NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	95		Excitement	6.0 [621]		MVP	Trevor Ariza (HOU): +18.3%
New Orleans Pelicans	93		Comeback	5.8 [176]		LVP	Norris Cole (NOP): -15.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Trevor Ariza	0.18	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.15	0.04	0.01	13	81%	0.24	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13	0.06	0.06	-0.01	16	66%	0.19	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07	0.03	0.02	-0.02	20	51%	0.12	2	-0.05	9	67%	-0.01
Joey Dorsey	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pablo Prigioni	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	10	45%	-0.00	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	7	14%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.04	-0.02	3	25%	-0.05	4	-0.08	2	100%	0.01

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.05	0.01	5	67%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.10	-0.09	-0.02	16	78%	0.21	6	-0.19	4	100%	0.02
Quincy Pondexter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	10	45%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	0.01	18	48%	-0.03	0	0.00	14	43%	-0.13
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.02	0.03	7	44%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.01	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Eric Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	0.03	5	33%	-0.07	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	9	22%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.4	2.5	29.8	15.7	28.3	2.5	36.3	139.5
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +40.0%

HOU +3.7%

HOU +7.5%

NOP -3.8%

HOU +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	NOP	NBA	HOU	NOP	NBA
this game	15.4	16.4	15.1	105.6	102.2	104.2
season	14.3	15.8		105.6	106.3
opponent	15.2	14.9		106.1	103.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	17.2	10.6	14.1	19.9	15.4
NOP	13.3	20.7	17.0	14.4	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Donatas Motiejunas	69	69	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.41	4	-2	6	15.8	13.9	1.92	16.8	15.2	1.60
Jason Terry	50	51	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.20	11	-9	20	14.8	16.1	-1.30	17.7	14.8	2.97
Trevor Ariza	74	75	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.24	8	-6	14	15.0	17.2	-2.20	17.0	13.8	3.19
James Harden	70	70	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.44	-2	4	-6	15.4	15.1	0.29	16.3	16.8	-0.42
Corey Brewer	53	52	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.13	6	-4	10	13.3	18.3	-4.96	17.1	15.5	1.62
Josh Smith	43	46	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.36	-4	6	-10	17.1	13.8	3.37	15.8	17.0	-1.20
Dwight Howard	31	33	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	0	2	15.3	15.4	-0.18	16.1	16.6	-0.55
Pablo Prigioni	39	39	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.20	-7	9	-16	16.5	14.5	2.00	14.6	17.8	-3.24
Joey Dorsey	21	20	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.15	-8	10	-18	16.0	15.2	0.87	13.7	17.2	-3.45

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Alexis Ajinca	30	29	0.06	-0.56	0.63	-0.14	7	-9	16	15.1	17.1	-2.05	15.4	15.3	0.10
Dante Cunningham	50	50	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-3	4	16.9	15.9	1.02	13.8	17.4	-3.59
Omer Asik	48	48	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-1	0	15.6	17.4	-1.81	17.1	13.4	3.74
Quincy Pondexter	57	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.16	-7	5	-12	16.8	15.9	0.84	16.5	13.7	2.77
Norris Cole	35	35	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.04	-11	9	-20	18.6	15.1	3.46	12.5	17.2	-4.69
Eric Gordon	79	78	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.50	2	-4	6	16.3	17.5	-1.22	15.8	12.4	3.42
Anthony Davis	85	83	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.44	-2	0	-2	16.4	16.7	-0.24	15.3	15.7	-0.36
Tyreke Evans	71	72	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.55	1	-3	4	16.2	17.4	-1.23	15.4	15.3	0.13

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.81,0.83,0.84,0.79,0.8,0.74,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.33,0.36,0.33,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.23,0.29,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.3,0.2,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.07,0.13,0.03,0.03,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 106, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.61,0.67,0.69,0.73,0.68,0.72,0.74,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.29,0.28,0.23,0.2,0.13,0.1,0.08,0.15,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	93.5%
DET 91, NOH 76	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0	93.2%
CHI 100, POR 87	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.85,0.77,0.78,0.7,0.64,0.69,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.51,0.59,0.57,0.45,0.45,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.36,0.26,0.26,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.05,0,0,0	93.1%