.5	-2.50
Pablo Prigioni	51	52	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	4	-5	13.5	15.2	-1.64	14.6	12.6	2.02
Joey Dorsey	38	38	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.07	-7	10	-17	15.2	13.9	1.29	13.4	13.7	-0.22
Terrence Jones	50	49	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	0.01	-9	12	-21	16.2	12.6	3.57	13.3	13.8	-0.54

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Steve Novak	15	15	0.08	-0.58	0.67	-0.18	9	-12	21	10.8	14.1	-3.27	12.7	14.7	-1.99
Mitch McGary	22	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.02	0	-3	3	13.7	13.5	0.18	15.2	14.1	1.09
Enes Kanter	81	83	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.40	6	-9	15	12.5	17.7	-5.20	14.7	13.2	1.47
Steven Adams	28	29	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.05	-7	4	-11	16.4	12.5	3.87	14.8	14.2	0.55
Russell Westbrook	86	89	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.38	2	-5	7	12.9	17.5	-4.64	14.6	13.1	1.52
D.J. Augustin	51	50	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.07	-9	6	-15	15.0	12.2	2.86	14.2	14.5	-0.32
Dion Waiters	83	86	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.45	2	-5	7	13.7	13.1	0.66	14.7	12.9	1.79
Anthony Morrow	80	81	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	1	-5	13.7	13.2	0.46	13.5	17.4	-3.94
Kyle Singler	64	65	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.12	-14	11	-25	13.9	13.1	0.77	14.4	14.3	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.5,0.41,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.34,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.21,0.31,0.2,0.24,0.27,0.2,0.14,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.18,0.12,0.14,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.33,0.31,0.45,0.24,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 85, HOU 78	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.33,0.3,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.22,0.2,0.26,0.18,0.22,0.22,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.24,0.39,0.45,0.61,0.45,0.09,0	92.8%
SAS 94, MIN 92	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.39,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.27,0.2,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.25,0.32,0.23,0.22,0.27,0.3,0.18,0.26,0.32,0.31,0.26,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.18,0.11,0.19,0.14,0.15,0.22,0.32,0.13,0.09,0.02,0	92.4%
LAL 107, PHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.33,0.26,0.3,0.35,0.4,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.27,0.27,0.26,0.23,0.17,0.24,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.19,0.21,0.15,0.06,0.12,0.17,0.23,0.14,0.24,0.27,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.16,0	92.3%