NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	88		Excitement	7.7 [300]		MVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): +58.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	89		Comeback	102.1 [16]		LVP	Michael Beasley (MIA): -21.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mario Chalmers	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.02	0.03	-0.05	10	56%	0.14	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Henry Walker	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	3	150%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.13,0.08	-0.01	0.08	-0.01	14	60%	0.21	5	-0.13	7	86%	0.01
Goran Dragic	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.01	-0.03	12	59%	0.10	3	-0.04	3	33%	-0.03
Luol Deng	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	13	46%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.07	-0.00	-0.06	3	0%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Hassan Whiteside	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	0.01	7	47%	-0.00	1	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.22	-0.09	-0.14	-0.01	9	22%	-0.11	1	-0.11	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Khris Middleton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,0.59	0.59	-0.09	0.67	-0.01	17	36%	0.75	2	-0.17	2	50%	-0.01
Miles Plumlee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Henson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	5	42%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0	-0.00	0.05	-0.02	0.04	15	56%	0.02	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.03
Tyler Ennis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.06,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.02	0.01	11	56%	0.08	3	-0.10	3	67%	-0.01
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	10	67%	0.07	6	-0.12	4	100%	0.02
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	4	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	-0.02	13	38%	-0.09	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Carter-Williams	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.03	-0.02	4	40%	-0.01	6	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	3.3	30.8	15.7	30.3	2.4	38.9	145.0
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +24.6%

MIA -0.1%

MIL +25.4%

MIA -1.9%

MIL +2.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIL	NBA	MIA	MIL	NBA
this game	16.1	14.9	15.1	94.6	95.7	104.2
season	16.0	14.5		102.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.3		101.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.6	17.1	15.7	16.7	16.1
MIL	16.0	13.4	16.3	14.0	14.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Henry Walker	51	50	0.43	-0.93	1.36	0.34	3	-4	7	17.2	14.6	2.62	15.1	14.7	0.40
Mario Chalmers	51	49	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.17	6	-7	13	15.8	16.4	-0.64	16.0	13.7	2.21
Chris Andersen	50	49	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.03	4	-5	9	16.8	15.2	1.66	15.1	14.7	0.35
Hassan Whiteside	23	24	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	0	-1	15.3	16.3	-1.00	15.5	14.7	0.79
Goran Dragic	77	79	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.64	9	-10	19	15.6	18.4	-2.80	15.5	11.9	3.60
Luol Deng	67	68	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.62	2	-3	5	15.3	17.9	-2.59	14.9	14.8	0.10
Udonis Haslem	32	33	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.56	-1	0	-1	14.7	16.7	-1.99	14.5	15.2	-0.71
Dwyane Wade	62	61	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.40	-15	14	-29	16.4	15.3	1.10	13.6	17.4	-3.80
Michael Beasley	52	52	-1.06	0.56	-1.62	-0.71	-12	11	-23	16.8	15.1	1.67	14.3	15.7	-1.42

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zaza Pachulia	65	67	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.38	18	-17	35	13.9	17.2	-3.29	16.4	15.1	1.30
Giannis Antetokounmpo	75	76	0.66	-0.16	0.83	0.43	8	-7	15	14.5	16.4	-1.90	16.6	13.7	2.87
Ersan Ilyasova	58	56	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.61	0	1	-1	14.6	15.4	-0.73	15.4	17.1	-1.71
Jerryd Bayless	73	72	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.52	0	1	-1	14.5	16.3	-1.77	16.1	15.8	0.32
Khris Middleton	77	75	0.52	-0.02	0.53	0.52	0	1	-1	15.0	14.6	0.35	15.8	17.3	-1.52
Michael Carter-Williams	49	51	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.15	6	-5	11	15.4	14.3	1.13	16.3	15.8	0.53
Miles Plumlee	29	30	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.03	2	-1	3	15.6	14.6	0.98	16.7	15.7	1.00
Tyler Ennis	8	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.02	-6	7	-13	16.5	14.8	1.74	16.0	16.1	-0.06
O.J. Mayo	10	11	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.04	-7	8	-15	16.2	14.8	1.44	15.1	16.2	-1.09
John Henson	21	20	-0.38	0.88	-1.27	0.09	-16	17	-33	17.8	14.1	3.68	14.5	16.5	-1.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.33,0.26,0.22,0.25,0.12,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.21,0.22,0.27,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 77, LAC 82	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.22,0.13,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.12,0.1,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.28,0.33,0.42,1	91.9%
MIL 96, TOR 97	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.5,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.49,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.33,0.21,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.05,0.18,1	91.8%
HOU 75, SAS 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.42,0.33,0.3,0.42,0.38,0.32,0.34,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.22,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.42,1	90.7%