NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	91		Excitement	5.3 [721]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +7.6%
New Orleans Hornets	76		Comeback	3.6 [307]		LVP	Chauncey Billups (DET): -14.8%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.08	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.06	-0.00	13	46%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	4	80%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Antonio McDyess	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	59%	0.07	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Jarvis Hayes	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.04	0.00	10	36%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lindsey Hunter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	36%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	0.02	0.06	21	49%	-0.01	2	-0.05	1	0%	-0.02
Chauncey Billups	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.07	-0.03	0.05	16	44%	-0.05	3	-0.10	9	100%	0.01

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Melvin Ely	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	-0.00	1	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.01	0.03	9	74%	0.12	3	-0.09	5	60%	-0.02
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.06	-0.04	0.03	14	58%	0.02	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	7	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	8	19%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Julian Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.03	14	41%	0.02	3	-0.10	6	100%	0.03
David West	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.11	-0.05	-0.03	15	27%	-0.11	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.5	28.5	16.6	23.7	1.8	32.9	131.1
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +32.0%

NOH -16.8%

DET +13.1%

DET +18.5%

DET +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NOH	NBA	DET	NOH	NBA
this game	18.6	15.1	15.4	107.1	88.4	105.7
season	16.8	15.9		108.8	109.6
opponent	15.7	15.8		104.0	101.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.7	17.8	20.0	19.2	18.6
NOH	11.8	16.5	15.1	17.8	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rasheed Wallace	66	67	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.03	11	4	7	17.8	21.2	-3.38	14.1	18.8	-4.71
Chauncey Billups	66	68	0.35	0.15	0.20	-0.03	13	2	11	17.5	22.3	-4.73	14.5	17.4	-2.87
Tayshaun Prince	65	65	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	9	-3	19.3	16.1	3.19	14.8	16.0	-1.23
Jarvis Hayes	34	36	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.05	13	2	11	19.1	18.2	0.93	15.8	14.6	1.14
Richard Hamilton	71	71	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.00	11	4	7	17.6	23.4	-5.79	15.1	15.4	-0.34
Jason Maxiell	35	36	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.04	8	7	1	19.4	18.0	1.43	15.8	14.6	1.23
Antonio McDyess	64	64	0.27	0.23	0.03	-0.03	10	5	5	18.3	19.3	-0.99	15.6	13.8	1.74
Lindsey Hunter	19	18	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	13	-11	22.3	17.5	4.73	17.4	14.5	2.87
Nazr Mohammed	5	5	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	14	-13	25.8	18.1	7.66	18.2	14.9	3.27

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hilton Armstrong	2	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.06	-2	-13	11	15.5	15.1	0.39	11.0	18.8	-7.77
Julian Wright	15	16	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	0.08	-3	-12	9	17.5	14.6	2.85	19.7	18.3	1.35
Morris Peterson	36	35	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-14	13	13.1	16.6	-3.54	16.7	19.9	-3.19
Melvin Ely	22	21	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.08	-3	-12	9	14.1	15.5	-1.32	21.3	17.7	3.58
Jannero Pargo	34	33	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.03	-7	-8	1	14.1	15.8	-1.65	20.5	17.4	3.05
Bobby Jackson	33	33	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	-3	-9	18.0	13.3	4.73	19.3	18.1	1.22
David West	70	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.06	-13	-2	-11	15.5	13.4	2.14	18.1	21.0	-2.93
Chris Paul	69	69	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.08	-10	-5	-5	15.3	14.4	0.88	18.3	19.9	-1.59
Peja Stojakovic	71	69	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	-0.14	-12	-3	-9	14.6	17.5	-2.85	18.3	19.7	-1.35
Tyson Chandler	78	77	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	-3	-9	15.0	16.0	-0.97	18.5	19.2	-0.73

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.59,0.65,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.67,0.7,0.69,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.17,0.3,0.25,0.26,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 101, ORL 86	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.61,0.71,0.62,0.51,0.44,0.5,0.42,0.34,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.17,0.19,0.21,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.23,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	94.1%
NOH 93, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.55,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.67,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.59,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.4,0.3,0.27,0.35,0.29,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.26,0.11,0.12,0.11,0.03,0.04,0.13,0.04,0.06,0.05,0	93.9%
PHI 98, POR 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.73,0.69,0.65,0.72,0.73,0.69,0.61,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.59,0.48,0.39,0.42,0.39,0.26,0.28,0.28,0.37,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.01,0,0	93.9%